Saturday, July 03, 2010

H&S for 2010 & 50day/200day CROSSOVER

This CHART from HELGE ALSO shows potential for JULY 9th and or 12th LOW
He dates his graphs by Monday dates so don't be MISLED by that demarcation
Since the ENERGY for JULY 9th seems to indicate an intraday CHANGE/TURN,
then we MUST be VIGILANT
for what might be a 2:30 pm low right on the 50%/13 day cycle pivot.

Chart from BINVE at Market Thoughts blog

July 9th = 192 tr days from Oct 2nd, 2009 = 192 tr dys/ 8 = 24 repetitions

July6th = 333 tr days March 9th or 3 times 110 day cycle
July 6th is also 424 tr days Oct 27,2008 or 53 repetitions of 8 day cycles

13 hrs at 10am, might be a high pivot, but could be just a rebound off a lower open

23.6% /13 day at 11:26
8day cycle low
90bars at 10;30
156bars at 4pm

Reading for the day
Shake up

WEd has a much improved READING
BOOST income
high confidence
$$ benefits

Upbeat in AM
MIXED trend day=Gemini type day
Afternoon = $$ problems

controversy in the AM
gains & romance later

more later


Jay Strauss said...

FOCUS on JULY 15 to 30 time period
and not good for BULLS

Arch has mentioned August 1st, and on JULY 30th is an extremely dangerous energy event

The chart also shows as mentioned
a 50 day crossover of the 200 day line last week.


rrman said...

this seems to line up with Helge also for you trendline loves li me..

rrman said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
soybeans said...

This market has too much quiet after voilating important support..smells like 2008 lehman all over again ..goin under 9000 by middle of july

soybeans said...

one thing I left out fibo support is 50 % ..942..61.8 %.. 877
New lows at the end of the year .under 6600

Jay Strauss said...

Focus ALSO a little further OUT on OCTOBER 4th

That DATE offers the BEST chance for the 2010LOWS inferred by the H&S that we are seeing break support

But for NOW, we are currently targeting JULY6th and 9th for short term intermediate lows

Some have mentioned the 12th as a candidate for that low, but the energy the week of the 15th is much too strong.

The ECLIPSE of JULY 11th should be the culmination & represent a TURN of positive events AFTER this week's LOWS exacerbated by that eclipse.

None of the above NEGATES or changes what is coming from the 16th to 30th as previously mentioned


rrman said...

the big upwave helge shows at the end of last week timed the euro to the T but the /es has to make that move if you look back at the big upwave that topped on the 21st it was several days late BUT it came...

benjoyce said...

This is from Alphahorn's blog. The CCI 233 appears very useful.

It appears to indicate an up opening on Tues

What I have found to be the best leading indicator for equities is the $TNX (10 year treasury note yield) and the associated indicators that you will see on the chart below. On a daily chart (this is true for ALMOST ANY STOCK TOO!) the CCI 233 is a must indicator! When it breaks below 100, it marks a change in the trend. Now, although that is a trailing indicator in terms of the $TNX, it is generally a LEADING indicator in terms of equities -SEE THE RED VERTICAL LINE! For those of you who want to continue to day trade, this chart can also alert you to daily trend changes. Read notes 1,2, and 3 and remember how I pointed to this Tuesday's drop Monday night before it happened by highlighting the previous day's negative divergence between the $TNX, which was down 2.3% and the equities, which were flat to up

Jay Strauss said...

13hrs cycle at 10am on Tues.
IF a high, should be HOD
IF a LOW should be LOD

Play it accordingly

As ive mentioned about HELGE

HE HAS DIRECTION nailed, but
sometimes ITS early and somtimes its late

couple of scenarios for next week seem valid

IF we rally Tues & WEd
then July9th should offer a low at 1009 or less

If they drop Tuesday to 1009
then we STILL get a rally Wed & part of Ths before dropping back to 1009

THE WEEK AFTER HAS STRENGTH till early 16th- 13 hrs at 10am


IF we Dont get the LOW to

Abdullah said...

I am currently in the Bull camp but not for long. It looks like we will see a pop to 1075 in the next two weeks. What's the reason for the market moving up? There is none except for the hype over earnings season. The FED will try their best to pump this market UP in the next 2-3 weeks.

Abdullah said...

A Death Cross is really bad at predicting future price movements. If you look at how the S&P fared one month after the previous four Death Crosses:

December 21st, 2007 was the most recent Death Cross. One month later the S&P 500 was down 11.72%.

July 19th, 2006. One month later the S&P 500 was up 2.99%.

August 18th, 2004. One month later the S&P 500 was up 2.47%.

October 31st, 2000 we had yet another Death Cross. One month later the S&P 500 was down 8%.

To me, a Death Cross is pretty useless. It’s one technical signal I don’t put much stock in.

Anonymous said...

has anyone thought,that with the quick drop in the 10 year bond and the flatenning of the yield curve,the Fed may just LOWER the discount rate?

just a thought,since these guys are hell bent on spending all the while taking care of their GS cronies (half the admin)...

I remember they raised the discount rate 1/4 point in february...

just a thought and it would be a nice way to get the djia to gap up 250 points tues...

either way,with the VIX and Eur/Usd SCREAMING rally, I think the boys will gap it up tues as it faked out retail all it needed the last 3 days

benjoyce said...

Doesn't earnings season kick off with Alcoa? that July 12, mon. so we still have 4 trading days till then

Jay Strauss said...

might mean NOTHING

WHAT ELSE WAS going on at the TIME?

Was the a H & S formation coinciding

ITs just like any other INDICATOR


Indicators MUST be used as to get a TOTAL picture of future events

On that note
the PC ratios FRiday were bearish in nature