Wednesday, July 07, 2010


That did NOT go well for the EKG today now set back for 2 days in a row.
that hasnt happened since March, when I first started publishing it.

we just went from OVERSOLD on Friday to NOW overbot
yesterday's PC ratios were 80% Bullish
Today's PC ratios are 80% BEARISH

Reading for tonight calls for $$ Crisis- no idea what that means,
but we'll see if Europe is effected tonight

10am = 13 hr cycle HIGH, but it could be only a rebound high off an early retreat
IF the EKG rolls over into a lower open tomrrow, rather than a lower close today

Just as I mentioned yesterday, the EKG reflects 156bars on open today

but a mid day rebound should then give way to more selling in the last 1 or 2 hours

Wed should open higher in reverse of today, and even it it opens low, then 10am should offer
a great TURN lower from that short term high

July9th LOW
JULY15th High with 16th TURNING LOWER
July 30th LOW
August 10th as published = 360 day LOW from March 6th = 1/2 of 144wks= 72 wks exactly



rrman said...

Jay you show 10am eastern as the hod today?

Anonymous said...

textbook cup and handle completed on the 5 minute chart,unfortunately i missed it as was at 31.4 looks a nice short though,so selling me some.

Anonymous said...

completely disagree....

I think we JUST started this rally...

yes we'll "bob and weave" the new uptrend,but make no mistake,per the nova/ursa index and timing,all you need to look at is the rally from 6/8 bottom into opex...

SAME thing will happen here per the nova/ursa...look at 60 min charts and I believe we are ,today,at the 6/10 point...

higher into opex,then back in tza for me,but not until then

RickyBobby said...

shake & bake baby

we've only just begun

AS said...

Francois - can u explain what you mean by nova / ursa ?

Ricky - what are you looking for - up / down ?

Anonymous said...

i said in my post yesterday the bottom was likely in.todays short is nothing but an intra day trade that didnt work out for me francois, 3pts dropped but only half worries lol.

Anonymous said...

have a small turn lined up for around 11:25,but its not a clearly defined one.if it does show it should be a high.

RickyBobby said...

My work says we are cose to a BUY signal on my version of the 13 day cycle. We got more upside baby.

Anonymous said...

any minor retrace should be bought...
I know jay says don't look at my "amplitude" so I don't...

ALL I KNOW is s+p SHOULD test that 1073-1080 area BY OPEX..

just loot at 6/8 bottom into June opex...

rydex nova/ursa is real money put/call and it's 3:1 RETAIL puts,just like 6/8...the BEST indicator as to STUPID money

the SMART money LOVES retail on the wrong side of the rowboat as we ALL know...

yesterday achieved what the smart money wanted;they wanted BEARS saying"wow! look how weak this market is,I want MORE puts/shorts/tza/etc...


benjoyce said...


where do i find Rydex nova ursa??

benjoyce said...

I bet Jay will say (and I don't blame him) that the "down open" happened pre-market.

Now it will be interesting to see if the sell off happens.

Some of you are bullish here in contrast to what jay says over the last half of the week. But you don't say why your bullish so your not helping me

Anonymous said...

wow ben

1) eur/usd rally from 6/29 60 minute hammer @ 10am and 8pm
2) vix down from thurs/fri even as market went lower
3) my candle analysis

I said 5x it's a coiled rubberband ready to unwind to the upside

donno how much more clear I could be

Jay Strauss said...

that 10am IS FOR TOMRROW at the 13 hr cycle

Could be a LOWER high than today

Struggling NOW at noon to 1pm at the 1042

Macd peaked on first rally this am

Combining yestrday EKG with today might end up looking exact- see it later


Jay Strauss said...

Next week ENERGY looks POSITIVE & strong as Ive mentioned several times

In between is the CYCLE convergence LOW due on the 9th

Im Catching a short today
& buying long on Friday


Jay Strauss said...

as I mentioned to rrman
combining yest & today EKG might end up being perfect

Sometimes, ive noticed the EKG late DIP rolls over from the previous day

I'll post a chart of the 2days against 2 days of ekg after makrt
just to get the effects of it


Anonymous said...

imho the low you project,assuming it happens, will SIMPLY be a small retrace in this new uptrend and will NOT go below 1035-1038 s+p...

this will be JUST LIKE the 6/8 to 6/21 run and we are similar today to 6/10's trading...

that should take us to a high cerca 7/16

rrman said...

Good call on the high Jay Helge agrees with you faz and tza are on sale

rrman said...

6/3 we moved halfway up the /es channel then fell back to the bottom of the channel before a quick move to the top

Jay Strauss said...

YES that could very well happen

in other words
the HIGH today will be offset by a low on friday at the 1030ish level.

rather than sell off from today's high sub spx 1000 on friday

If they get to 1070 today < i would begin to think about door
#1 above

but any thing today from 1040 to 1050 & NOT holding- I think would indicate weakness thus looking at door #2


Jay Strauss said...

AT 1:45
activity index
has plunged to 66

IT was at 66 ALL NITE
rose to 166 at 11;30
and has cascaded back to 66
at 1:45

If that is an indication of
a loss of buying energy, then we should see the results of it in lower prices within the next 90 minutes


benjoyce said...

what do you mean by door #1&2?

AS said...

Francois - how you get the nova/ursa charts - is there a link ?

Anonymous said...

.29 on 7/2 and .26 on 7/6!!!

what a bear trap!

no way we see 1000 as many have said befor 1070-1080...may even try the 1110-1130 range into opex!

Anonymous said...

jay, have you considered that EVERYTHING may have inverted?

even the activity index?

I don't know how it works, but bulls look amazingly active right now...

rrman said...

francois the nova/ursa index is very interesting will be interesting to see how low we go tonight sometimes when we are transitioning from a down week to a upweek Helge can skip the last wave down and the upwave before it extends into the big up wave

rose2797 said...

rrman, r u still long TNA and FAS. or you are planning to buy on friday

Anonymous said...

still long tna and I called 41-42 window(gap) as nova ursa was screaming rally

also,as you and I pointed out last weds-fri

eur/usd AND vix told us all we needed to know!

Jay Strauss said...

The MKT is doing exactly what the readings indicated

INcome boost Tues
income boost WEd
NOW expect a high at 10am tomrrow, and reversal

Thsday- aftnoon problems
Fr- Controversy & disputes


benjoyce said...

This site screws me up really bad.

I have to leave

RickyBobby said...

GERMANY is GONE!!!!!!!!!!!


RickyBobby said...


u need to find your own system.

Don't come here until u do!

Did u like my GAP UP and futures reversal call yesterday?

Thats my system.

benjoyce said...


What is your system?

Jay Strauss said...

How do you evaluate the mkt?
DO you have a set of RULES that you use to determine bull or bear?

I track MULTIPLE sets of DATA

which I do mention most of the time

I do keep a DAILY LOG on a legal pad for 5 days on each page
PC ratios
SPREAD sheet of arms data & related indexes some of which are my own.

plus plus plus

If your not keeping track of things, then IT is very easy to become confused


AS said...

Ricky - u make good calls - can u share your system / what u look for ?

Reza said...


I think Netherlands will win the cup.
Stats from 1982 say that the team that beats Brazil in the second round wins the cup. Also, the team that lost the first game never won the world cup, which puts Spain out of question.
What do you think

soybeans said...

Jay..your EKG chart today looks like of a person who was short and had to go hospital

rrman said...

the only thing that worries me about a rally is that /dx is at the bottom of the channel and the move up a bit ago is a bounce off that...the rally in early june had the /dx at the top of the will be hard to rally with the /dx moving up

rrman said...

/dx chart!/photo.php?pid=31413538&id=1127956965