outside day

Theres only ONE MORE move left for the bullish side of WAVE P2

ITS called an OUTSIDE DAY or REVERSAL

we need an INTRADAY RALLY move higher today to 1053
FOLLOWED by a collapse to a lower level
breaking under the 4th wave of lesser degree.

POWER INDEX shows such is LIKELY TODAY
with a RUN UP to 600, & subsequent drop
to 425 later today

It also depicts a low of 300 on the 17th & 18th
__________________________________________
Ravi said...As mentioned earlier around the close,
we most likely finished a iii of (v) from 991.71 low.

Most likely scenario tomorrow is that we correct in a iv
early AM towards 1046.41 (38.2% of iii and low of lower degree fourth)
and then move up to complete v of (v) from 991.71 towards 1052-1053 area.

______________________________________________-

in addition to all the above
According to astro transits & readings, the end move should come today

more later
Jay

UPDATE & new thread

Joseph, I will offer my outlook for SPT and October
at the risk of being sent to jail by ONE anon,
who Im sure has not offered ANYTHING
constructive for the group to use for more effective trading

Remember, this is only my opinion, and anyone trading on my outlook
is doing so at their own risk.
I do NOT offer any advice as to what or when to buy or sell-
I only offer my own trades and sometimes LIKE any trader, I lose$ also

Having said that for the benefit of anon, Heres my outlook for the next couple months

SPT and OCTOBER are set up to SELL OFF, but as any market,
it will have some WILD gyrations

SPT 14 as per previous data for TIME and PRICE WILL have SQUARED OFF.

Heres a SUMMARY

SPT14th TOP of wave P2
DOWN on SPT 15 to 17
LOW on SPT 17th as per FLASH also
Rebound start on 18th - RoshHashanah to 22nd

23rd to 25th DOWN AGAIn and YES the 25th & or 28th should be an IMPORTANT
LOW & or TURN
28th is YOM Kippur, and the mkt should start to move SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER
into
The NEXT 2 Bradley dates of OCT 2nd & 10th, both of which look like highs
for other reasons than JUST Bradley
NEW 2009 HIGHS ?? Maybe, but I doubt it & IT REALLY WONT MATTER,
if we are trading short term.

As per FLASH, per private email
WE BOTH agree on another MAJOR SLIDE from OCTOBER 10th to 16th

I think thats MORE than we need to know for now, and any further projections wont
be remembered by anyone anyway.

FLASH has MANY turn dates within the next 2 weeks, and he is RIGHT about them.
(15-17-18)-(17-21-22) (21-22-23) (17-21-24)- BUT how can anyone make sense of it?
he calls the above four 3 legged turns ?????????

But it does seem to fit in with increased VOLITILITY for the next 10days

Flash is working on a system derived from Keplers law which he calls CALEB
maybe it will offer more details as he develops it.

More later, maybe
Jay

DOLLAR - NEW LOW

From Daneric's site - a great chart of the DOLLAR

24 days from previous LOW on Aug6th at 77.43

Today closed at 76.85
which might have qualified for a WAVE 5 BOTTOM

IF tomrrow's dollar explodes UPWARD, we will see a complete reversal
which includes DOWN stocks & gold
of course we know that gold could not hold 1007 at this time.

Its NOw 9days till Spt 23rd and the 55 tr day cyle from July8th & 110 from April20th
18th NEW moon should be a low following the full moon high on the 4th;

more later
Jay

TODAY's CHART

TODAY Topped out at 1;15 pm
Activity index fell back to 66
It would appear that 1;15 to 1:26 at the Moon 120 Sun
has tipped the scales for the moment at spx 1036 & 9577

more than a typical 78.6% retracement, and as I posted they got to 92% at SPX1036
AND 92 % got an EXACT 9578 today on the DOW

_________________________________________________
THERE are a NUMBER of SHORT term cycles CONVERGING on FRIDAY at 10am
38.2% of 13day at 10:12am
18days or 3 x 6 tr days from Aug 17th - low to low
9 days from Aug28th high to low
39 hrs from Spt2nd lo to lo

DOLLAR appears to be making FRESH NEW LOWS and will be at 24 days tomrrow
but it doesnt rule out the morning of the 11th

__________________________________________________________
Heldge's graphs shows a QUICK DIP should be NEXT, but it also indicates a QUICK rebound
this is consistent with the above cycle lows at 10am Friday
AS WELL AS a BRADLEY change date on Monday Spt14th
FASCINATING as the READING for Monday calls for a STRONG START
BUT the NEXT 3 days SPT 15-17 are WROT with A NEGATIVE CLUSTER

COY, you had mentioned a LOW on Friday and the above CYCLES could be IT
I went looking to confirm that, and it looks like I found it.

the GAME PLAN NOW would be to COVER shorts on FRIDAY
at 10am GIVEN THE ABOVE scenario plays out as described.

SPX 1014 SEEMS To be the MIDDLE GROUND for the last decline and rally from
August 28th, to SPT 9th and could be the cycle low for friday AM.

And that COULD leave the DOOR oopen JUST enuf to get ONE MORE thrust
BACK to 1036 / 1040

more later
Jay

UPSIDE exhaustion??

Looks like CLX shows latest rally with fewer stocks participating
Thats a WANING of support and $$ from investors


Today's futures higher open looks like a GIFT to the bears

Heres my trade dates for SPT

4th HIGH - turns into 8th for high, but not on close?
9th low at close
14th high at close
17th low at close
22nd high at close
25th low at close
28th TURNS higher into early October

Some are comparing this year to 1987-- DUHH- they do that every year
BUT this time it might be closer to 1987 than ever before-
We will explore that a little later on

Jay

6 month chart

Ravi
Look at the 6 month chart above

Looks like the HIGh was hit on the 27th as we know
and what followed might be an A & B now looking for C wave LOWER
correcting the 170 pts run from 870 to 1040

170pts x fibo 3s
fibo levels at 975- 955- 935
40 pts rule of thumb = 1040 - 80 = 960

Chart above shows OBV topped 8/27
MACD crossed over on 14th and again on 27th
Ult Osc peaked on 7/28 & secondary turnover on 8/27

39 hr & 26 hr cycles converge NEXT on 9th at 4pm and
OR 10th at open
WHICH
also converges WITh 180 bars at SAME TIMES
Hadik has a SIGNIFICANT cycle of SPT 8 to 11

8th reading calls for disappointment
9th = possible crisis
midnite high tide inverted
10th CHANGES = Strength & confidence
11th = UPBEAT day
14th =Positive day
another change takes place on 15th


More later
Jay

UPDATE & new thread

START new THREAD

Employ report subtle

Europe STILL higher over 1%

Activity index gyrating
at 7am = 300
at 8am = 100
at 9am NOW = 225
Resembles the FUTURES this AM

Power index still climbs from 550 at yesterday's close to 600 this AM - then lower
and is at 300 by the 9th

Propens index peaks this AM & heads LOWER by close into Satdy

IF 204 bars did not hit at yesterdays close, it might be a minor drag at open today

full moon is at noon

Im still planning to SHORT , but might not wait for 1021 which we might not get
spx 1009 could offer some strong resistence

more later
Jay

GOLD

Elliott wave 3 way back in FEb

CONTRACTING TRIANGLE A-B-C-D-E

E was just at 934 on -- YUP -- August 17th

A 5th wave THRUST to 1000 COULD END the 5th wave NOW,
or on October 3rd to 10th if they stretch it out that far..

And I think they WILL as it also follows EQUITIES to the OCT10th
PEAK that Ive mentioned a few times

in other words, it could take 5 waves within the 5th wave to complete the cycle

& At 978, its at a strong resistance point right now, BUT....

___________________________________________

Im STILL expecting an UP THRUST at tomrrow's open
I dont think it will last more than 15 minutes at most
SO, I will be positioned to SELL at 9:35am- THAT IS :: GIVEN a rally open


TODAY we had the following bar cycle LOWS
60bars at 10:30
90bars @ 1pm
126BARS @ 4pm

NOW heres an interesting POINT
Since 126bars HIT at CLOSE, it LEAVES the DOOR OPEN for tomrrow's rally

NOW, Im sure YOU remember I posted another take away AT
11am to noon tomrrow's converging multiple cycles & astro

Ravi
what WAVE count do we get after the LOW at 991.79?
It looks like an "a" to 1000.34 at noon
and 'b" at close
"c" could carry to 1009 with Dow up 100 pts

Then The 13 day cycle low would = the X wave
and ONE more SET of 3 waves to Friday AM at 1009 to 1016 area.

THSDAY
POWER index has a rise to 450, then a LOW at 350, then ends the day at 500
Friday starts at 600, and falls to 450 by days end
the POWER INDEX 7 day outlook is set at a low 300 on the 9th.

More later
Jay

UPDATE & new thread

-2.90 spx Futures at 8:30 are consistent with the 39 hour LOW due at 9:45 to 10am

FIBO level of 991.55 is next level @ 78.6% retracement

FROM there, the PROPENS index shows UP for the day, and astro points to 3;30
Propens index makes a dive either late today or Tomrrow which is consistent
with the power index as well as the 13 day cycle as previously mentioned several times

Summary
TODAY -Down at open, then Up till 3;30
Thurs - UP open, maybe - drop into 11am-noon = next pivot low- then UP
Fri TOPS at 10am or by 11am latest on the Employment HYPE

IMO, FRIDAY open - BEST SHORT of the WEEK, expect sell off to CONTINUE on 8th
9th OPEN LOWER on 39 hr cycle at 10am

I hope some of you are catching onto the 26& 39 hr cycles
Aug 17 + 39 hrs = Spt 2nd at 10am [[ lo to lo ]]
Aug 31st at 10am LOW + 39 hrs = Spt 9th at 10am
___________________

Aug 28th @ 12:30pm + 26 hrs = Spt3rd at 11am to noon [w] other cycles converging
Aug 31st Low @ 10am + 26hrs = Spt4th HIGH- YES HIGH- low to high @ 10am


more later
Jay

Tuesday 9/1

Whats NEXT ?

With all my updated comments, I still get that question

Whats NEXT ?

I thought I was clear, but what do I know?

Today's futures are opening LOWER as of 8:30

As PREVIOUSLY written
228bars did not hit at 4pm yesterday,
thus IT MUST HIT AT OPEN TODAY
which appears obvious from futures off 4.50 at 9am & was off 7.50 earlier

IMO, pivot today should be at noon @ 258bars and Merc 135 Jupiter
TODAY is an 8 day LOW & there is a mild neg lunar aspect as 4pm
___________________________

in addition
Another pivot at 10am tomrrow on 39 hrs cycle
I could be wrong, but I think this one will be the Low of the WEEK
Wed is an 8 day TURN, thus adding to the change in trend posture today
_____________________________

Another pivot at 11am to noon on Thsday
should lead to the anticipated RALLY of the week
higher close leading to a BURST on Friday am with the Employ # as a catalyst

More later,
Jay

Sunday update

NO changes as per prior comments


Power index lays out next week as such

Monday
SMACK down still expected 10 AM & secondary at noon-
no way to know which will be the LOD
index starts at low 300, and finishes at 500
propens index THSDAY was at 3009, and MAKES a PIVOT LOW Monday at 2980
It was fALLING at the close Friday, but stocks did NOT have time to react
NOW THEY DO, and THEY have been chomping at the bit to SELL

Tuesday power index is mixed, but should reach a high at 3pm
after a choppy day, BUT biased UP

Wed OPENS DOWN again on 39hrs and power index at 350, rising to 450
Another CHOPPY day with upside bias after the open

Thsday opens flat to up but makes a pivot low at 10:30, ON the 13 day cycle
and might continue somewhat weak till 12;30/ 1pm
index 450-350- 350-400

FRIDAY EXPLODES HIGHER at the OPEN, and drops off the rest of the day
600 - 300
opposite of Monday

AS ALWAYS, we can NEVER EVER get it EXACTLY right in advance,
but any similarity to the above is PURE ACCIDENT -
HAHAHA - That got your attention

Spt has 2 important high points & or turns
4th
20th

Low points & or pivots
9th
29th

Merc goes RETRO on 7th effecting 8th & 9th ~~
and DIRECT on 29th - EXPECT huge rebound

Full moon on 4th - often at turns
15th ~ Saturn 180 Uranus -- restrictions conflict with rebellion - Trapped

15-16-17 HARD ASPECTS grouping - should sell off
Rebound to 22nd MONDAY HIGH - 20th = Sun 0 Merc- found at hhighs
AND on 21st ~ Venus 120 pluto - ditto

23rd HUGE Negative HARMONIC CLUSTER -
possible VERY BIG DECLINE ending on 28th and or 29th Teusday turn around

more later
Jay

OBV still weak

Thanks for the great input, yes even jj

The WAVE from the HIGh on the 25th to the 27th looks like abc x abc to a wv iv

the WAVE from the 25th at 10 am to the 28th at 10am looks like 5 waves to a NEW intraday high

the wave DOWN from that high now looks like a -b - c to 1023.13

the recovery wave UP from 1023 to 1028 also looks like an abc.

Ravi
what is that telling us?

and the spx is lower at 2pm, a 126 bar cycle

BAR cycles DO NOT have to be LOD's or lower lows
but they often are.
OBV on the 1 day/ 1 min chart is RISING at 2pm.
ACTIVITY Index is STILL FLAT AT 66

126 bar cycle would now look for 156 bars Monday low at 10am
and Monday also has a 78.6% /13 day cycle LOW at 11;55am
Tuesday 10am to noon rebound HIGh

Remember there is a postive lunar Jupiter aspect at 3;11pm TODAY
and the best part of the bear could be after that.

Jay

OBV weak

Ravi
What was that - today ??
Wve " v " extension ?? higher high on close for spx , and dow
10am LOW was right on TARGET = wv iv

9/3 is now shrouded in mystery
some say HIGH, and some say low

As I pointed out b4, the Morning of 9/2 at 10am is due another HIGh & TURN
39 hrs Aug 17th at 10am

SPT 2nd at 10am and again at 3;30 is the next HIGH & TURN
SPT 8/and or 9th is THEN the NEXT IMPORTANT LOW TURN

Tomorrw propens index so far shows the day as DOWN as does the power index.

$$ NEWS is Supposed to be HARSH- not so good GDP?? maybe the catalyst

Conjecture
IF we get a very strong sell off to the 1000 level or there about,
IT would mean that the 31st & 1st should NOT make new highs
power index for 31st starts out LOW at 300, and jumps to 500 at close
so it should END as an upday, but its too soon to tell how high
Last day and First day syndrome usually are UP days for the month


Thanks again for the great comments
some very good fill in info is being offered here and is very valuable to traders.

Some one talking crash for Spt 1st is NONSENSE

reference last years Spt was NOT good for stocks, but very good for bears
8/28/08 was a HIGh at 11,715
8/29 was off nearly 170 pts to the 11,550 area
9/2 opened higher at 11,800 , then took a dive to 11,516 close
9/9 was lower also
AND
9/17/08 was 1000 pts lower to 10,600 - CAUTION with that one this year

more later
Jay


Jay

Tech SELL SIGNAL

INTERNALS have ISSUED A TECHNICAL SELL SIGNAL

I have a DAILY RECORD of ARMS data that goes back many years

TODAY we are 120 tr days from MARCH 9th

1. 5 day ARMS = 75.4 and has been UNDER 80 for 3days in a row
2. TRIN 5 = 377 and has been UNDER 400 for days in a ROW
3. TRIn 10 - 977 and has been under 1000 for 3 days in a row

THOSE are VERY bearish readings

it could take as little as one day or as much as 10 days to see its effects.

Power index drops lower after today
propens index makes one more stab highr today, but closes lower-
tomrrow's graph is not available until early morning

The JURY is OUT as of this moment as to the DEPTH of tomrrows drop,
the level of which will indicate
either and END of the current rally from 978 to 1038
OR
a continuation into Sptember

Ravi is the MASTER of the MATH, and of course has also posed the same question

more later
Jay

Bears are READY

I was getting paranoid thinking that the bears would not get at least one day, but I am rethinking that position

Tomrrow's read calls for a TURN and it looks LIKE FLASH FUSION'S big turn on the 28th WILL
BE A LOW, and or the first 15 minutes on Monday

We are STILL in a 4th wave from the 1038 high of the 25th, and 26 hours
takes us to either 4pm friday or 9:45 am on Monday

Ravi and I have posted several levels for the SPX which are very possible to achieve between 1016 and 1000
any more than that is a gift from the gods
I got one email claiming they are expecting 980 - Would be BEARY nice, but I am not holding my breadth

Ignore those crash predictions that arrive every year at this time
at least for now
Tech data has NOT issued any sell signals
but YOU will be the first to know when the data does flash a sell
and even then, there could be a 10 day delay from signal to reality

Jay

UPDATE & new thread

Sorry- had too many personal issues to deal with last 2 days

should get back to normal now

___________________________________


Today is performing as expected
LOWER
a short term LOW should hit tomrrow 27th at
10am to 11am
BUT the 28th COULD end lower

10am = 52 hrs lo to lo - Aug17
258 bars at 10am
62%/13 day cycle at 10:43, could truncate to match above

ALL ONE WAVE so far from 978 to 1038 , and it SHOULD CONTINUE to Spt 1st or 2nd
power index shows 31st and 2st ARE UP DAYS

current MATH rounded off
978- 1038 = 60 pts
60X 38.2% = 23 pts
1038 - 23 = SPX 1015 SEE RAVI's numbers - maybe today's close??

Might break below that TOmrrow at 10am to 50% or 30 pts = 1008
NO GUARANTEES
just conjecture based on FIBO math

TODAY so far
Activity index at 100 all morning
Propens index looks for low also tomrrow AM
power index looks for lower close today, and lower on Friday, but might not be lower than today- waiting for propens to catch up with it.

preferred count

PREFERRED COUNT

This is how it looks with third extended, that will require fourth down and one higher hi for fifth.

1 978.51 991.20 12.69
2 991.20 980.74 -10.46
(i) 980.74 999.61 18.87
(ii) 999.61 993.2 -6.41
i of (iii) 993.20 1006.03 12.83
ii of (iii) 1006.03 1003.75 -2.28
iii of (iii) 1003.75 1027.59 23.84
iv of (iii) 1027.59 1021.8 -5.79
v of (iii) 1021.80 1035.82 14.02

(iii) all 993.20 1035.82 42.62
21.4% 1026.70 -9.12

From Ravi at 2;45 lookin good
LOW at 1;30 at 66 bars @ 1024.79
I use 23.6% fibo ratio X 42.62 = 10.06
1035.81- 10.06 = 10.25.76

its now 3;45pm and I got hungry- mkt rally usually follows- anyone else notice
this phenomena ??


Jay

10day - 15 min Chart

High today SO FAR at 1034.95
1035 numerology = 9 = a finishing # for what it worth??

Ravi
Wave count from 978 ?
wave 1 high to 990
wave 2 low to 980
wave 3 high to 1025 ??
wave 4 low to 1022
wave 5 NOW in progress to 1035??

The PROPENS index shows a HIGHER DAY with NO let up , until late in the day
Unless 2pm Astro offers the HOD with moon 120 Mars

Its now 11am and NO BACK OFF
Activity index is flat at 100 and has been there all day so far from wee hours in the am

10;30 was 30bar minor low
11am now holding just under 1035 earlier highs
the next 9 level = 1044 f or what its worth
MMath levels = 1002, 1033, then 1041

Next 60 bar cycle @ 1pm
90b@ 3;30

Flash uses 4.3 hour cycle & 8.6, but in between is 6.5 which = 39 hours
39 hours from the 978 low on the 17th @ 9:45am = tomrrow at 9:45am
which Ive mentioned often

Jay

update

Ravi
Your Math and Elliott are incredible - MUCH to absorb

Send me a one paragraph SUMMARY by email and I will post it for a new thread

Hadik's latest report indicates TODAY is possible at 9700 dow = SPX @ 1050
He calls 9700 a magical high & Aug 21 /24th a high progression
However, He also indicates SPT 4th as another potential high

IMO, it should come after a setback this week after the Monday high
I had posted MONDAY as a day that SOARS, but needs to set back some first
Propens index DOES show a HIGHER day today.
AFTER TODAY"S high - IMO,
As I PREVIOUSLY mentioned - Aug 25th to 27th & 28th has potential to
SELL off more dramatically than we have seen for a while -

VENUS trine URANUS & Sun trine Pluto on SUNDAY
are pushing Monday higher in the afterglow

LAST year we had a SEPTEMBER Crash, right after the END OF AUGust.
the ACTUAL crash took place from Oct 1 to 10 - dow lost 2400 pts on close

It is QUITE logical from a LOW to HIGH perspective to expect
OCT10th to provide the REVERSE-- A PIVOT high from which a similar loss can occur

However FOR This AM, we are seeing the futures pushing higher at the open
power index agrees with propens for a higher day today
BUT
there is a 38%/13 day cycle at 10:12 and moon 90 Venus at 11am
which could pull price levels lower b4 running to a higher close
at or near dow 9700, depending on HOW low the above cycle gets;
We have seen MANY times, a rebound, off a lower open, thus matching
a previous high & dont forget, they still have the 39hours cycle to TOP again TOMRROW
morning at 9:45

Summary
AS I previously mentioned:
BY Monday's open they would be CHOMPING at the bit to BUY
and the futures are reflecting as the open is just shy of 1030 as Ravi indicated also

Ideally, I would like to see an abrieviated high this morning at 9:45
low at 11am & rebound into the close.
open higher tomrrow, then DECLINE THRU the OPEN on the 27th,
AFTER bouncing around & making the 28th a SHORT TERM buy at close.

1014 spx as per one of Ravi's comments could offer the LOD at 11am today
but dont count on it.

more later
Jay

UPDATE

Looks LIKE OBV PEAKED at 1:30pm
little 5th wave from 3pm- LESSER volume
and price should follow suit on Monday

Took a short position at 3;55pm, and will plan to sell it at 11am tomrrow,
given a 25 pt spx back off = 200 dow pts - just CONJECTURE,
but a set back to just above 1000,
or just below yesterdays close at 1007 would work well also.

At which time, IF at 11am, I will close that position and go long

HEY PG
does that satisfy your short term trading and posting my trades??
Lets WORK together and maybe ALL of us can benefit

Jay

UPDATE

Read Ravi comments to UPDATE FAST PACED DAY

_______________________________________________

Activity is at 300
GOLD is UP $13
1013 - 1018 high target??
propens rises and falls later
power index slips lower during the day

After Higher OPEN - per Coy & Ravi, they should sell off to low 990's by 2 to 3 pm as per bars and Coy

204b at 10am
228b @ noon
258b @ 2;30
could extend to 270 bars at 3;30

The read calls for Fast paced changes
Day should close off the lows
wkend has strong pos trines
STILL LOOKING FOR MONDAY TO SOAR
39 hours from Aug17 at 9:45 = 9:45 on the 25th. = low to high
astro matches
25th calls for CHANGE to NEGATIVe
26th follow thru lower
27th LOW at 10:43 am & TURN
FITS well with FLASH's 28th date for another BIG run to a new 2009 high on Spt 4th FULL MOON.


Ravi
spx to 1050-1060 - VERY LIKELY
for MONDAY

WHERE is the BEAR ??

Obviously the BEAR is NOT here TODAY
I had to ask myself why
Astro had the answer - contacts with Neptune are often bullish- Why? you ask
ITS because Neptune is the planet of ILLUSION - its icy blue dreamy state of being.

heres a reading from the aspect.
logical analysis is misguided- confusion confounds fact & truth
_______________________________________

Ok, that was then
WHATS NEXT ?

THE BEAR should bounce from his CAVE tomrrow AM
at the open & MAKE a low @ 204bars at 10am

The aspect of importance is Mercury is 180 Uranus at 7:47 am
it translates as : poor focus- irrationality- disruptions-
moon # Uranus at 10;30am = restless impatience

the day also reads ::: ADAPT TO FAST PACED CHANGES

In conjunction with the above, the PROPENSITY index confirms
a LOWER start, and much higher close
todays close was only at 2992, opens tomorrow at 2987, then closes the day at 2998

Summary
I CAN NO LONGER project a DOWN DAY TOMRROW, except as already noted.
______________________________________________________

the WEEKEND has 2 very positive trines (120),
and the read for the day as previously posted says: today SOARS

the LOW of the 17th at 9:45 am + 26 hrs = Tuesday AM at 9:45
I am making that as a LOW to HIGH

Hey -PG dont leave us NOW, we value your comments

more later
Jay

UPDATE

Ibo's chart and CIY dates are in agreement with me

11;16 this morning " SHOULD " provide a turn -- moon 120 pluto
theres no other support left after that
Day closes on Merc 150 Neptune = confusion
Power index shows drop today, not yet started
propens index decline has NOT been seen yet--appears DELAYED ??
Activity index is NOW at 133, and has DROPPED from 300 prior to open.

It would seem all is in place for a CHANGE in trend as per Ibo's chart as well
TODAY and 11;16 seems most likely for that CIT

Yes Ravi I can see most likely 960 at or on Friday's CLOSE
But I cant see 40 pts lost just tomrrow alone

On ibo's chart we can see
1018 high then an a-b-c to 980 low = wave "A"
NOW IN WAVE "B: retracement to 1006
Next would be wave "C" which would also break down into 3 waves a-b-c
as ASTRO has described previously

That means TODAY drops to a LOW on FRIDAY - 960 or as low as 940 = 'a'
Monday as described gets a SUPER booster = 'b'
25th to26th and possibly the open for 27th = wave "c"
end of correction pattern and we then see a run up back to 1000 by Spt 3rd or 4th

IMO, the correction we started on Aug 7th at 1018 WILL NOT END until LATE Spt
23rd to 25th, but I will get more precise on that later.

Coy
that cycle convergence at 2pm might also be the acceleration of a TURN LOWER ??

Today ends with CONFUSION
AND
friday's astro starts with a SEVERE SURPRISE

more later
Jay

TYX

COY

TYX in BIG TROUBLE

TOMRROW SHOULD BE THE BIG DOWN DAY

Jay

UPDATE

I am attempting to put the pieces of the WAVE puzzle in place,
so we can ALL get a handle on WHATS NEXT

As of 1:30 as COY posted we are NOW getting what MIGHT be the 5th wave of "C" = X ??


IF so, then the NEXT BIGGER move has GOT TO BE DOWN
DOWN TO WHERE ?? you ask. GOOD question

I posted some possible levels, but I personally cant see such a
drop in the next 6.5 hours to 2pm tomrrow, or to friday AM open , to such lows

1018 to 980 = 38 pts = possible wave "a"
right now at 1;30 might be wave "b"
which means wave "c" dead ahead

38 x 1.618 = 68 - spx 999.61 got tagged a few minutes ago = spx target of 931
NOT out of the question, but WHEN is the next question, of course
38X 2.618 = 99 - 999 - 99 = 899 , we might be asking too much [gg]

However, Aug 20th AND part of 21st might HOLD the key to the above lows

I know what I wrote on the previous comments
Tomrrow is an 8 day LOW
Friday is an 8 day TURN

Tomrrow new moon is EARLY at 6am, and the after effect could be DOWN
there are 2 astro events that are strongly negative
both are MERCURY aspects - which effects OUR THINKING
Merc 150 Neptune = CONFUSION at 5pm tomrrow
merc 180 Uranus = SEVERE news @ 8 am friday - which is why Im expecting a LOWER OPEN

NOW, heres more
Monday has potential to be a HUGE rally, but from HOW LOW ??
THEN -AUG 25th & 26th are slated to SELL OFF into an OPENING low on the 27th at 10;30

I have to say that the MAIN TREND IS NOW DOWN TILL Late SPT
Spt 18th to 25th is the NEXT ASTRO highlighted time zone for trouble
but AFTER the 25th - it QUICKLY leads to a resolution and HUGE rally to Oct10th - yes OCT10th

___________________________________
THANKS for your great comments
evryone is offering good thoughts and concepts

Ravi
IT LOOKS LIKE 1;15pm made the hourly TOP in 5 waves from 11;00am where a pivot
began at 60bars and the Jupiter Saturn 150 mark

LET US KNOW WHEN WE GET the FIRST 5 wve decline off that high mark
____________________________________________

more later
Jay

BOLLINGER bands

Bollinger bands appear to be coming to a PINCH at 4pm

SPX 991.20 - like the mama bear - JUST RIGHT

NEXT 2 days should PROVE the wave count

it would seem we got wave 1 or 'a' from 1018 to 980 in 6 days --aha 39 hours

Next DOWN LEG would be 13 hours to the 20 th at 2;15pm or the last hour @ 3;30
20th converges 26hrs from the 14th & 65 hours from the the 6th @2:15pm
& 180 bars hits at 3;30

the BAR cycle is right on schedule as there was a minor dip on 258bars @ 1;30pm today
the NEXT important BAR cycle is at 4pm, AND OR OPEN
IF today does NOT tank at the close IT WILL DO SO AT OPEN - tomrrow,
especially given the Mars 90 Uranus tonight

ALSO
the 20th is an 8 day LOW
which makes the 21st an 8day TURN

Using a variation of my 13 day cycle = Aug 7th at 1;15pm + 84.5 hours =Aug26th

Note about the 26th
Merc 90 PLUTO @ noon
Mars 180 Pluto @ 4;30
strong Plutonian energy = DISRUPTIONS - Uncertainty- domination- rash actions


SUMMARY
wave 1 from 1018 to 980 ~~ Aug 7th to Aug 17th
Wave 2 from 10:00am on the 17th to what now looks like 3:55pm today -
wave 3 DOWN should = 2 days from 4pm today till 2pm on the 20th AND or 21st at open
13 hours

how low is low ?
Hey -- you CAN do the math as well as I do
Wave 4 from Early friday to Monday at 4pm = 13 hrs

MY thought is 38 X 1.618 = 62pts
OR
38X 2.618 = 100 pts

350 spx pts gained from march 6th low
X 38.2% = 135 pts
38 pts = wave 1
leaves us with a potential loss of 100 pts in 2 days

Monday's read says THE DAY SOARS
so get ready to buy the lower open on Friday

Tuesday the 25th says a CHANGE IN ENERGY and it gets negative again
27th calls for a TURNING POINT and a 62% /13day cycle at 10;43am



more later
Jay

update

START new thread

ts 9am
activity index is at 66
Flux is FLAT LINE

propens index shows potential for some upside but short lived
and lower by days end , possibly lower tomrrow AM.

Sam, selling some positions at 2pm seem like a good plan for today

My original outlook for today was a low at 4pm,
that still might work out as well as open tomrrow

Futures have backed off higher levels earlier this am

Media says that WALL ST liked Mondays sell off and referred to the mkt as having tanked,
but I get The impression, they THINK its just a temporary dip,
and are expecting higher levels quickly

my conjecture?
A contrarian would say that As long as the gen public thinks that way, its still safe to be short- hmmm

more later
Jay

AUG 17th to 26th

"B" wave HAS BEGUN as previously posted a few times

Jay

UPDATE

Check out the OBV on the chart above

10day- 15 mn chart

Friday's low was at 90bars @ 11;30

Monday
150 bars @ 10am
180bars @ 12;30
204bars @ 2;30

Tuesday
228b@ 10am
258b @ 1:30
30b@ 4pm-- A LOW POINT

Expect Wed to OPEN strong, BUT AVOID the temptation to spend

more later
Jay

TODAY's CHART

5 day- 5min chart
power index & propens appear to go higher after a lower open
but power index drops after mid day
propens no complete yet for tomrrow


OBV lacking against the higher price levels

Ravi
The decline looks like 5waves in a CHANNEL
but the rally looks ragged like an a-b-c x a-b- (( c still finishing))

Coy- TYX tracked equities until last hour
TYX dropped but stocks rebounded after 3:30

from an Astro site - POWERFUL CHANGES Aug 15th to 23rd

2pm LOW on 6th + 6 days x 6.5 hrs = 39 hours to Aug14th at 2pm
low to high

1;15 pm low on 11th + 13 hrs got today high at 1012.74 @ 1;10pm

Aug 6th to Aug 26th = 91 hrs = 14 days
39 hrs to Aug 14th as above + 52 hrs to Aug 26 @ 2pm

Aug 20th = 65 hrs from Aug 6th @ 2pm (( 39 + 26 ))
Aug 20 = 26 hrs from 14th at 2pm

When it hits, there will be regrets on Monday Aug17th
Aug 18th & 19th, 2008 dow was off 311 pts
Aug 13 to 16 , 2007 dow fell 724 pts intraday low at 1pm on 16th.

more later
Jay






Jay

COMPARE to 1930 ??

IMO, the reason this chart has VALUE RIGHT NOW
is because 120 tr days from MARCH 6th takes us to August26th

I have proposed the following wave b4 and here it is again

correction phase as of Aug7th high at 1018 at 1;15pm
got to 992.76 at 1;15 on the 11th
rebounded to 1012.78 at 3pm on the 12th
Futures this AM were up to 1012 again, but have dropped off after 8:30
but still holding at 1009 & Activity index holding at 166

IMO, We are in wave 1 & 2 of CORRECTIVE wave "a"
wave 3 of "a" should start tomrrow or Monday at the latest and end on the 20th
astro for tomrrow hits the high notes at 2pm, and the high energy should wane right after
WAVE 4 of "a" hits for a rally on the 21st and most especially the 24th
THE ENERGY changes dramatically on the 25th and makes the 120 day low on the 26th
for the low of a corrective wave.

more later
Jay

Current graph

A solid drop UNDER 990 is very negative
and very imminent

ARAK might have his way today with a HOLD till 2;15pm

however, we have
78.6% of 13day at noon LOW

180bars at 10:30
204bars @ 12;30
228bars at 2;30

Thsday
252 bars at 10am
or 258 bars at 10;30
Im expecting a Strong rally Thsday,
It might be delayed until after the open, but dont bet on it.

Today has a fibo convergence 55-11-81 tr dys

PROPENS index seem to confirm what ARAK posted, UP most of the day till fed hour

more later
Jay

WHERE ARE WE NOW ?

FROM spx 1018 high at 1;15pm on Friday
IT looks to me
WV 1 low to Monday open at 1005 followed quickly by wave 2 high at 1009
then wave i @ 1001 & ii @1006 of Wave 3 NOW in progress @ 995 near 11am
EXPECTING wave v of 3 to make a low on Friday at 10 to 10;30am
This could actually make the LOW of WAVE {1}
Wv {2} happens quickly late Friday
Monday then starts WAVE 3 of 3, and it ends on the 20th
wave 4 high on 24th which sets up the 5thwave next to the 26th LOW
that is the Possible Elliott wave layout for the "B"wave

HOW low is low will be determined by the low of wave 1 multiplied by a fibo factor
which could be TYPICALLY 1.618 or 2.618 multiple

Jay

TOP of the "A" WAVE

It would appear to some of us that we are getting near the top of the "A" wave
but we have written that several times in the last couple months
what makes it so different this time?

Today we are at 110 tr days from March 6th and tomrrow 110 days from March 9th
the 19th is 28 tr days from July7th low & 81 tr days from April 20 low
& next week an astro grouping that has very negative notations

As indicated by the BAR cycle, the day TODAY starts off DOWN till 10am
sorry Coy, that one was upside down

Whats Next
A low close on the 12th
A strong OPEN on the 13th and HOD at about 2pm
Friday = a lower open ,but higher close

BEARS take NOTE
there are very few times that it will be beneficial to be short
NEXT week is one of those times
WE may NOW be getting into the ILLUSIVE "B" wave
Readings for next week
17th= Confusion & impaired judgment
18th = Tension - recklessness- explosive actions- caution in travel
19th = restrictions- caution with $-
20th = cloudy vision - upsets - sever surprises

The WAVE now unfolding should look like
Low on 12th
high on 14th
low on 19th-20th
high on24th
low on 26th

more later
Jay

WHATS NEXT ?

thanks for posting some REALLY good info
Ravi, PK, And some new names- Don Harold, & Don D
UK trader - good Astro updates

Ravi - we should conference - send me an email

Spx hit 1018 which is exactly a 1/2 murry math cycle from 1002 to 1032

My volume and A/D internal technical numbers have been dropping all last week,
and should show up in lower price levels next week

PLEASE do NOT ASK ME HOW LOW -
I will not allow you to set me up for a reprimand
because you told us the mkt would be at $ on a date, and it didnt happen that way
I get enuf of that at home[gg]

As previously posted --Aug 10th shows best chance for SELL OFF to start
Power index & Propens index BOTH AGREE on a decline
And it looks like a LOW Friday Am & this should lead to a higher close on the 14th,
but it should be a lot lower than Aug7th.

UK is right about the 14th Sun 180 Jupiter and it has a POSITIVE effect

Heres my outlook this week
Mon & tues lower
Wed = flat & expect a snails pace day
Ths = higher till about 2pm, then lower at close
Fri = lower open, then higher at close

Jay

crash possible 17 to 21st

shorts get ready

shorts get ready

New Chart

LOOKS TO me like 5th has come and GONE
26 hour cycle took us to 3pm on 30th

Next 26 hr cycle is Aug5th at 3pm

If 1002 is deemed the HIGH of the March 9th rally trend,
and Aug 7th is to be a high at that level, then the rally has to come from much lower

Positive SENTIMENT was SO THICK friday - ITS GOT to be taken DOWn to NEGATIVE

Aug5th is teh NEXT best bet for a low in the spx 950 to 925 area
IF SUCH A LOW IS ACTUALLY COMING

NOW you skeptics and amateurs remember this is ONLY a
FIBO level THAT the mkt should seek IF a sell off is coming within this time frame

Now, is that how you want me to frame my projectsion
NOTHING IS CUT IN STONE< and just because I throw it out there, doesnt make it so

Jay
ps;
Thanks Sam
I'll post if I can

TIDES

FYI

Jay

FIZZLE

Freds thinking 1008

BUT he doesnt have my road map
__________________________________
IT Started earlier, but at 6pm we HAVE
Merc # Jupiter == Excessive ideas fizzle

At 4am tomrrow we have Merc 180 Nptune
== BIG IDEAS DIE & Fizzle

Geez, I cant imagine why the mkt lost 50% of its earlier gains
__________________________________________
TOMRROW, Ive posted several times and wont repeat it again
multiple FIBO CYCLE CONVERGENCE
8 day cycle convergence
Multiple hard aspects
Midnite Low tide on Saturday
________________________________
I will be BUYING the CLOSE

more later
Jay

NO Support

Sorry CNBC- Last hour not the same as earlier this week

OBV tanking

MACD tanking

Ult Osc = ditto

Activity index tanked about 2pm, and is now at 100 for about 30 minutes

It would appear that wave v was at the 11am HOURLY high & turn

Jay

TODAY's CHART

How long will this UPLEG take

982 to 969 = wve iv as Ravi has shown us

wv v should NOT be much more than 982, and only needs a thrust this AM

more later
Jay

UPDATE

New thread for today

a close under 970 today should lead to the big sell off tomrrow, and finishing friday low at close

Todays read:
NO shopping
No $ Planning
keep secrets
dont listen to the crowd
bide your time
_____________
Thsday
difficult encounters
poor communications
arguments over $$
_________________

Friday
unstable communications
intense power conflicts
__________

Monday - Aug 3
BIG BIZ GETS the GREEN LIGHT

Friday Aug 7th
Fortune Smiles

Monday Aug 10 starts a little setback, but theres still more bull till the 17th

Jay

WHATS NEXT ?

Elliott wave stand ASIDE

the SKY is falling and so is the MKT

PROPENS index drops from 3005 to 2997 into tomorrow AM so far

and the SPX futures are already at 973

gold & Oil also taking it on the chin at 8:30am

Look for an initial LOW tomrrow between 10 & 11am,
which MIGHT flow over to the end of the day, but I dont
have a confirmation of that yet.

Flash has TOO Many change dates- NOW 7/30 & 7/31 NO help
but it is consistent with my proposed trading schedule for this week


more later
Jay

update

The problem is that if we include after market iii is smaller than both i and v; which invalidates the count as an 5 wave impulse. That means that we were still working on iii of (v)that started at 972.18.

So, there may be a bit left on the (v) of A to work on early Monday with a target of 987 to 993 where v of (v) = 1.382 to 1.618 of i of (v).

The bigger question is how shallow or deep the B retrace would be. There is potential support at the old 956 top of June 11, which may even prevent a 38.2% retrace.

Only a break of 965.95 will confirm that B is in progress.

Ravi
_____________________________________________________


Ravi,
I'M LOOKING FORWARD at August 10th for possible wave 5 of "A"

IF so then, we can have a more extended decline into LATE SPT for the REAL wave"B'

Oct 10th then looks most prominent for the FINAL wave "C" - 2 top

This is the PICTURE I am getting from the ROAD MAP provided by NATURAL ENERGY

FROM Oct10th we get another MORE EXTENDED DECLINE to APRIL 2010

_______________________________________________________

THE ABOVE commentary means
IMO<> wv iii of "A"
and next week should = wave iv of "A"
thus the forecast as above

Thanks for the great comments - very constructive - and informative

more later
Jay

More Serious CHART

NOTICE THE PINCH on the BOLLINGER bands just like GOLD a couple weeks ago
when it took an $18 dive the next day

MACD and Ult confirm roll over as does OBV on a 1day/1 min chart

Jay

Elvis has LEFT the ???

Just to let you all know that ELVIS is alive an well
so is Marylin and I have the memory of her back side to think about
Elvis made sure my wife's hands were busy in front holding the mic
hahahaha

Hope everyone has a good laugh- that pic cost me $5

______________________________________________

As for the MKT, I dont think I promised or inferred today would crash-
I did , however, expect it to start out lower at 11am, but that never hit
And I had mentioned somewhere to expect 3pm to be higher

NOW that its over, the FUTURES ARE lower for the open as of 7pm tonight.

THe PROPENSITY has several parts, and 3of them are ahead
by 2 days and each one of those parts has collapsed for tomrrow

Power index drops off from 500 to 400, but the mkt can do a lot more

I will update all in the AM

OEX pc ratio = .67, and I havent seen it that low since late June
CBOE pc ratio also on a sell @ .87
Spider also @ 1.29

GOLD IS about to take a hit
gld pc ratios have been low all week except for the 22nd
15-28-75-14

Numerology number 9 is an ending number
dow hit 9096.72 & could not break about 9100 = 1 a new start
so it failed at that level and so will the mkt tomrrow show its true direction for the next 5 days

SOME OF YOU GET TOOO EMOTIONAL, simply because yuove been HOLDING ONTO
your DESIRE for the mkt to respond to your puts, and as each dasy goes higher, your value
drops to ???

You should be SCALE trading and ADDING MORE as each level is achieved
THRE IS NO WAY YOU CAN ALWAYS EXPECT TO CATCH THE TOP OR BOTTOM
And YOU MUST prepare for that- mentally as as with your cash reserves
THIS IS TRUE OF BOTTOMS AS WELL

ON JULY6th, I wrote to expect the mkt to run to 950 by or near JULY22nd
Just because you didnt believe me then, dont FOLLOW THE CROWD NOW
We bears ARE clearly NOW in the MINORITy - ALA pc ratios

I wrote several times this week for the 23rd
DONT BELIEVE what you hear - for eg atilla , sorry guy
dont get SUCKED in for example Exhuberance from CNBC - jerks
dont follow the CROWD -- some one on TV who says we are now going right to spx 1000

EVERYTIME I GET one of those readings at either a top or even at a bottom,
IT mean a change is at hand

AND THAT MEANS RIGHT NOW

more later
Jay

UPDATE

Looks like the drop to 943.22 on Tuesday completed the shallowest of (iv); and we have been doing a diagonal 5th since then having completed or close to have completed the fourth within that. (The idea of of fourth wave triangle, with 970ish target,, died one we made higher hi today)

This would imply that we go up to 11, NOT DOWN, tomorrow AM to 960-962 area to complete the upmove from 869. This is more in line with your earlier timing work of a top tomorrow 11ish , if I recollect it right.
.

That would be 91-93 points up. Fibo will then be 35, 45, 55 points down to 927, 917, 907 area. I do not see 970.

My gut says we may not get below 927. Let us see.

Ravi
________________________________________________________

from Jaywiz
Propensity index shows a MAJOR DROP either late today or ALL day tomorrow
spx 960 might be on the table, but it matters NOT as the NEXT BIG move is DOWN

Closing out longs today would be a very good idea ,IMO

WELL now, Just got a confirmation from some SHMUCK on Wall street at 9:25 claiming the
SPX is NOW GOING TO 1000 -- HMMMFF

As previously posted SEVERAL times
TURN happens on the 23rd
2+3 = 5 = numerology = CHANGE

I will ADD more shorts today on ANY RALLY to 9:45 this AM
and will PLAN to SELL on or b4 Friday at 4pm

MONDAY as previously reported
Leisurely day & Sublime - probably biased UP
Tuesday is going to be the MOST IMPORTANT day of August and should be the BULK of the LOSS
WEd is the 13 day cycle low at 10;30 which might be the PIVOT low, but could languish all day at the lows
RALLY on 30th to Augst 7th -10th

As of today, 11am is still to be considered for a low
150bars & Merc 135 uranaus
180bars at 1:30 could also offer a pivot low
HOD looks posssible at 3pm with hourly & moon 180 Jupiter


more later
Jay

SPX to 970

You can plainly see the SPX wants to TOUCH the UPPER LINE at 970

This is the same 25 day chart I posted a couple weeks ago, and projected spx 950 at that time
eveyone groaned that day [g], but HERE we are just 10 days later

ITS NOW 113days from the FEB 6th high to high
110 days to 115 days Maxes out
115 tr days = the 23rd

more later
Jay

UPDATES

Ravi said...Hi Eveyone:

I am bacck in the USA and the similar time zone as others here.

Looks like we completed Wave (iii) (up from 869 low) at July 16th hi of 943.96 and done a, b of extended correction for wave (iv) in two days. Today should be c of (iv), with a target in 927.45 to 934.31 area, the area of the prior lesser degree iv.

Say we end (iv) at 930; then (v) = 1.618 of (i) will target 960 area as the end of A and beginning of B for a deeper correction.

Can we do all that by 23rd to fit into Jay's time consideration? Certainly looks plausible if we sell of about 20 points today and then a do 30 points in a 5 wave up for the next two days.
___________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________
Jaywiz wrote:

MY work seems to be looking at mid day on the 23rd for the HIGH & TURN

the reading for the 23rd=
DONT FOLLOW THE CROWD
Look for SUDDEN changes
safeguard your possessions

the BULK of the decline appears next week thru the AM of the 29th

960 to 970 should stop the advance if we get back to 940 area today which was last Ths/fri closes
I think 935 might be more than I can expect

Today's PROPENS shows
down -- up - down close

notice that Chankya's chart coincidentally also shows the 23rd as the TURN date

and AS I mentioned several times 2+3 =5 = change
Jay

Great Chart

OK, heres Chanakay's chart again
SHOWS A HIGH on the 23rd as does ASTRO & the power index below
IT looks EXCELLENT so far

JULY astro points to weakness from the 22nd to the 28th

How high is high and how low is low??
Arak, it matters NOT when you know what time it is on the market clock
And my initial projection to 950 is looking better and should make it above
the previous "A"A wave high at 956 intraday , or 946 on close

We can ALL do the MATH for potential FIBO levels

We are right NOW NEARING the PRECIPICE for the decline for JULY
but NOT yet - it NEEDS TO GO HIGHER STILL

The Astro reading - Monday should OPEN with a RALLY to START
the propens index shows this also, but its NOT complete yet,
so I will UPDATE Monday AM


THE POWER index advance view
7/20 -Monday = 400 ~~ 300 ~~450~~400@eod
7/21 -Tuesday = 350 ~~400- 500~~ 400 @ eod
7/22- WEd = 425 ~~ 525 ~~425 @eod
7/23- Ths = 500~~400@eod
____________________________________________-
MONDAY
The above indicates TO ME an UP open, with a setback and Hgher close, but off the 3pm high

Tuesday
Starts DOWN , rallies, but ends lower

WEd
UP ALL DAY, but might close lower, unless Thsday open lower

Ths
Higher open- lower close

more later
Jay

update

WHATS NEXT ?

we got a HIGH on JUNE11th at 956 and a LOW on Jluy8th at 870
OR
should we count it from JULY1st at 930 to 870 on july8th
???????
In other words we REALLY should be looking NOW for the rebound HIGH
Lets count an a-b-c rebound wave 1 or wave "A" from Jun11 to July 8th as complete
and you know how I feel about doing that too soon, but it does look probable
____________________________________-
86 spx pts were lost
86 x 38.2% = 33
870+33 = 903 OR 880 + 33 = 913
So we get a range of 903 to 913
And YOU can do the rest of the math
50%
61.8%
78.6% = most likely = 68 pts + 870= spx 938- 948
NOW thats fascinating because it was 68 pts we used to try to get to 820
and it was 68 pts lost from 956 to 889 on the June 11 to June 23 decline

950 is at the TOP of the formation of the crossed lines on the
20 day spx CHART I posted at the blog several times

THIS IS NOT a guarantee or MY projection at all
_________________________

Timing for such an event as the "B" or "X" wave just prior to
a very steep sell off thru August and SPT
8/18 is is a half 55 tr day cycle <28days> from july8 = 80 tr days from Arpil 20
9/24 is the complete 55 tr day cycle from the same or 110 from Apr 20
_______________________________________--

Back to the X wave
timing should be 112 to 115 tr days from FEB 6th HIGH TO HIGH
counting days = July 20 to 23rd
Remember I mentioned the 23rd of the month USUALLY represents a CHANGE
Why? because 2+3 = 5 and in numerology 5 = CHANGE
BUT ITS ALSO 115 tr days from FEB 6th HIGH TO HIGH

And this time the full moon Eclipse of July7th came in around a LOW
then the SOLAR eclipse of JULY 21st should offer a HIGH
And the daily readings SUPPORT that view.
_______________________

VERY SIMPLE Elliott = KISS

March 6th to June 11th = WAVE "A"
June 11 to July10th = WAVE "B"
July 10th to July 23rd = wave "C" , maybe
&
Consider this the end of WAVE 2 maybe
NOw begins the dreaded wave 3, maybe
because as I've said many times, most Elliotticians tend to END waves TOOO soon.

and I do have some evidence that this wave will NOT END UNTIL ???
yup, you guesses it - OCT10th 2009
2 X 250 tr days spread high to high = 500 tr days

more later
Jay

IMO< The chart shows a LIMITED rally in the making

IF it starts at 3pm, it should finish Monday by 11am to 1pm

Jay

RIGHT ON THE 880 LINE

Looks LIKE they HELD the 880 LINE and would NOW target 950 by July20-22

Sam
IF we get any lower open, which I doubt, I will ADD MORE CALLS

the ONLY thing that could DRAG it lower at 10:30 would be the 13 day cycle completion 100%
BUT look back at Nov 21st,
which OPENED higher and fell back into 11:05am
which was ALSO a 13 day cycle completion & closed UP 495 dow pts.

I bot some calls at close and sold all my puts
I WILL ADD MORE CALLS if they sell BACK -- AFTER a higher open
tomrrow
____________________________________
ALSO the ACTIVITY INDEX in the last 2 hours MOVED higher above 300-
______________________________________________

NOTE~~ JULY 8th at 2:30 spx at 869.70 MATCHED a TIME value of
55 tr days from APRIL 20th LOW

AND today @ 11;10 am was a TIME match of 55 tr days April 21st at 10:45am

IF it wasn't for the other cycles as I mentioned several times for 4pm today
I SHOULD have been out on the 8th

NOW< heres a LESSON we ALL NEED TO LEARN
Next time we get OUT on a day like the 8th as above and
WAIT OUT THE CLOSE of the 9th to BUY CALLS

MANY of us did gt out on the 7th, but we got back in toooo early
NOTE ~~ WE DONT NEED TO TRADER EVERY DAY

Sometimes its best to WAIT for a BETTER trade,
such as getting long at today's close

More Later
Jay

TODAY's CHART

NOTICE a couple things

Tomrrows OPEN rally my have ALREADY occurred

AN A"B "C rebound is quite clear OFF the 2:30 LOD
which looks like 5 wves DOWn from the 10:15 HOD

OBV is LACKING on the last hour rally - compare it to the high at 1;20
it STAYED FLAT

MACD rolled over

ULT OSC heading lower right at the close

this configuration has led to a LOWER OPEN may times
_______________________________

Suppose 329 bars as a cycle completion low at noon today
It leads to 126bars at 4pm Tomrrow
OR
using 108bars today, we still get to 204 bars at close tomrrow
IN addition, since 126bars was DUE at 4pm, they
OFTEN OPEn on the BAR CYCLE LOW which means a
SMASH DOWN OPEN

the chart confirms that premise

They got spx 869.32 at the low today in the second set of 5 waves at 2;30pm
930-870=60pts

67 pts matches the 956-890 wave 1 or A
wave B got back to 930
930 - 67 = 862 which has been mentioned many times
HOWEVER,
67 x 1.618 = 108pts
930-108 = 822

I know it hard to imagine all that in one day, but????????
NOT unreal as it would be 460 dow points & 58 spx pts

Lets hope for the best so we can also BUY the close
It would appear right now that whatever is lost tomrrow
will be quickly regained on Friday

Jay

Chart

THE H&S is broken thus it looks like dow 7500 is dead ahead

and JULY9th is THE BEST timing for such an event

This will also allow for a recovery into JULy20th- NOT 22nd

BY the 22nd they START a declining mode again to the 28th.

Jay

Chart

SOMETIMES its JUST that SIMPLE

Jay

Ibo's CHART

This chart shows is more clearly as I described it on the previous post

ONCe we get to the high of this current leg,
MID DAY TOMRROW

the LOWS are dead ahead

Jay

WAVES

Today looks like we are in the process of a sideways move OFF the low of noon ,
as the LOW of NOOn TODAY @ 8215 did NOT supercede
the LOW of yesterday at 10:45am at 8210 dow & spx 886.68

that leads me to suspect we are in a 2nd wave and or "B" wave where they should recover late today
and should open higher as we have already had THREE down opens in a row

ONCe they get back to spx 898 or near it, we can consider the "B" wave a
FLAT which IS VERY BEARISH, and the next move is the "C" wave to a
low on the close of the 8th at 126bars
to be matched by a secondary
low on the 9th at 204bars, plus the other cycles

Heres something to think about
If we split the 19.5 hours in half, we get 9 + 3/4 hrs thru mid day tomrrow
take us to about 1pm tomrrow on the 8th for the mid point
that might be the NEXT SHORTING OPP

Then the last 9+3/4 hrs take us right to the close of the 9th

Right now is a declining activty index now at 133, down from 233
NOT devastating, but we'll see what it does later

SOOOO, How do we play this NOW??
I am thinking about SHORTING any rally tomrrow by 1pm
And holding it thru the close of the 9th.
BUT
I ALSO want to get ready to buy long the close on THsday- & heres WHY
POWEr index jumps from 300 at close on the 9th
TO 500 on the 10th

Jay

NOTHING has CHANGED

Despite SNIPPY remarks from certain so called friends on twitter

NOTHING HAS CHANGED THIS WEEK

WAVE "C" is NOW in progress

SPX 956- 886 = 70
70 x 1618 = 113

SPX 931- 70 = 861
SPX 931-110= 820

WAVE 1 UNFOLDED today at the LOW at 10:45 right on the MARS 90 Neptune

WAVE 2 might have finished at 4pm

They have a VERY LIMITED time to get to the objective above
LOW is STILL UNCHANGED at 4pm on the 9th

Remember I HAD mentioned 26 hrs at 4pm TODAY
NOW we only have19.5 hrs to go

How will it break down?
I know - lets ask FLASH

Hey FLAsh, let us in to SIMON
WHATS NEXT ?? , please

thanks
Jay

Summer 2009 PROJECTIONS

FROM TIME & CYCLES , which you can access right from this blog

this is my FIRST look at it, and you can see how closely Chanakya matches my projections

Just as I posted, a 3pm to 3:30 rebound, of sorts, nothing to write home about

And can you believe it an extra 15 minutes today???

Ive mentioned the 40 point rule of thumb several times
from 666 + 280 = 946 which was the closing high on June12th
946 - 40 = [906] - 40 = [866] - 40 = [826] - 40 = [786]

WE have SEEN these numbers contrived my other methods
but this one is really very simple

Since 906 has been breached, we now look for 866
and so forth if also breached at each level

Jay

Fred's Chart

Have we turned the corner ??
Jay

WAVE 2 still in progess

Some of YOU have SHORT term memory loss,
no money is lost unless you close out the position

THE CHART above was POSTED a few days ago and its STILL THE SAME OLD SAME OLD
BUT NOT FOR VERY MUCH LONGER

ONCE wave 2 ends, we will KNOW it for sure as Spx 912.79 will be smashed convincingly

We have posted the target prices several times

the DOW according to Woodson , and please no derogatory comments about him- i dont care
Im just using HIS math

DOW 8877 on JUNE11th to 8259on June 24th was 618pts fibo
THAT as we have posted several times was WAVE 1

WHEN Wave 2's are elongated, IT means wave 4 will NOT BE
From 8259 we have reached a high of 8575 - a perfect 50% retracement of 310 pts
And they are BANGING upon that line in the SAND RIGHT NOW at NOON
thus matching the SPX 930 high ALSO at the same time

SOOOO
Whats NEXT ??
Today has been pegged by E ZONE as a critical day - not sure what that means-
but it looks like [[IMO a]]] HUGE TURN IS ABOUT TO HIT

And that can ONLY BE the start of wave 3
Dow targets are 7972 to as low as 7560

What intersting is MANY are projecting MID JULY for that event, and I have projected that
also BUT changed in NOW to JULY9th as of yesterday comments

Yes July 15th has some negative connotations , but I dont think its going to be the LOW
I see July15 as a setback in a rally to Jul22nd as a high

More about this later
Its TOO FAR ahead and NO one remembers what I wrote, except me, and sometimes I forget
Jay