THE FUTURE

THE FUTURE
Graphs above are dated JUNE & JULY 2017 as well as the NOTE UNDERNEATH

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

March 11th

IT APPEARS that there was NO WAY ANYONE WAS GOING
TO KEEP THE SPX FROM GETTING to 1150


WOW, that will TEACH ME NOT TO STRAY- what do I mean? you ask --
I USED a DIFFERENT DATA stream, and look what it got me!!
the graph below instead of the one above.
PLEASE keep in mind that Im still learning how to use this new found tool
and will mess it up on occasion, but Im not hiding or making excuses IT DOES HAPPEN

3/11/2010 - published at 8:35am - TODAY'S EKG

NOT MUCH MORE TO GO

Will publish EKG in the AM when there is a more complete graph to show- see above

The power index seems to be showing the ENERGY is about to shift into DOWN gear

there has always been a consistent 36 to 39 day cycle low to low

From FEb 5th that gets us to April 1st in 36 trade days

2/3rds of that cycle or 24 days = Feb 15th
but there is some evidence that the 16th could be quite volatile if the 15th closes up.

the new moon on the 15th at 4pm will catch us DREAMING
but 4pm is a long way from 9:30am
before we rush to judgment about the 15-16th
Lets see what we get on the 12th.

so far the 11th is indicating a lower close, but will have a better look tomrrow AM

More Later
Jay

MORE NOW 7pm
PC ratios bearish -for 2nd day
JAYWIZ index BEARISH , for 2nd day
Today's arms index & Internal Tech data reinforces yesterday's sell signal

3/11/2010 -8:35am - See new EKG above

39 comments:

Reza said...

Thanks Jay

Kirk said...

Thanks Jay... right now futures are all down across the board about .35%. I went home tonight in April QQQQ 45 puts! POOTS!

rrman said...

out of long went short /6e 1.3654

Janeva said...

Jay,
What is your downside target for
this sell signal?? Thanks

sirgiyan said...

Not sure about Jay, but my first target is around 1080 or so

Janeva said...

Sirg,
What time frame? Thanks

sirgiyan said...

I would say monday. The maximum option pain for march is 105 SPY. So I would say we first go to 108 - then 110-111 and finally 105 next friday. That's my gameplan.

Reza said...

Sirgian,

I think they will try to hold it around this area until 15. Sen. Dodd financial regulation plan

Janeva said...

Sirg,
My experience with max option pain
is not too good. I wouldn't rely on it too much. The most open
interest on the SPX is huge at 1100

sirgiyan said...

Which plan? Do you know when it would be announced?

sirgiyan said...

Janeva.
Does it mean that next friday 1100 is more likely in your opinion?

after8 said...

1080 by monday sirgiyan?????

Reza said...

It was supposed to be released today but postponed to Mon

sirgiyan said...

then monday is good for 1080. Anyway it's my plan. If Janeva's take on open interest VS max pain is correct - then we simply would grind higher towards friday - to match 1100. IMHO

Janeva said...

Sirg,
Yes I think 1100 is MAX downside
from now till next Friday. IF we get near 1100 I will sell my puts
pronto.

sirgiyan said...

Cool, if we simply go down until friday towards 1100 - I would sell my puts also. BUT my view is that we might see 1080 first.

Janeva said...

Sirg,
I hope you are right. Good luck
to both of us, but this market
just won't crack.

sirgiyan said...

If you would look at relative performance of IWM, EEM and SPY today - you would notice that IWM and EEM are UNDERPERFORMING SPY for the first day this week, The early warning was sent yesterday by silver. So I feel we are on the right track shorting this thing

Janeva said...

Maybe we just cracked?? If we can
break 114.35 I think we're off to
1130 first stop.

sirgiyan said...

One more confirmation - look at TLT. UUP would be the final nail in this coffin

Janeva said...

Sirg,
Let us know when that final nail is hit. Thanks. Im waiting for a break and hopefully a close below 114.35. That would be my nail.

Reza said...

rrman is right, too much manipulation during regular hours.
Nice moves A/H

Kc135a said...

As much as I want to short about 30 minutes before the close the Index P/C ratios are very bullish for tomorrow's open implying someone knows Retail Sales and/or Mich Sentiment will be market friendly.

Darn it!!!

sirgiyan said...

Kc135a,

http://cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx

Bullish? I see the opposite.

Kc135a said...

I use only the Index P/C ratio which is a big kids hedge against positions so you read it backwards.

I have been tracking the Index P/C by the 1/2 hour for over a year and you will always be ahead following it for the intra day and next days open.


Always disregard the first hours readings since they often get reversed 1 hour after the open.

FWIW the SPY has made a new intra-day high and I was not expecting that going into the day.

Still no new shorts - but I really wanna wanna wanna!

after8 said...

all the years ive been following market activity,this is the worst case of manipulation ive ever witnessed.no joke this is one trumped up bullshit make beleive market.its like watching a film about chart watching..press play and sit back. even similar markets like 2006,at least you knew in the overall price structure we were in the last phase of a super cycle bull market,this just stinks..somebody and i dont know who it is, is supporting this market at all cost.it will break quite badly but where the hell from?

Reza said...

Jay and others,

Any changes to the outlook

Thanks

Janeva said...

So much for Jay's SELL signal.

Kc135a said...

Jay has a great system but like all systems you have to give it some slack.

FWIW I have never seen as many forecast by good and experienced people blow up like I have since October of last year to the current period. Read into that what you want.

Reza said...

rrman,

Any thoughts

rrman said...

we will drop down ah to this mornings low or lower (bottom of the channel )on the euro then rally tomorrow i'm still short /6e should get the low around 2-4 am then will go long into monday....afterhours sunday will be big up not sure about monday looks fairly flat to me after big gap up

Jay Strauss said...

JANEVA
A SELL SIGNAL of the internals
CAN BE DELAYED UP TO 10DAYS

Are you familiar with the ARMS & TRIN indexes??

on FEB 25th
ARMS 5 = 139, a BUY
TRIN 5 = 697, a buy
trin 10 = 1147

On March 10th & 11th
arms 5= 81.4 & 75.4
Trin 5 = 407 & 377
trin 10 = 933 & 916

THESE ARE NOT MY SELL SIGNALS

they are generated from the MARKET's INTERNAL Data such as ADV/ declines & VOLUME

I have kept track of this data for 7 years and it is very telling

but the reaction doesnt have to be IMMEDIATE
and you ALL KNOW THAT

WHEN THIS BABY GOES,
we WILL KNOW IT

POWER INDEX DOES DROP OFF TOMRROW for the FIRST TIME ALL WEEK

There are 15 days till APRIl 1st and the the COMPRESSION thats building up will be exacerbated.

when it starts to cascade, NOTHING WILL STOP IT till APRIL 1st.

Jay

rrman said...

I think the Spring Equinox is the 20th the downside starts after new moon on 15th at 2100 hrs then may intensify after the 20th...if I would listen to Carolyn on his buy the full sell the new moon theory i would have done good this month...

Reza said...

Jay,

JPM had a target of $690 for RUT for 2010. We are at 680 now, seems whatever it is I think the investment on TZA looks safe.

Reza said...

rrman,

U mean close shorts today A/H. Then long A/H for Mon

Reza said...

rrman,

I will remind you on the moon next time. So no one forgets here and everyone is long/short and everyone's investment is safe.

rrman said...

yeah short until the dip later in ah then long until opem monday
here is his last chart not updated for feb/march
http://carolan.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/020110clock.gif

Reza said...

rrman,

Tomorrow's open is it down or up.
Jay's chart is showing down for tomorrow.

rrman said...

Reza I think we gap down