Thursday, March 18, 2010

March Madness

Today's EKG shows NOTHING NEW

Spring equinox and high tide this weekend
STILL holding bears hostage
SPX showing TRUE love
WEAKER than the DOW

THE LONGER they keep it up the WORSE its going to be
They are setting up for a MARCH Debacle
We've had them before so don't just rule it out

Just look at the MATH
Im not SAYING THIS MUST happen, but its probable rather than possible
1170 - 666 = 504 pts
504 X a minimum of 14.6% = 74 pts
504 x 23.6% = 119
and so forth

Elliot wavers would like to see the TOP of P2
but once again, I think its too early for that label
IF not p2, then WHAT, you ask

IMO< it looks like the top WAVE "A" which started on March 9th, 2009
OF course that would mean I would be looking for WAVE "B" to take out
a fibo percentage of the wave "A" gains such as the math above

AND OF Course, wave, "C"-2, should come right on the heels of the Wave"B"
low. and ive been projecting that from April 1st to late June, AND-OR MID July

Activity index is showing weakness at the 100 level down from 133 earlier this morning
120b @ 1:30pm
150bars @ 4pm, OR open tomrrow

more later
Late posting due to unexpected circumstances this AM


Waterbaby said...

Thank You

RickyBobby said...

GAP DOWN tomorrow!

Jay Strauss said...

I dont suppose that ANYONE ELSE has noticed this

Every month since march 9th, 2009

We have had a LOW in the early PART of the MONTH and a HIGh at or near the 18/19th OF EVERY MONTH

So why should this month be any different?


rrman said...

yeah Jay it used to be the new moon high but seems like it has slipped back a week

rrman said...

Don't have an updated on but here is Carolyn's chart showing that..

Reza said...


Can you please check the Apr-May charts. Based on this article about this overbought territory, we had two months of decline

Wed March 17th 2010
Dow Winning Streak Reached Seven
by Jerome "Mel" Hickerson << March
28 1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30 31

In many ways, today’s session was more interesting than many recent sessions. Intraday volatility was a bit higher than recent days and that is a good sign for day traders.

Overnight, the overseas markets were higher across the board. Stock futures were modestly higher at the open. The regular session opened with a small gap upward, moved upward in three micro waves for 30 minutes, followed by a few hours of consolidation with an upward bias; slow drift trading until about 1:30 when buyers once again showed their presence. The index popped upward, leveled off for an hour, and then gave the pop back as quickly as it had gained it. Sellers ruled the tape until 3:20 when buyers bought the dip and took the index moving upward into the close to finish well into the upper half of the intraday trading range.

Internal indicators remain extremely overbought, as they have been for quite awhile. RSI(2) on the SPX has been over 95 for eleven straight days. Since 1928, the only other instance of such a streak is mid August 1972 (which was followed by two months of downturn - but don’t draw any conclusions from one example.)

The Dow and the NYSE Composite today broke above their January highs although volume is still not supporting a general breakout. But the small and mid-cap stocks as the NASDAQ, the Russell 2000 and the SPX MidCap 400 Index have also all hit new highs.

I have heard traders remark that the low volume doesn’t matter; that we’ve “had low volume since July.” Let’s step back and take a look at the volume for two previous breakout levels during 2009. The levels I have chosen to examine are at 944, breaking above the January 2009 highs which happened on June 1st, as well as the break above the level of the “post-crash” high of 1007 from November, 2008 broken above on August 6th.

The June 1st breakout was with volume of 118% of the yearly average (an average which was much higher than we have currently.) Volume for the next couple days exceeded our current volume by almost 50%. Another thing to notice is that on June 1st, the five day average daily range was over 23 points. This breakout was clearly supported by higher volume and range.

The August 6th breakout was with 125% volume, almost 7 Billion shares, and 75% higher than our current volume. The following six sessions never fell below 5.4 Billion shares. Average daily trading range was over 15 points. Again, this breakout was confirmed by the volume.

Both breakouts were meaningful breakouts; volume supported the breakout and the breakout was sustained. Our current volume in the SPX is having a good day when it breaks above 4.2 Billion shares – and that happens with Citi trading near 1 Billion shares daily.

For comparison, the failed January 14th breakout above 1150 came on volume of less than 4 Billion shares and a daily range of less than seven points. The index clearly rejected the new highs in the following days.

It may be true that the volume doesn’t matter here; but it is not true to say that it hasn’t mattered since July. Volume now is suggesting that danger flags are flying with the chance of a reversal down getting greater with each new high.

Our current breakout puts us in historic territory with few precedents; you have to go back 38 years to find even one example of a continuous ramp upward like this and 82 years back to find another. All historic patterns fail at times, just as with any chart patterns. Bulls continue to control this tape; bears need a catalyst that is currently lacking in this unidirectional market. This is truly uncharted waters.

Reza said...

This just in:

NEW YORK, March 18 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks are likely to suffer a correction in the second quarter as anxiety about the Federal Reserve's exit strategy sparks caution, Barclays Capital said on Thursday.

rrman said...

back short /6e 1.3775 overslept and missed the lil top at 1.3725 oh well looks like a big down day to me

rrman said...

1.3625 was the lil top i got in at 1.3575 sorry for the typo