Just as the READING indicated Ths & Fri flipped so far Friday started out with an early urge to spend, and has turned lower running out of gas.
I REMIND All of you that I had posted the MATH MODEL several times which indicated SPX 1009 as potential for the NEXT important pivot. If that does NOT hold today, then its possible the next fibo level of 980 might start looking good for late today.
NO MATTER what the close today, I am STILL expecting a STRONG open, and higher mkt on JULY6 to early 8th
GOLD got CLOCKED yesterday amid ALL the BULLISH talk of last week- Bullish sentiment was the killer, and price should continue to erode till JULY 15th.
Dow Jones inverted head and shoulders and 50 hour moving average resistance http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/07/dow-futures-inverted-hs-and-fifty-hour.html
it doesn't look like we can finish the decline today. we've seen 1 of 5 , now in rebound. but that means that 3/4 & 5 of the final wave will come early next week, imho. so maybe sell off on the holiday - huge gap down on tuesday, and that will be it for 1 of Minor [1]
Jay - US markets are not open on Monday - if wave count is correct we'll start 3 down later today ... but i asumme it will not finish today, but that it might finish on the ES on monday, and then when us market opens on tuesday start of rally
but wait & see what the rest of the day brings, maybe we see a flash crash towards the close and then this decline could be over here and now ...
this is purely based on wave count, ignoring the ASTRO. has worked very well this week so far
tza daily chart is one of the best to see whats going on .....pretty nice trading range for several months it has been working well for me i bought at 5.90 on this last run and sold at 7.90 bought tna to ride it back when tza gets back to 6.50 or so will sell my tna and buy tza back i've made several round trips and tza is the best chart i've found to do this..
Lately Jay faz and tza have been pretty close on the percentage moves a month or so ago tza was moving more but now the seem pretty even...i play more tza because the financials seem to have more issues right now with the new fin bill pending
Looks like I will miss entry on TNA again. It is same thing what happened to me for TZA last friday. At certain levels you have to buy instead of depending on activity index
5min charts are obverbought on TNA and TYH. I decided to not to force buying at the end of the day and hold. If I miss, I miss. I buy price for TNA was under 34,which it hit aroung 12:30
Today's close and behavior of the markets suggest the selling isn't over yet. Maybe a bounce, but we have a long way to go to the downside IMHO. There isn't enough fear and no capitulation.
You do your best and I am so thankful for your efforts!
You can't always be spot on, but your work is excellent and don't ever get discouraged.
I believe cementzak's count is correct and we will bottom around the 975-980 level on the S&P. That will bring in the fear and capitulation and get loads of people short. Today wasn't "it" if you know what I mean.
Happy long weekend to all Americans out there. I wish all of you a great time R&Ring.
For the rest of us - back to studying charts, cycles, etc.
If you look at 15 min charts on TNA and TYH, they are overbought. See Maurice Walkers charts on stockcharts.com. They got rejected and made a doji also TNA may come down to 30-32. Hadik and Helge are both pointing to July 12th low
Haddiik: link www.insiidetrack.com I get free updates from him. He is expecting low on July 12 and rally till mid august. But the problem is, Arch Crawford is talking about some big cardinal climal on Aug 1. See his newsletter posted on Jan 2010. - crawfordperspective.com. I also heard is listened to his radio inteview somewhere
the reason why i like 1010 as a bottom, a retrace to retest the broken trendline would be a 50 Ã 61,8% retracement. another leg down would stop at 980 or so, that would make a retest of that trendline almost unreachable. also i can see big shake-out moves in the currencies before a real strong move in the oppossite direction (EUR/USD , EUR/JPY etc)
44 comments:
Just as the READING indicated
Ths & Fri flipped
so far
Friday started out with an early urge to spend, and has turned lower running out of gas.
I REMIND All of you that I had posted the MATH MODEL several times
which indicated SPX 1009 as potential for the NEXT important pivot.
If that does NOT hold today, then
its possible the next fibo level of 980 might start looking good for late today.
NO MATTER what the close today, I am STILL expecting a STRONG open, and higher mkt on JULY6 to early 8th
Just follow the JULY energy graph
Jay
thanks jay looks good
Thanks Jay,
Can you say when you expect that high point on the EKG?
Your work amazes me!
GOLD got CLOCKED yesterday
amid ALL the BULLISH talk of last week- Bullish sentiment was the killer, and price should continue to erode till JULY 15th.
Jay
Alesund
I would suspect a last hour
rout given a long holiday wkend
Flash has indicated 3:29pm
and there is a 329 bar cycle pivot at the same time
SPx 1009 would be just great for me.
ANY more would be an added gift.
Jay
258bars hit late +6bars at 264,at 10am but it matters not.
DAILY HOURLY turns as you may remember
occur at
11am
1pm
3pm
Watch daily and you will recognize them
Jay
Gold could trade down as low as 1150 and silver as low 16.
Dow Jones inverted head and shoulders and 50 hour moving average resistance
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/07/dow-futures-inverted-hs-and-fifty-hour.html
Jay, what will yo buy at the end of day. TNA, if so will you feel comfortable holding through the weekend. Will TNA calls be much safer
TNA looks good. So does FAS.
it doesn't look like we can finish the decline today. we've seen 1 of 5 , now in rebound. but that means that 3/4 & 5 of the final wave will come early next week, imho. so maybe sell off on the holiday - huge gap down on tuesday, and that will be it for 1 of Minor [1]
cementzak
excuse me, 1 of Minor [3]
VXX is negative
STRANGE!???
There's a good chance for a strong positive close and then tank on Tuesday as cementzak mentioned.
I dont know HOW many times I have to prove my methods
Monday WILL EXPLODE GAP UP
High WILL BE WEd early day
If you have something CONCRETE to
back up an off the cuff projection, please do so.
But we cant trade on what the mkt might do
ENUF preaching Jay- Ok
FAS is a lot cheaper than TNA or TYH
historically, does anyone know if one performs better than the other, OR are they about all the same ??
IM sure that the rally will include financials as well as tech.
Jay
OEX option traders agree with Jay 100%. So do I
Jay - US markets are not open on Monday - if wave count is correct we'll start 3 down later today ... but i asumme it will not finish today, but that it might finish on the ES on monday, and then when us market opens on tuesday start of rally
but wait & see what the rest of the day brings, maybe we see a flash crash towards the close and then this decline could be over here and now ...
this is purely based on wave count, ignoring the ASTRO. has worked very well this week so far
cementzak
Jay, r u still looking for a close at the LOD?
Many thanks for all your work!
Sean
Sorry
I MEANT TUESDAY will GAP up BIG TIME, especially should we FINISH
the wave low today at 3;30 to 4pm
I have written several times about the Monday holiday
Jay
looks like a buy at the close at the lows ..TNA
tza daily chart is one of the best to see whats going on .....pretty nice trading range for several months it has been working well for me i bought at 5.90 on this last run and sold at 7.90 bought tna to ride it back when tza gets back to 6.50 or so will sell my tna and buy tza back i've made several round trips and tza is the best chart i've found to do this..
Lately Jay faz and tza have been pretty close on the percentage moves a month or so ago tza was moving more but now the seem pretty even...i play more tza because the financials seem to have more issues right now with the new fin bill pending
rrman
thanks
Ive been using FAZ also
BUT on close today I wish to get LONG, so will consider FAS & TYH
Possibly 50% each
Energy does not excite me-gg
As far as options, I find the DJX has GREAT beta
the DJX puts on the 29th DOUBLED
from my purchase on the 28th.
Jay
Tza chart that i use i am long tna since yesterday and fas
http://www.facebook.com/ross.aymami#!/photo.php?pid=31394150&id=1127956965
Looks like I will miss entry on
TNA again. It is same thing what happened to me for TZA last friday. At certain levels you have to buy instead of depending on activity index
it starts to look like 1010 could be the low of 1 of [3]
1010, yes but was not supposed to be intraday
Damn
got to scramble to buy in
j
Activity index hit a low at 1pm at
200 now at 3;45 is at 333
and we see the results
J
there is a SMALL possibility
that Tuesday could start out LOWER
to finish the wave, and recover,
Not sure how to play this one.
Tues is an 8day turn with 13 hours at 10am, and a minor neg energy hit at 11am to 11;30
Jay
5min charts are obverbought on TNA and TYH. I decided to not to force buying at the end of the day and hold. If I miss, I miss. I buy price for TNA was under 34,which it hit aroung 12:30
goin lower next week
Today's close and behavior of the markets suggest the selling isn't over yet. Maybe a bounce, but we have a long way to go to the downside IMHO. There isn't enough fear and no capitulation.
Rose
Im standing aside also
Power index seems to indicate a possible low on Tuesday
Havent researched all yet, but wave count does not look complete
Cementzak might have it right and at least he can back up his claim
Jay
see yuh later alligator
should have retested 1010 at the least to mount a rally from a low
Jay
thanx jay
got another chance to buy tna afterhours with the dip
Jay,
You do your best and I am so thankful for your efforts!
You can't always be spot on, but your work is excellent and don't ever get discouraged.
I believe cementzak's count is correct and we will bottom around the 975-980 level on the S&P. That will bring in the fear and capitulation and get loads of people short. Today wasn't "it" if you know what I mean.
Happy long weekend to all Americans out there. I wish all of you a great time R&Ring.
For the rest of us - back to studying charts, cycles, etc.
Alesund
rrman,
Helge's charts seem to suggest strength ending today or on July 5th and then down to July 12th to a lower low that yesterday, July 1st.
Am I reading his charts wrong? They seem pretty straight forward.
I'm just wondering why buy now if you are following Helge's charts?
Have a great weekend!
we might have started a 3 down at the end of the day, in that case monday futures will sell off....
but it is also possible that 1010 will be the low .... i still have some shorts but small amount, no longs
bye now
cementzak
If you look at 15 min charts on TNA and TYH, they are overbought. See Maurice Walkers charts on stockcharts.com. They got rejected and made a doji also TNA may come down to 30-32. Hadik and Helge are both pointing to July 12th low
Rose - who is Hadik and is there a link for his outlook ?
Haddiik: link www.insiidetrack.com
I get free updates from him. He is expecting low on July 12 and rally till mid august. But the problem is, Arch Crawford is talking about some big cardinal climal on Aug 1. See his newsletter posted on Jan 2010. - crawfordperspective.com. I also heard is listened to his radio inteview somewhere
Alesund euro made the huge up wave but the market didnt that wave has to come and tues would be the time
the reason why i like 1010 as a bottom, a retrace to retest the broken trendline would be a 50 Ã 61,8% retracement. another leg down would stop at 980 or so, that would make a retest of that trendline almost unreachable. also i can see big shake-out moves in the currencies before a real strong move in the oppossite direction (EUR/USD , EUR/JPY etc)
cementzak
Rose
CementZak
Alesund
Thanks
I AGREE with all of you NOW
A short term low should occur on TUeSDAY, probably at 1009
The 9th COULD FIND that low getting retested AFTER the rebound
FWIW
the REBOUND I HAD projected for
TUESDAY was PREDICATED on making a LOW at or near close Friday
at spx 1009
THAT DID NOT OCCUR
However,
the LAST 5 minutes dropped 65 pts
setting up a GAP DOWN OPEN FOR TUESDAY, and potential to end the day at 1009
That leases WED for the ONE DAY WONDER rally
meaning I wonder where that came from? gg
Jay
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