hello jay. thanks. trying to fit astro with wave count. assuming we started 3 of 5 of [1] of {3} on friday - gap down tomorrow and down all day, wave 4 bounce starting on wednesday? then down to finish [1] of Minor 3 .... followed by a correction during OPEX week, however i lowered my target to ~1060 ES
ok...logical question (and not trying to show you up,but my head is in a spin here)
on 6/27,your july graph had a low on 6/29 with rally into 7/8,minor retrace on 7/9 then higher high into 7/15...
now I see low on 7/6,minor bounce then much lower into 7/19?????
I THINK this inverted and how often does this change? I am NOT an Elliot Wave believer as all the EW's seem to do is change their count every day...
your original count look more likely,and looking at this updated one,we'd simply continue lower into 7/19 as even the retrace on 7/8 is teh same or lower than the high of 7/6!
I liked the july graph you posted on 6/27 ,and what changed from your "huge gap up on 7/6" call? simply because of friday's close? the next logical question is why predict a huge gap up on 7/6 last weds/thurs if you needed to see friday's closing action in the first place?
again,just trying to understand and praying you are NOT an EW "change as you go" I see a rally either on the open or ny noon tuesday and it will last longer with higher highs than your July graph showin the high on the 8th barely getting back to the 6th's high...
I do agree with Francois for few reasons. TLT looks like it topped (bonds tend to reverse in advance). JNK was even UP on Friday - how is it possible that the smartest guys in the room (bond traders) are buying Junk before crash? Also silver and copper and EURO for that matter are not really selling off lately. The last but not the least OEX P/C ratios are as low as in march 2009. So rally from here might be strong enough to challenge 1120 or so by OpEx
as well,VIX down sharply 2 days in a row and EUR/USD rallied hard off of 6/29 60 minute candles (hammers) on 10 am and 8pm...
as I said last week,UNLESS we NOW have a disconnect of VIX down market up and same in eur/usd, then the whipsaw effect should be sharp...according to Jay's new july graph it may be 1 day into the 8th and barely achieve the 6th's open?
sorry,disagree..again I feel the original call of a 6/29 low was more accurate (simply delayed a few days) and we go higher into the 15th...could it be from a 1010 retest? maybe... it will be very quick though,which makes me feel like the "big boys" want retail out of the way,thus a gap up...tues or weds
I shorted the yen figuring on a big rally tues wed. now the forcast here changes and now states the opposite.....oops again, if this does tank down, the yen goes up and I get kicked in the balls.
the CURRENT POWER data does NOT include 7/19 - the last down leg reads"" 9th""
The JULY MONTHLY graph did show a 6/29low- rally on 6 to 8, then low on 9th and BIG runup the week after- THAT HAS NOT CHANGED
the POWER data this WEEK has me with MIXED feelings about TOMRROW Tuesday -
the ENERGY for the day is NOT severe, yet the power data shows the day weakening,
BUT STILL got a HIGH on the 7th - to 8th@13hrs at 10am, then lower into 9th Helge's date stamp on the LOW shows 12th, but in reality SHOULD be the 9th.
He also shows what looks like a brief rally which seems to COINCIDE with my 7th rally And subsequent drop matching my chart to the 9th
As Cementzak mentioned, Im ALSO attempting to match up with ELLIOTT- might not be too successful at it.
2 sites that are excellent for Elliott are apartofny.com & Elwaverider.com
Both seem to indicate that Friday's LAST minute SELL OFF should continue lower on Tuesday, BUT I TOO HAVE MY DOUBTS about that
THe CYCLE timing as an 8day / 424tr day cycle pivot would indicate a low, which DID NOT OCCUR ON FRIDAY
Charts edge has the mkt DOWN every day next week, but I doubt that also, given Wed as a high energy day.
The MAJOR thing IM CERTAIN ABOUT next week is a LOW on Friday the 9th . And IM CERTAIN about OPTIONS EXP week rally due to POSITIVE energy all week into Thsday
Fridy JULY 16th says HEAD FOR COVER, and that should represent the TURN off the HIGH at 13 hrs again at 10am
Thanks for being alert Jay
If Im awake later, I'll publish the EKG, but as of 4pm Monday its not complete yet
the ONE day pic for the power data on the 6th seems to show
lower open till 10am = 13 hours REBOUND after then late sell off
Francois I did NOT NEED to see friday action, but friday DID not provide the low under 1016, thus that day must be considered PART of the WAVE but not the culmination of it
look at the 2nd and 3rd charts you posted on 6/30...the 2nd was a low,then we ramped up into the 8th,with a MINOR RETRACE into the 9th (still well above the 2nd low) then back on our way into 7/15 +-
NOW,the 9th low is lower than the 2nd? I may be reading that wrong,but since there is NO 5th, your chart shows the 6th going straight down rallying back up into the 8th,THEN making lower lows... so,if the 6th is lower than the 2nd,the 8th around the high (open of the 6th) and the 9th lower than the lows of the 6th,then it is NOT the same as the 3rd chart posted on 6/30...
that is my point,so hopefully you can prove it wrong...the 3rd chart of 6/30 reads the 9th low higher than that of the 2nd's and the 15th higher than that
however, Its possible IF we get a low to 1009 on the 6th we might NOT see the 9th as a lower low,
OR it might just test the previous low ,
OR make a lower intraday and close at or near the previous low-
all kinds of ways the mkt can behave to get where it wants to go.
PLEASE do not OVER USE or add extra meaning to my charts
The only way to eliminate that variance is to just show the day as UP or down, but the POWEr data does show me the 9th as lower, so I published it as I get it
REMEMBER I dont make this stuff UP on my own - IT comes to me from my sources, and I cant change the way that happens
If I change it, then it would be my creation, and thats not reality
As traders we must be flexible to realities , and as mush as we try to determine in advance what the mkt will do, it always seems to find its own way that is different from what we envisioned b4 the actual
ALSO keep in MIND the POWER DATA is ONLY Available within the NEXT 5 days, but the MONTHLY graph is based on ENERGY
the BEST scenario would merge the monthly energy with the WEEKLY power data and of course the DAILY EKG to get a perfect score- but we dont live in a perfect world, and as human beings are subject to making errors.
I still say we're in a summer trading range and we are at the bottom....a crash early in the summer like this is very unlikely and I don't think has every happened if it was August...maybe pull up a daily chart of tza it is the best for the trading range we are in and it is saying market up up up tza down to the bottom of its trading range
I still say we're in a summer trading range and we are at the bottom....a crash early in the summer like this is very unlikely and I don't think has every happened if it was August...maybe pull up a daily chart of tza it is the best for the trading range we are in and it is saying market up up up tza down to the bottom of its trading range
I still say we're in a summer trading range and we are at the bottom....a crash early in the summer like this is very unlikely and I don't think has every happened if it was August...maybe pull up a daily chart of tza it is the best for the trading range we are in and it is saying market up up up tza down to the bottom of its trading range
Jay i know your looking for 1009. I notice lots of times if they can't get the cash to go there they will take the future down which they did to 1002.75 this might satisfy for rally up
24 comments:
I made some design changes today
hope its at least easier to read & follow
Jay
Welcome to Member # 127
thanks for joining
Jay
hello jay. thanks. trying to fit astro with wave count. assuming we started 3 of 5 of [1] of {3} on friday - gap down tomorrow and down all day, wave 4 bounce starting on wednesday? then down to finish [1] of Minor 3 .... followed by a correction during OPEX week, however i lowered my target to ~1060 ES
take care
cementzak
ok...logical question (and not trying to show you up,but my head is in a spin here)
on 6/27,your july graph had a low on 6/29 with rally into 7/8,minor retrace on 7/9 then higher high into 7/15...
now I see low on 7/6,minor bounce then much lower into 7/19?????
I THINK this inverted and how often does this change? I am NOT an Elliot Wave believer as all the EW's seem to do is change their count every day...
your original count look more likely,and looking at this updated one,we'd simply continue lower into 7/19 as even the retrace on 7/8 is teh same or lower than the high of 7/6!
I liked the july graph you posted on 6/27 ,and what changed from your "huge gap up on 7/6" call?
simply because of friday's close? the next logical question is why predict a huge gap up on 7/6 last weds/thurs if you needed to see friday's closing action in the first place?
again,just trying to understand and praying you are NOT an EW "change as you go" I see a rally either on the open or ny noon tuesday and it will last longer with higher highs than your July graph showin the high on the 8th barely getting back to the 6th's high...
we shall see
I do agree with Francois for few reasons. TLT looks like it topped (bonds tend to reverse in advance). JNK was even UP on Friday - how is it possible that the smartest guys in the room (bond traders) are buying Junk before crash? Also silver and copper and EURO for that matter are not really selling off lately.
The last but not the least OEX P/C ratios are as low as in march 2009.
So rally from here might be strong enough to challenge 1120 or so by OpEx
yes sirigyan
as well,VIX down sharply 2 days in a row and EUR/USD rallied hard off of 6/29 60 minute candles (hammers) on 10 am and 8pm...
as I said last week,UNLESS we NOW have a disconnect of VIX down market up and same in eur/usd, then the whipsaw effect should be sharp...according to Jay's new july graph it may be 1 day into the 8th and barely achieve the 6th's open?
sorry,disagree..again I feel the original call of a 6/29 low was more accurate (simply delayed a few days) and we go higher into the 15th...could it be from a 1010 retest? maybe...
it will be very quick though,which makes me feel like the "big boys" want retail out of the way,thus a gap up...tues or weds
I shorted the yen figuring on a big rally tues wed. now the forcast here changes and now states the opposite.....oops again, if this does tank down, the yen goes up and I get kicked in the balls.
francois
Youve got me confused
lets see if we can clear this up.
the CURRENT POWER data does NOT include 7/19 - the last down leg reads"" 9th""
The JULY MONTHLY graph did show a 6/29low- rally on 6 to 8, then low on 9th and BIG runup the week after-
THAT HAS NOT CHANGED
the POWER data this WEEK has me with MIXED feelings about TOMRROW
Tuesday -
the ENERGY for the day is NOT severe, yet the power data shows the day weakening,
BUT
STILL got a HIGH on the 7th - to 8th@13hrs at 10am, then lower into 9th
Helge's date stamp on the LOW shows 12th, but in reality SHOULD be the 9th.
He also shows what looks like a brief rally which seems to COINCIDE with my 7th rally
And subsequent drop matching my chart to the 9th
As Cementzak mentioned, Im ALSO attempting to match up with ELLIOTT- might not be too successful at it.
2 sites that are excellent for Elliott are
apartofny.com
&
Elwaverider.com
Both seem to indicate that Friday's LAST minute SELL OFF should continue lower on Tuesday,
BUT
I TOO HAVE MY DOUBTS about that
THe CYCLE timing as an 8day / 424tr day cycle pivot would indicate a low, which DID NOT OCCUR ON FRIDAY
Charts edge has the mkt DOWN every day next week, but I doubt that also, given Wed as a high energy day.
The MAJOR thing IM CERTAIN ABOUT
next week is a LOW on Friday the 9th .
And IM CERTAIN about OPTIONS EXP week rally due to POSITIVE energy all week into Thsday
Fridy JULY 16th says HEAD FOR COVER, and that should represent the TURN off the HIGH at 13 hrs again at 10am
Thanks for being alert
Jay
If Im awake later, I'll publish the EKG, but as of 4pm Monday its not complete yet
the ONE day pic for the power data on the 6th seems to show
lower open till 10am = 13 hours
REBOUND after
then late sell off
Jay
BEN
Friday's refusal to drop to 1009, seemed to indicate there MIGHT be ONE more day to accomplish that on TUes.
IF we get to 1009 on OPEN & or close
then I will look to buy for the one day rally on 7th and part of 8th
reshort again on 8th at 10am IF they make a high at that time, because the read for day indicates a CHANGE with problems in the aftnoon
PLEASE DO NOT USE my publishing as GOSPEL, and YOU must always
COMPARE with your own trading acumen
More later
Jay
Francois
I did NOT NEED to see friday action, but friday DID not provide
the low under 1016, thus that day must be considered PART of the WAVE
but not the culmination of it
Jay
WOW, you guys are good and have me working overtime-gg
Jay
Our pleasure, Sir
Hi Jay
believe between now and open , the futures wil start ramping UP!
Looking for a Gap Up tomorrow.
Rick
Europe did Nothing today- mildly negative
At 7pm Us futures are moderately negative
I dont know what you are basing your futures prediction on
Jay
jay,
where you have lost me is:
look at the 2nd and 3rd charts you posted on 6/30...the 2nd was a low,then we ramped up into the 8th,with a MINOR RETRACE into the 9th (still well above the 2nd low) then back on our way into 7/15 +-
NOW,the 9th low is lower than the 2nd? I may be reading that wrong,but since there is NO 5th, your chart shows the 6th going straight down rallying back up into the 8th,THEN making lower lows...
so,if the 6th is lower than the 2nd,the 8th around the high (open of the 6th) and the 9th lower than the lows of the 6th,then it is NOT the same as the 3rd chart posted on 6/30...
that is my point,so hopefully you can prove it wrong...the 3rd chart of 6/30 reads the 9th low higher than that of the 2nd's and the 15th higher than that
francois
Ive mentioned this b4
IGNORE Amplitude
IT DOESNT MEAN it will ABSOLUTELY happen that way
however, Its possible
IF we get a low to 1009 on the 6th
we might NOT see the 9th as a lower low,
OR it might just test the previous low ,
OR make a lower intraday and close at or near the previous low-
all kinds of ways the mkt can behave to get where it wants to go.
PLEASE do not OVER USE or add extra meaning to my charts
The only way to eliminate that variance is to just show the day as UP or down, but the POWEr data
does show me the 9th as lower, so I published it as I get it
REMEMBER I dont make this stuff UP on my own - IT comes to me from my sources, and I cant change the way that happens
If I change it, then it would be my creation, and thats not reality
As traders we must be flexible to realities , and as mush as we try to determine in advance what the mkt will do, it always seems to
find its own way that is different from what we envisioned
b4 the actual
ALSO keep in MIND the POWER DATA is ONLY Available within the NEXT 5 days, but the MONTHLY graph is based on ENERGY
the BEST scenario would merge the monthly energy with the WEEKLY power data and of course the DAILY EKG to get a perfect score- but we dont live in a perfect world, and as human beings are subject to making errors.
more later
Jay
I still say we're in a summer trading range and we are at the bottom....a crash early in the summer like this is very unlikely and I don't think has every happened if
it was August...maybe pull up a daily chart of tza it is the best for the trading range we are in and it is saying market up up up tza down to the bottom of its trading range
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=777445286&v=wall&story_fbid=110851175630553#!/photo.php?pid=31394150&id=1127956965
but Euro is at the top of its trading range and will go down big going to be a lot of disconnect between dollar and /es this month looks like
but Euro is at the top of its trading range and will go down big going to be a lot of disconnect between dollar and /es this month looks like
I still say we're in a summer trading range and we are at the bottom....a crash early in the summer like this is very unlikely and I don't think has every happened if
it was August...maybe pull up a daily chart of tza it is the best for the trading range we are in and it is saying market up up up tza down to the bottom of its trading range
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=777445286&v=wall&story_fbid=110851175630553#!/photo.php?pid=31394150&id=1127956965
I still say we're in a summer trading range and we are at the bottom....a crash early in the summer like this is very unlikely and I don't think has every happened if
it was August...maybe pull up a daily chart of tza it is the best for the trading range we are in and it is saying market up up up tza down to the bottom of its trading range
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=777445286&v=wall&story_fbid=110851175630553#!/photo.php?pid=31394150&id=1127956965
/es just recovered all the way back from 1003 lows forming (as we speal potentially) a beautiful "inverted head and shoulders" in the process...
perhaps vix and eur/usd late last week were right....we go up
/es recovered all the way back from 1003 lows and MAY be in process of forming an "inverted head and shoulders"
per eur/usd and VIX last 2 days last week, it MAY be a strong upside retrace for the bulls...1080 and I am out and back into TZA
Jay i know your looking for 1009. I notice lots of times if they can't get the cash to go there they will take the future down which they did to 1002.75 this might satisfy for rally up
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