Heres that CHART you sent me to look atAnd YES it ALSO hows a LOW today and high Late July
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What about today ?
the INDEXES show a DOWN- UP Down day
we have 228bars at 10am = a possible low as now indicated by the opening futures
the Mars 120 at 11am = a high
and new moon cluster at close = a LOW
Activty index which has been DEAD FLAT ALL night has shown a little life at 9am
jumped from 66 to 133 and now sitting at 100 at open
the 24th power index shows potential for recovery high in the AM;
more later
44 comments:
DJI broke Wednesday low though SPX did not. Reduces chance of scenario 2.
Most likely, in i of (iii) of C.
If so, rally anticipated by Jay from possible 10 AM low will be on ii of (iii) and retrace part of the move from 923.8 late Friday afternoon hi. Let us see.
Ravi
Nope. I say it's down all day.
Rolof
Im still going to short Any rebound
from 11am to 11:30 and a lower low could occur tomrrow at 11am
Jay
yes, it can be down more by days end. But a small corrective rally to 908-911+ area should give chance to add to shorts.
Ravi
Judging by the euro... here comes the rebound
Ravi & all
propens index shows a low open
small rebound
and lower close into tomrrow
adding or buying short on a rebound to 908/911 would be a good play-
thanks
I was hoping for an UP morning and lower afternoon, but as I wrote, it never works out the way we think it should -
Jay
Any bounce will be very muted.
Rolof
Velvet;
Where do we look to see
real time on the EURO?
can I see it on my broker's
website? with what ticker symbol?
Jay
Jay,
If your broker offers forex you should be able to see it,
There is a code for the options xde but of course this doesnt trade 24hrs like the spot
Otherwise charts and spot prices available on http://www.fxstreet.com
It is still heading up so I think there should be a bit more upside on the s&p, quite a bit judging from the leap.
Cheers
Annette
Simplest projection will indicates that 892 low can complete C.
A 956.23 903.78 -52.45
B 903.78 927.09 23.31
C i 927.09 915.80 -11.29
ii 915.80 923.87 8.07
iii 923.87 903.23 -20.64
iv 903.23 911.11 7.88448 38.20%
v 911.11 899.82 -11.29 = i -27.27 0.52
v alt 911.11 892.85 -18.26722 1.618 -34.24 0.65
BUT C=A at 874.64 area fit better with 875 support.
C=A ALT 927.09 874.64 -52.45
This will require iii or v to extend in some manner.
Ravi
What does ii of C now look like? 908-909? or more? Thanks Guys.
sam
I suppose I meant ii if v. New to EW
sam
Jay,
For Euro, just go to cnbc.com and under Markets select Currencies where you can get real-time quotes on the Euro.
Keep up the good work
Xtide NOW shows 22nd and morning of 23rd making the LOWS with a rebound to follow in the days after
HIs Natural energy charts showed that low occurring LAST week, but his updates are for today and tomrrow AM
And it now agrees with my indexes.
Sam, I will have to take the hit on those calls unless I hold them which is generally not a good idea.
Gold taking hit as expected, should also make a low tomrrow- its been working along with stocks.
Jay
Jay
The Euro ain't doing didley for your bounce.
tt
Tim M, On his chart had the lows hitting June 23.. Thanks Eric
Any updates Tim...
Keep up the good work Jay
Thanks Jay and Ravi and Annette. we are building a good team now.
so 908/911 still a good entry for new shorts here?
sam
I see positive divg. now in momentum. a bounce in the making like Jay suggested.
sam
Doesn't psychology affect all markets at the same time? So why use Euro to trigger a Buy or Sell? My goodness.
tt
Give it time, the pound just took another hit but has turned up again, I still expect to see a decent bounce - but of course nothing is certain and if they turn down hard again, then well that was probably it.
There is a reason though why the money flows in and out of these currencies right before big movements, but even the big boys cant get it right everytime
My goodness tt, I wouldnt use it as a trigger to buy and sell, it is meerly another tool in the toolbox
You'll get your bounce between 1:00 and 2:00 pm.
tt
REMEMBER the HOURLY TURNS
11am
1pm
3pm
in between we have 258bars at 12;30
low & short term turn??
from there there shuld be enuf time to get to 908 by 1pm to 2pm
Any UPSIDE activity should be BRIEF as mentioned by ROLOF
the LOW so far today was 901.08
from 921
loss of 20 & 21 is fibo
Rebound of 8 pts is FIBO
Also, when they sell in the AM, there is a subsequent sell off after 3pm
11am was the TURN DOWN on friday
as well as the LOW on the 17th ;and 11am should be the LOW on Tuesday
just broke the low to 899.88 at 11:05
Sam
I'm Still looking for an entry point to short any rebound
Jay
activity index STILL DEAD at 66 FLAT for last 2 hours-
FLUX index showed action for the firs time in a week = bearish
Jaywiz index which I cant retrieve until after 6pm showed
ths = 22
Fri =18
both quite bearish
Jay
Jay
ok, It looks like we got to 899.87, Ravi posted 899.82 at 11;15am
we should now get 2 hours and 10 minutes to the HIGH = 1:20pm
if extended add 1 hr and 5 minutes
= 2:25pm
Then more selling
Jay
30bars cycle @3pm
60bars @ 11am Tues.
also 329bars at 11;30 if in play
Jay
Jay
Low so far 898.40. If we get to iii=2.618*1, that will be 894.31.
if 898.40 hold, 38.2 retrace is at 908.13. If we go to 894 area the retrace is at 905.60 which will be back test of Wednesday low.
Ravi
Jay, you said -
activity index STILL DEAD at 66 FLAT for last 2 hours-
FLUX index showed action for the firs time in a week = bearish
Jaywiz index which I cant retrieve until after 6pm showed
ths = 22
Fri =18
both quite bearish
do you mean this coming thursday and Friday?
challo
btw - I posted that link to Annette's chart - forgot to add my name
you guys are on roll. thanks team. I am too waiting to get in short Jay. 905-908
sam
Hi Challo,
Yes I saw that, I actually posted a different chart which I found quite interesting
http://www.mylifemytrade.com/2009/06/eurusd-update-globex-sunday-night-session/
Meanwhile currencies have started heading south again (havent been game to say anything for fear of getting my head bitten off)
Ill drop a note if I see any turn around
Annette
Pound has turned up, just sold my djx puts from friday for a nice profit, so it can now rebound!
Annette
No Challo
that was LAST WEEK
Jaywiz index is NOT available till
6pm of each day
POWER index is the ONLY index that has 5 days advance read, but is sometimes more difficult to read than other times -not perfect by any means but does give some indications of near term future.
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right now its showing a low tomrrow which leads to recovery later on AND a false start RALLY on 24th ,which fizzles with a higher open on the 25th , which also fizzles
Jay
Im off to bed, good night all, btw the euro is just above support @ 1.38 (head & shoulder neckline) and the aussie @ .786, resistance for euro @ 1.392-1.394 which may help determine a turning point if we ever get a rebound
Annette
Sam;
It looks like a LOW might have hit at NOON dow off 180
Activity index moved up to 100 but just dropped again to 66
1pm should offer a slight recovery, but it looks very meager.
Im thinking about buy short at 1;30 if the 1pm slot turns it up a bit
Maybe 900/902 if we are lucky
Low tomrrow at 875 = dow off another 200 pts INTRADAY to 8150 area;
Will need cash to buy back calls then.
Jay
If 896.95 low holds for a while, following are the retrace levels. I expect 907 as most likely, 910 second most likely:
Very shallow 21.4% 902.71
Shallow 38.2% 907.23
Midway 50.0% 910.41
Sharp 61.8% 913.59
V. sharp 78.6% 918.11
Ravi
Thanks jay. that sounds like a plan
sam
not holding any values
xtide shows strait down?
I guess I will take the PLUNGE, and
buy in short
Jay
I'm going LONG now for a scalp long.
Kathy
the 261.8% around 894 did happen. the 38.2% retrace is at 905.45.
Kathy's scalp should work
Ravi
KATHY
WAIT FOR TOMRROW AT 11am to BUY IN
Much much better deal than NOW
a Scalp could do that to you
they did get to 894.06, and right at 1;30 GRRR, they turned UP
but only at 896.24
ONLY to touch the upper Bollinger
1pm seems to have TURNED it LOWER after a one hour & 5 min rest period from the noon low
875 is a very good target and might even get it today?? I hope,
[g]
I have NOT been HUNGRY at all today
Activty index is STILL at 66 and HOLDING FLAT line
Its NOW 1;45 and they are holding at 897.18, just barely 3 pts
Jay
Jay:
Hoping is not a good trading strategy.
Ravi
Ok I'm out with profit
Kathy
Hi, do you still believe Jay that we can run to a new high on July 22 and peak Aug 4th approx. If we go down tomorrow then probably, but if we bounce tomorrow and run to 930 approx then will re-test lows again. Hence, what do you think is the play on a 1-2mth window. Look forward to your feedback, take care Joe
JOE,
I posted 2 sets of charts that show Late july as a high
BUt before that we have July6th as a LOW
How low?
You printed spx930,
did you mean spx 830?
first , then a run to 950 or even as high as 1000??
I usually take it one day at a time, but I thought those charts
were of value so I put them up for review
I wrote it b4
Lunar eclipse low Jly 6th
HOW LOW IS LOW ??
Solar Eclipse high, and Thre are 3 eclipses this trip
another one on Aug5th
ECLIPSES are generally high energy dates, but the lunar eclipse of july6th is wracked with negative energy.
THE READING for July8th says
$$$ follows
TO me, that means the mkt will go UP
Jay
Hi Jay.
I wasn't disputing your 11:00am low call for tomorrow by taking a scalp today. Afterall it was only a scalp. I was flat this morning and I knew I had to buy right away after open but I got complacent and let the market run away on me. Not a good day in that sense. The big money was made downside. Like you said, "a better bounce tomorrow". I'll be buying it for sure and I'll let everybody know.
Kathy
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