THE NEW JAYWIZ 2023

THE NEW JAYWIZ 2023
THE NEW JAYWIZ 2023

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Ravi & Waves

The right MATH is:
from Ravi
HIGH 927.09 to LOW @ 888.86 -38.23
21.4% = 897.04 + 8.18
38.2% = 903.46 + 14.60
50.0% = 907.98 + 19.12 from close at 895 = 12pts = dow about + 100
61.8% = 912.49 + 23.63 from close @ 895 = 17 pts = dow about +136
78.6% = 918.91 + 30.05 from close @ 895 = 24pts = dow about + 192


FROM Ravi
Does your cycle/astro work allow for a sharp move towards 903 ish in th AM followed by a drop below 900 and then a move towards 909 at 2:15 or so tomorrow after Fed speak? If so, 907-909 can be another back up the trucjk and short entry after 2:10 announcement.

Awaiting your bar cycle /fibo answer unadultarated by my wave count and fibo targets.

Thanks,
Ravi

Fantastic -Your analysis need only be superceded by mkt action

Other comments are good also, but dont be afraid to EDIT and cut them short
remember that SOMETIMES ---LESS IS MORE !!

The ACTIVITY INDEX IS ROMPING up now at 266 as I write this at 9am
AND we see the SPOOS Up 8.10

THe POWER index lays out the next 2days like this

UP today , then Fizzle - FOMC, at 2;15 maybe --
we will need to watch FIBO levels YOU laid out very carefully at that time juncture and or 1pm

TOMORROW, the POWER index has the SAME reading
Up till Mid day, then fizzle

this lead to a LOWER open on friday
and continues LOWER on Monday

KISS Elliott means a 3 wave rally that GOES no where today and TOMRROW
but lets watch the FIBO levels
most likley
50% = spx 907 ** easy target for today + 100 dow
61.8% = spx 912 ** most likely to succeed tomrrow
78.6% = spx 918 ** this might be a stretch


THEn the NEXT 5 wave decline STARTING from Tomrows MIDDAY high

I think that makes it very clear

more later
Its now 9:15am
Jay

39 comments:

Jay Strauss said...

Activity index opens at 300
but drops to 166 shortly after

I'm guessing the FIRST rally hits its high note at 9:45, as we do have a 126 b cycle low due at 10am

lets see what spx level we get at that time.
This does NOT rule out another SURGE later in the day and of course another fizzle

Jay

Jay Strauss said...

Right NOW at 903.19
First level at 9:50am might have been achieved - no higher still after 9:45


activity dropped some more to
to 100, but there is a 30 min to 1 hr delay
________________________
trading CHOICES to make

should I short here @ 904 or not??

150bars at noon
could take it all away??
and more??

180bars @ 2:30

Fed = non event??

Or should I WAIT out the CLOSE
to catch tomrrows UP move to Mid day

????????????????

10am high now at 904.19
could make it to 11am HIGH and Hourly TURN

Close today has moon 150 Pluto at 4pm which has a negative reading

Jay

THE BEST SHORT WILL BE OFF TOMRROW's MID DAY HIGH leading to a LOW on Monday from 11;30 to noon
@ 120 to 126bars

Ravi said...

Scaled first short. one sixteenth of max position.

Ravi

Jay Strauss said...

NOW 10;15 at 907.13 high
which is very near the second level

Could be a good place to get short??
for NOON low as per activity & 150 bars

NOT A LOWER LOW, however,

I think I will buy long today's close today if OFF the highs or back near the open

and short the high tomrrow
Jay

Anonymous said...

Thanks Jay, Ravi


good game plan

sam

Anonymous said...

Something doesn't seem right about this rally if correction is ongoing. This feels like a bear-ending correction-over rally to me. Could Ian be right aboutt date for low yesterday?

mlb

Jay Strauss said...

See what spx level 11am brings
should sell off from that HOURLY turn to 150bars at noon

Im thinking 11am high to low close
or scalp at noon

I have errands to run, and will be happy to be OUT

power index shows that tomrrows OPEN should be even BETTER than today

Jay

Ravi said...

Scaled in another one sixteenth. Now one eighth short.

Ravi

Jay Strauss said...

Ian had 18-19low'
AND 25-26 low'
He's GOOD, but not GOD

Low was 23rd at 11am
FOLLOW the BOUNCING BALL RIGHT HERE
on JAYWIZ blog

STOP LOOKING ELSEWHERE
WEve got what it takes
Jay

Ravi said...

mlb;

today's move does have impulsive look about it. it can be end of 3-3-5 from yesterday's low.

On the SPY chart that includes after hours, we just hit the top of the channel. A higher hi opens up the possibility of yesterday being a more important low as in A, B, C completed. On cash chart, channel top is around 910.

Ravi

Ravi said...

channel on cash chart more like 912.

If 912.46 exceeded later, I may get out on next down.

Ravi

Anonymous said...

Well Ian sure acts like he's god and that his "Master" Cycle is god. haha.


ok thanks Jay and Ravi.

mlb

Jay Strauss said...

10:45, i bot a small short position
Approaching the 11am TURN

expecting NOON at 150bars to be a LOW
Could take away the entire gain

Impulsive wave??
shouldnt be
ITS Against the trend
and should work out to 3 waves into tomrrows high, but COULD LOOK like 5 waves from low to high

We had 5 wave DOWN from
June 11to 17
3 waves Up
then 5 more down from 927 to 889
NOW we should get 3 waves UP

OK, its NOW 10:54am and they are
NOW at 910.59

I may have been a few minutes early
can never tell if 10:45 11am will be the high
might have to add more shorts?
Jay

Anonymous said...

Ravi/Jay

another possibilty is that market is in process of creating a "W" bottom. I've seen this pattern before. 2-3 days of spurt followed by 2-3 days of collapse to lower low followed by 2-3 days of consolidation and then it takes off.

mlb

Ravi said...

In 3/16. May take profit on a part if move down.

Ravi

Ravi said...

mlb:

W bottom and take of would imply that A, B , C was completed at 889, which is still the alternate scenario. The first up will be five wave (i), retest would be a deep corrective (ii) and then impulsive (iii). Wave formation of (ii) would be the clue.

Ravi

Jay Strauss said...

12:30 is 156bars which seems to be in play
activity level has been at 100 for an hour, but is moving higher , now at 200 at 12;20pm

Jay

Ravi said...

Out at no loss. Stepping back for better entry and clarity.

Ravi

Jay Strauss said...

Ok, Im out
have to leave for a while
Jay

Ravi said...

Taking a closer look. On one minute bar chart, we did have the flatest 5 wave impulse I ever saw, but it looks like an a,b,c on 15 minute intraday chart.

If Fed was not due at 2:15, I would have taken chance with stop loss at today hi.

Ravi

Ravi said...

On daily chart, just noticed that the top joining 956.23 hi and 927.09 secondary hi is at exactly 912.52 today almost the same as 61.8% retrace at 912.46 or so.

So a higher hi to that level may be a good short entry, as completion of 3,3, 5 corrective wave. Only problem is the Fed timing. If this scenario is right, tomorrow's hi that Jay is expecting would be lower hi but perhaps a safer entry.

Ravi

Ravi said...

Possible C wave from yesterday 3:11 pm:

i 892.55 897.72 5.17
ii 897.72 894.55 -3.17 -61.3%
iii 894.55 910.85 16.3
iv so far 910.85 905.7 -5.15 -31.6%
v 905.70 910.87 5.17
v alt 905.70 914.07 8.37 1.618

So just a tad above 910.85 to 912.50 possible entry.

Ravi

Anonymous said...

Thanks jay and ravi.

i too may wait for tomorrow's safe entry for shorts.

sam

Ravi said...

The five wave down on Dow is clearer than SPX.

So, if we get 3 waves up, non impulsive, after Fed, that can work without a new hi.

Reza said...

Jay,

U were right, FOMC seems non event

Ravi said...

re-entered 1/16 short

Anonymous said...

As i had speculated earlier, FOMC response represents the prevailing trend. it seems that MM are saying it is down. and hence the down response.

will get in the shorts at tomorrow' high.

sam

Anonymous said...

or could it be that this down is B and tomorrow up leg C to 915 and then down? ravi jay?

sam

Ravi said...

We are likely in i of iii of (iii), will be confirmed when DJI breaks yesterday's low which we already came within 3 points.

Anonymous said...

does that mean a bounce to 50% 904-906 under ii of (iii)? and then (iii of iiii to 875? or lower.

sam

Ravi said...

Dow confirms we are in iii of (iii. Safe to enter tomorrow's secondary hi, if corrective, with a stop no higher than today's hi

Ravi

Ravi said...

Entry tomorrow 901 to 905 range??

i 910.85 905.70 -5.15
ii 905.7 908.65 2.95 -57.3%
iii ? 908.65 896.42 -12.23
iv?? 896.42 901.09 4.67 38.2%
v ?? 901.09 895.94 -5.15
(i) ??? 910.85 895.94 -14.91
(ii)????
38.2% 895.94 901.64 5.69
61.8% 895.94 905.16 9.21
Ravi

Anonymous said...

I got in at at 902.5. you think this i.e. iii is over fo the day at 896? or you see more down possibilities?

sam

Anonymous said...

Shoot 901 is right there. so iv is alomst done. so we may see today LOD at 895? and then tomorrow up move per Jay -- 5 waves or 3 waves?

sam

Ravi said...

Sam:
See my 3:19 pm posting , I expected a slightly lower low on v. It will make the 5 down impulse clear. Otherwise some confusion.

Ravi

Anonymous said...

Is this still a iv top now? or could it be abc thing. I never understood thorughlly Ew so please do not mind asking questions. thanks ravi and jay

sam

Ravi said...

Sam:

Until 896.42 is broken, we are likely in iv as showed in 3:19 pm posting. Only by going below 896.42, without going above 905.70 first, can we be sure that it was impulsive 5. 905.7 is where i ended as I show.

Just counting 5 waves does not make it impulse. iv can not go into the territory of i, if iv goes to the territory of i before finishing 5 waves; a different counting such as a,b c may apply . Only exception to this rule is in a diagonal fifth at the end of a major move.

So, a slightly lower opening tomorrow will bring clarity to a impulsive 5 being there as beginning of possible journey towards 945 as was discussed earlier. If so, short on a,b,c corrective from such low will be a safe entry with a stop at today's high at most. IF.

Ravi

Anonymous said...

you mean 845 and not 945 right ravi?

sam

Ravi said...

Cash SPX made a low cents low so far today of 866.27, which is lower than 896.42 low of 3PM yesterday. So there we have a five way down in cash SPX.

So cash SPX says a hi today below 910, and the chart including pre and post mkt activity says a hi just above 910. Take your pick.

If all this is part of ii of iii of (iii), then it won't matter where you enter. The shape of the upmove should give a clue along with Jay's cycle/astro input.

Ravi