thanks Billy,
AS I LAST wrote
It may take 2 to 3 days to get to a short term low on the morning of June3rd.
heres the stats
June3rd at 10:30am =13 day cycle low
June3rd at 11am = 258 bar low
power index opens at 300
prop index declining phase from 3004 to as low at 2992
THUS
A low should occur on June3rd by 11am
but here is the conflict
June3rd is a BRADELY date and thus could close higher
power index jumps from open @ 300 to 450 @ closing
_______________________________________
THE ABOVE WAS written on June1st.
UP close came in spite of ALL MY ATTEMPTS to push it lower --GRRR.
________________________
Now the REST of the STORY
Tomrrow has 60bars at OPEn and both Propens & power indexes agree with an opening DIVE.
However, this time there WILL be an INTRADAY recovery to MID DAY
and THIS TIME a FAILURE at closing which WILL LEAD To a severe sell off on Friday
Jaywiz index = 14
but the PC ratios are not as bearish
thus the support for a mid day recovery
GOLD, nice hit down 18.50
more to follow
more later
Jay
10 comments:
I really hate to say this but sometimes
LESS IS MORE
less posts are better and I cant hold everyone's hand
NO Steve, today was NOT the low and
Merlin is WAY off at least one day.
Happens to all of us who try to forecast the future
Mahendra sounds about right
Tomrrow is JUST a prelude for friday's severe sell off
more later
Jay
Great calls Jay. My hats off to you.
sam
Jay -
Think I'm working too hard in my CPA office.
Actually looks like merlin's low was late Thursday.
Guess I'm on Austraila time while living in Dallas.
Steve70
Jay another great EW analysis that supports your scenario. here it is
from
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/
I coud not resist showing you this. I am excited for 5th and the 17th
sam
I wouldn't be doing any readers justice if I didn't point out some of the other alternate counts. The top alternate is that today was a 5 wave move down and that is the front half of a 5-3-5 zig zag to my B wave low. My chart would show the basic form. That move would enable the lower 920-923 gap to close and backtest 914 breakout support. Its very a valid potential and maybe I should have had it as my top count.
However, the problem with this is that the NASDAQ had overlapping waves (i) and (iv) so it doesn't count well unless you consider it a leading diagonal of some kind but it doesn't really look like one.
But we'll see. Corrective waves can be a bitch to predict. I like 923 as a B wave low. I can also live with a 914 B wave low. Anything under that supports the notion of 949 as a significant top for a while.
Whic of course brings us to our second alternate is that the big triangle breakout only had ONE 5 wave move up left in it as a part of a C wave post-triangle move (which would alter the whole count from bottom slightly).
That would imply that the 5 wave move up is over and the near term peak is in and a decent decline is on the way. Maybe even P2 top. There is strong evidence that a whole bunch of markets are going to correct at once as I said in a previous post.
So to review: Overall I am satisfied with my reasoning that another 5 wave move to P2 peak should occur after a Minor B wave plays out. My primary count has the B wave ending today at 923.85 as I showed in my daily update. My top alternate count is this chart I just posted in that the B wave ends at about 914 SPX and backtests that support successfully.
The very bearish alternate count has P2 topping at 949 and the market is starting to trace out bearish 5 wave impulse moves down.
Jay, Your absolutely amazing! It's your willingness to share your work on the web that takes considerable time with the tedious collecting of a myriad of data. We all thank you!
Please analyse:
http://snipr.com/je0lv
What's your thoughts? Are we even in a wave 5?
Steve70: Your bullish toooo early. Listen to Jay this time. Bottom of this cycle isn't in yet. I have a clear elliot 4 waves with the 4th wave to be completed tomorrow and then down 5th into fri. like jay has pointed out.
Goodluck
Billy.
Something funny with the banks.....
http://tinyurl.com/qtww3z
Wonderful work Jay!
THANK YOU! THANK YOU! THANK YOU!
Pete
Jay,
Any morning updates for us.
Thanks
Less is more. Right on Jay. Your posts are about as clear as possible.
Stay focused on the market and we all
can assume no posts means your opinion has not changed since previous post. Great analysis. Carry
on.
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