FOR The DOW, the action followed the power index closely
this is 1 day/ 1 min chart
OBV is headed DOWN
Macd Crossed over early
GOT 156bars @ 12:30
& 180bars @ 2:30
3 pm hourly took over for an lower low @ 3:15
which would count out to 188 bars, which is not what I generally expect but it does happen
or 3;30 turn at 192 bars.
HOWEVER, 3pm TURNED DOWN ~~ add 32minutes = 3;32pm for another TURN
10day/ 15 min chart has the SAME for OBV
solid DOWN MODE
POWER INDEX and PROPENS index BOTH show HUGE RALLY TOMRROW
SPX WAY ABOVE DOW indicating a GAP UP OPEN of at least 70pts
Both indexes are pointing toward a LATE HIGH, maybe 3pm or later
the 258bar cycle is at 2:30 leaving PLENTY OF TIME FOR A GRAND FINALLE
I got back too late to review my data and get long at the close
The ONLY trade for me now is going to be SHORTING THE CLOSE @ 100%
26th is Bradley TURN date
And 25th is an 8 DAY HIGH & TURN
SPX should make it to 919 = 78.6%
and could even make it to 88% @ 922
the reason I write that is because the PROPENS index is STRAIGT UP from
2974 at the start of today, and finishes late in the day tomrrrow at 2997
Wave iv can be a doosy and FOOL EVERYONE
more later
Jay
43 comments:
From neowave this morning
Unlike all other Elliott and NEoWave
formations, expanding Triangles do not
possess post-pattern confirmation.
That means the S&P will take more
time to retrace the March/June rally
than it took to form. Nearly every form
of technical analysis will suggest the
decline is corrective, which will cause
most to buy all the way down.
I went short @~ 8400, after $US started to rally (about 3hrs b4 market dropped), Euro is now back in its downward channel. If it breaks 1.38 today then I would expect to see a gap down tomorrow.
Annette
I got out of my second batch of short in the after market with a small overall profit in low hundreds for the day. Lesson of the day: Paid for not waiting for Jay's 11 am before scaling into first batch
Reasons for getting out:
1. SPX did not confirm DJI going below yesterday's low. Short term bullish. Because of this, EWI is looking for a high tomorrow above today's to complete a more complex corrective from 888.86, unless SPX 888.86 breaks first and confirms DJI.
2. The wave structure did not complete for sure a 5 impulse down. This can change if SPX opens low and goes below 896.42 and even better if it confirms DJI by going below 888.86. However, even if that happens, that is not too far for a correction up to start from (I count iii where Eric counts v)
3. Last, but not the least, Jay's indicators are pointing to a strong opening.
So, either we get another chance to short above 910.85, or we break 888.86 first and get a chance to short below there.
Ravi
Here is Dan Eric's count of today, down move. Where he has orange 5 , I have have equivalent of orange 3 in my labeling. There is confusion around 2:20 pm.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SkKXbG2bhYI/AAAAAAAAA9Y/qp_DdTsTpgg/s1600-h/spx1.png
Annette:
Where does neowave see the expanding triangle that you mention?
Ravi
Thanks Jay, Ravi, Annette
will wait for tomorrow's opp. to buy shorts.
sam
My has message included:
"So, either we get another chance to short above 910.85, or we break 888.86 first and get a chance to short below there."
For clarity, this rewording:
"So, either we get another chance to short above 910.85, or we break 888.86 first and get a chance to short below 910.85."
Ravi
I have shorted this ramp up @ 910.4 because of non-confirmation of currencies, lets see.
Ravi I will forward the neowave update to Jay so he can forward to u
cheers
Annette
Closed sp short @ 902.7, pound @ 1.6293 +2.3c profit, pound & euro over major support so this will do me!
In early pre-market SPY opened up equivalent to 10 SPX point and almost exactly at yesterday's hi and steadily gave up the whole gain. Very unusual action.
Ravi
Ravi
Send me an email so I can forward from Annette
Jay
jaywiz10534@comcast.net
Im off to play golf this AM
will be back at noon
Sticking to my game plan
to get short near or at close today
Low Monday AM to close positions
______________
Big rally AGAIN late 29th and 30th specifically
__________________
PERFECT setup for kill zone on 30th
Jay
Jay,
Isnt the temp too hot to play golf.
Its OK Jay found Ravis email on here, presume you got the update Ravi?
Annette
Annette, thanks for sending the neowave that you referred to. Neely may be right or wrong, but I gave up on understanding his logic. He is doing a A, B, C, D, E with the E way out of the triangle. That is his own method. I spent big dollars on his book many years back, without being convinced that his unique way made sense to me.
Ravi
The EW reads cleaner in its move from 888.86 cleaner when one includes the after hour trades.
On that basis,move to yesterdays 910 high was 3-3-5 (a), the move down to 3pm , a sharp move to 910ish around 4 AM and drop from there is 3-3-3 (b) and we may see c unfolding towards PM hi that Jay is calling for just above 910. That count leads to a real 3rd of 3rd down from such hi.
Ravi
Jay/ board. any options on crude oil and oil stocks. tia, Z
hi all
it's possible to understand the neely triangle.
Thanks
Buforoby
sorry
question mark
:)
buforoby
OK, IM BACK
got in just im time,
HERE COMEs the RAIN + thunder, etc
Early morning DIP @ 204 bars but it was early.
SPX hit 910.85 and will probably make it there later today and or 912.46.
MY GAME PLAN stands
I will be shorting anything after 2;30pm up to the close as the SPX hits those numbers
Activty index so far today ran from 133 to 300 and has dropped back to 266 and holding at 11:30
228bars at NOON next pivot low
258bars at 2;30
AND
a mild positive lunar aspect at 3:04pm
Reminder that 3pm is also a TURN, and if making a HIGh, it could turn there or at 3:15 at the latest
There is a NEGATIVE
lunar event at 4:11pm
Summary
note
THERE is NO astro TODAY to INFLUENCE the MKT to make anything higher than yesterday's
spx 910.85
Jay
WOW, while I was wrting, the SPX just jumped to 913.23
Im going to WAIT OUT the end of day, and maybe it will just get to
the next level at 919
11am TURN higher came in EXACT
Jay
Delay on the activity index is bar to judge, but a NOON time drop to the 228 bar cycle seems about right
Is it playable??
Thats really scalping
I did it yesterday, but Im
willing to wait to catch a bigger fish tomrrow
Jay
Mr. jay my hats off to you sir. you did it again. thanks. waiting for 919- 922 to load up shorts.
sam
bought 920 spx puts at 22.70
sam
Jay -
Good job the last week.
Not, for a question from the I/T side
Do you expect the 29/30 high to be higher than today's high?
I'm about break even from last week's longs.
I would think next week would go higher with end of the quarter buying.
What does Astro & the Cycles say?
Thanks,
Steve
1pm Makes ANOTHER turn HIGHER
Hmmm
IF 3pm MAKES A HIGH
Then IM in at that point
wow, SPX now at 919.60
at 1;15pm
258bars at 2;30
IT should make way for 3pm high
Maybe pick up some puts right now?? and add more later??
Choices to make
Jay
Ravi:
looks like correction is over. time to buy the dips. going to leave everyone behind. shorts going to get squeezed. I don't care what jay says.
tlz
Ravi, it looks like, from non-expert perspective, five waves completed on the upside. Now what> apprecita your feedback.
sam
921 gap filled
Bought SDS
Caution: if we go above 927.09, wave count would change and I will get off on any correction. Otherwise, ready to enjoy the ride down into Monday
Jay, are still looking for Hi at the end of day?
Ravi
Merc 60 moon at 1;26 gives us a HIGH
off the 1pm turn up
next focus is 258bars at 2;30, a dip
THEN at 3pm HIGh with Moon 30 saturn
and the 3pm TURN- watch for a HIGH
Because THE MOOD SHIFTS right after that and gets Negative
at 4pm close
Power index for 30th has 600 to 650 level- quite strong
but I cannot tell you how high that is at this point in time.
If IT were ME & i had a PROFIT at 3pm, I would take it.
Look at this, I get it right this week and all of a sudden IM a genie{ggg}
Jay
I see neg.divg. now. should see a low around 2:30 per Jay.
sam
Wave from today's bottom:
1 896.27 909.83 13.56
2 909.83 905.87 -3.96 -29.2%
3 905.87 918.84 12.97
4 918.84 915.65 -3.19 -24.6%
5 915.65 921.42 5.77 43%
1 and 3 look clear five waves. 5 not clearly done and if completed it is only 43% of 1. nothing wrong with that but on the short side.
Note that 3 was shorter than 1, therefore 5 will can't exceed 3 in length for the count to survive if we get beyond 928.62. That will raise the possibility of extension up. In any case above 927.09 is bad for bearish case.
Though SPX went far above 61.8% retrace around 912.45, DJI went only marginally beyond 61.8%. good enough for govt work!
Ravi
BOT 91 S&P PUTS JULY (50) Wish me good luck eric
iFIVE WAVES WERE COMPLETED AT 921. nOW A START OF abc? A taking to 2:30 low per Jay and B to higher at close and c to down leg tomorrow? am i getting it right?
sam
eRIC, lUCK HAS nothing to do witH trading
SAM, oN A 10DAY/ 5 MIN CHART, THE RALLY FROM jUNE17TH low AT 11AM @spx 889
IT LOOKS to me LIKE 3 WAVES
hIGH WAVE 'a' to 24th at spx910 at 11am,
24th -Low at 3pm at 896
NOW high at 920 at 1:30 and or 3pm - about 30 min from NOW
Looks like a 3-3-5
Ewave can be very confusing and best left to those who live it.
Sam, suffice to say the NEXT wave is DOWN,and thats aaaall you really need to know
2:30 is providing the minor setback on 258bars
Jay
Sam:
If we have done 5 waves, and are on way down on iii of (iii), the wave down should be in fives not threes.
If we get below 914.85 low low of 2:18 pm, we would be home with the first of these fives. Next hi should be a lower hi than 921.42.
Otherwise, confusion and back to the drawing board.
Ravi
Thanks Jay ravi. it makes it clear.
if we hit today 914 I may take prfit on my puts otherwise enjoy the ride down tomorrow.
sam
Got some FAZ at 4.97, as Jay and Ravi, sell it on Mon.
Jay it looks like we are done with the up move here. your 3 PM bounce was there and it seems that it is heading down slowly like you had projected. Thanks jay and ravi
sam
jay are you in now or waiting for the close/ thanks
sam
ravi it looks like we met your 914 level. what do you think up at the close?
sam
Jay and Ravi -
good job today.
Looks like the bears got skinned again!!
Sam: regarding my 2:36 post, I was looking for a lower low in 914 area as part of the wave in progress at that time, within 1 to 5 minutes. The low 914 that came an hour later was not part of that earlier wave.
Ravi
This correction is over folks. Let's be clear. A correction now will be shallow as this puppy moves into the late July top. Jay is wrong and there's no shame in that. He's been wrong before and he's wrong now. Don't let the rally leave you in the dust. Next correction you better be in. No more lower lows here.
tlz
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