Here is a 10day/15minute CHART of the DOWIm sure I dont have to point out the obvious to any of you
11am recovery in progress now dow +65
OBV is struggling to keep up on the 2day/ 1min chart
same for 5 day/ 1min
10day/ 5 min still tracking
10day /15 min as above in declining phase
Jay
19 comments:
11am HIGh - right on schedule
NOTICE also the SPX is way off the dow
SPX = +3.69 X an 8 factor = 29.52
but the dow is UP 65.58
which actually means there is a negative variance of 36.06
and should have a negative effect
later today
The opposite also works on the upside when the SPX is higher on a comparison basis with an 8 multiple.
Jay
Just to keep you up to date
Activity index JUST dropped from 200 to 100 at noon
expect delay up to 1 hour
=1pm,the next hourly turn AND
180bars
Jay
ALSO
VHF is now a SOLID 8 and has touched 10 at one point earlier
Remember, the HIGHer the value the more bearish the mkt
Jay
Thanks jay. keep it up. your calls are working directionwise. and I know magnitude will catch up by 17th.
sam
Thankyou too Jay. Monday is on the bomb sites.
Kathy
activity index doesnt want to give up yet
now at 166, up from 100
that NOT a big move by any means
propens index does show a drop at the end of the day, and lets hope the mkt actually follows it today
Jay
could the dow and S&P divergence be because of the rebalance of the Dow ?
Jay,
Thanks for your continuing work, much appreciated.
I'll wait for the rally off the LOW monday to go SHORT and then watch the fun until the 17th :).
Like you said in earlier post i too dont want to risk anything trying to go short then long here....rather wait till monday low.
Keep up the good work!
pete
We just brokedown from the channel. we should see nice down leg. Jay when is the recovery time or you are palnning to hold shorts over the weekend?
pete, you mean buy the shorts at Monday's high right?
good call again Jay
sam
hi sam,
sorry, yes that is what i meant...im hoping to buy short (FAZ)on mondays high.
also i think i remember jay mentioning in a recent post that he wasnt planning on holding short over the weekend?..i might be wrong but seemed to remember reading it.
pete
Hi Jay, whats your view on the rise of your HUGE "C" rally to End of month as previously projected. My data does show a decline in late June early July. Thank you for your hard work, much appreciated,thanks
I sold, in this down leg , my puts (june) because of time decay. will get in nextweek's high of the market. may be buy july puts.
May be I will be sorry but presrvation of capital to catch the right trend is also important.
sam
I thought he said go short from 10 thru 17 june. As a matter of fact even Jim Cramer said buy the rally in 10 days
still expecting a severe selloff for today?
Severe sell off??? You are kidding right?
Actually he said "strong selloff" that might carry over into Monday...although I thought he said severe at one point...he also stated:
"SOUNDS LIKE MY KIND OF DAY - the BEAR GROWLS & attacks"
At least jay makes alot of different calls unlike atilla who always calls for a drop...lol Jay should get at least half of them right..
Yes atilla has been bearish since
spx 735 and faz 65(now 4). Over 3 months and he's still bearish.
Have a great weekend everyone.
Monday we start over.
atilla forgot the old adage. It's OK to be wrong, just don't stay wrong.
Steve70
Have a great weekend Jay. Looking forward to your analysis for the next week.
I am all cash with break even
sam
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