It would appear we have a range setup between 920 and 885 for now
& will remain until the lower end is resolved
which may not happen till tomrrow at the earliest
the POWER index remains on a decline thru Friday
And the Propens index shows a similarity to the 16th which opened higher
and turned down at 11am
SO whats the game plan
Futures now point to a moderately higher open
I will still sell some puts at 10am if a low is offered
if not at 10am then at least at the 90bar low at 11;30
Either or situation
And
will consider re entering additional shorts at 3pm
Ian's low on 18th or 19th is looking now IMO, at the 19th
I'll worry abut the 25th-26th NEXT week
A little heads up for Monday - PRELIM astro report
there is a Very positive Mars 120 Saturn at 10:45am
but the new moon seems to be a drag as it also is clustered
with a venus 135 pluto & Sun 180 Pluto
SO, and UP start on Monday should give way to selling in the afternoon
As far as the wave count -- expecting a 5-3-5 correction form the 956 high to 885
It looks like we got 5 waves down from the high as per Ravi, and I agree
it also looks like we may have gotten,
or in the process of completing an ABC rebound off spx904
From yesterdays high at 1;45pm we might have gotten 5 waves down = wave 1
which gives them room for wave 2 UP today finishing at 3pm
heading down into tomrrow for a possible low Friday, and or Monday on the new moon
Ive given up on the idea of a huge rebound for now until the eclipse low of July6th
thru the eclipse high of July22nd
more later
Jay
36 comments:
I believe "flashfusion" has today the 18th marked as a turn. He's been pretty good there.
Alfred
Hi Jay.
I covered all shorts and I'm buying a small long position now.
thanks
Kathy
might wait out the 11:30 cycle at 90 bars???
IMO< There is a greater potential to drop to 885 tomrrow than up to 920 today
Tuesday only got + 33 dow at 10am
Jay
Mon, Tue and Wed of the week, if they are low, then Fri closes lower, thats my observation.
OK, Low at open, then got right to 920 at 10:15am- good trade kathy
That was the "C" wave of the ABC
rebound off the low of 904 yesterday at @ 11am
We'll see now how long this lasts before starting its descent into the 2nd 5 waves making the low most likely tomrrow
Friday
156bars @ 10;30am
180@ 12;30
204b@ 2:30
228@ 4:30 might get truncated at 220b @4pm
Jay
Jay:
(c) not done yet. here is a speculative path,we in c of (c):
(a) 903.78 918.44 14.66
(b) 918.44 907.94 -10.5
a of (c) 907.94 920.37
b of (c) 920.37 915.45
c of (c) 915.45 927.88
Ravi
Ravi
might finish (C) by 2pm today??
propens index drops after thru open tomrow ??
Jay
jay don't know how do you do this. Right on time at 11:30 it started downward. thanks for your help
sam
I took profits
Kathy
Jay:
b of (c) may be turning into a triangle. That should eat enough time to get (C) done around 2 pm or 3 pm.
Ravi
at 11:46 right on the Moon 150 saturn, we got down to +50 on the dow & 916.02 on the spx
There is a Moon 120 Pluto at 2pm exactly and after that it should start to slide lower
Ravi, I see where the 928 comes from -its the high Tuesday at 11am = the top of wave 4 in the previous decline which ended on Wed AM at 11am
Jay
Sam
the 11;46 low was an easy call
combined the bars with astro
Next selling opp is still looking like 2pm a high as I just wrote to Ravi
This is excellent dialouge between
traders
Jay
FYI
activity index did take a little drop from 166 to 133 just before 11:30 and is now back up to 166
Will let you know if it goes higher.
I think 2pm is the high regardless
even if SPX doesnt get to 928, or it might just eke it out to 3pm but I think I doubt that
Jay
hi all,just a word of caution.my itd delta solution has tomorrow/monday as a high with the 25thish next week as a low,making this a b wave in an abc correction with new highs to come in the indices.not saying im right or wrong just my pennys worth.
new target
a=c at 929.45
(a) = (c) at 931.68
50% retrace drop from 956.23=930.00
Ravi
and 923.82= 38.2% retrace for an undershoot that stop at parallel channel based on joining yesterdays low and today
Ravi
Jay:
We are out of the (b) triangle, so 2 pm looks like doable for a top.
Ravi
Ravi and Jay what's your S and P top for today?? Than a drop Thanks Eric
1pm Which is one the DAILY hourly turns is hitting a high at 920.25.
eke'ing out another 3pts is very possible for sure by 2pm
WOW - Ive been waiting for this.
Activity index JUST TOOK A DIVE AT 1pm- about 30 min to 1 hour delay
its now at 66, where it started the day
Tomorrow we hve
150bars at 10am
but the day is busy with more bar cycles all day as posted b4
last one is at 4pm @ 220bars, a bit truncated for 228
I see MONDAY with HUGE OPENING RALLy till 11am on the Mars120 saturn aspect
Another shorting opp, unless yuo buy Friday's close
Good deal the SPX just jumped to
921.75 and seems determined to make the peak- watch Ravi's
923.82 - should be ciming up very soon
Jay
ITS NOW 1;11pm
Could we be done at 1:09? we just made a very small five wave down.
Ravi
Yes I saw that, but Im holding out another few minutes
and here it comes at 1;30 , maybe to 1;45 at the most
Jay
its 1;25
Damn
activity index just jumped up again to 133
not as high as before as yet.
but hasnt had the effect of the previous dip yet.
They are keeping me glued today
I did add some shorts at spx 921+
Jay
Like Jay, I am on high alert to go short whether that's today or tomorrow. I sold a little too early today but that's the breaks. I take what I can get and I'm happy.
thanks guys
Kathy
Top of the 2 day channel now at 38.2% retrace 923.82. double target.
Ravi
I did not get your comment. do you mean we have a double top or that your are looking for 923 to make a DT? Thanks
I bought some puts @ 920. risk was minimum
sam
Sam:
What I meant was that two methods were giving the same top or resistance that that time.
Ravi
What stopped spx below 923 was the line joining June 11 and June 12 tops in the intra-day chart. that line is my stop loss on SPY short.
Ravi
i think we may see new highs in the last hour the way this tape looks.
Jay Can you updated us on tomm the opening and rest of the day anything changed?? Thanks Eric
Jay how is the activity index for the rest of the hour?
sam
HI Sam
Activity index is at 100
Not high and not low
Eric
I will update when theres something more to bring to our attention
Jay
OK, ACTIVITY INDEX JUST DROPPED TO 66
should effect the close
or
Last 15 min
Its now 3;28pm
Jay
jay you are magician. right on time.
how does tomorrow look like. hold the shorts tonight or not is the question?
sam
RIMM reports at 4pm
SO WHAT??
TOmrrow AM has negative connotations
TILL 10am
then Up till 1:333
lower close possible, but I think the 150bar cycle at 10am will be best bet.
I might sell some at close today
to get some cash
Want to buy the close tomrrow
BIG monday open
Jay
Thanks Jay
sam
RIM was clobbered Ah. down $3+.
should gap down nicely
sam
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