As promised from Kevin Murhpy
The theoretical Dow compared to the print is clearly telling us the market is getting weaker. At the on May 8 the Dow Theoretical high 8657, 70 points above the print high of 8587. On May 20 The Dow made a new print high at 8592, 5 point above the print high on May 8th but the theoretical high was 8645, 12 points below the theoeretical high on May 8th. So although the Dow went higher on May 20th, the theortical high was lower. So the second time the gap was 53 points, not 70. The result was a sharp sell off. On May 29th the Dow print high was 8523, which was 69 points below the print high on 20th. But the theoretical high on May 29th was 8541, which was 104 points below the theoretical high on May 20th. So clearly each rall is getting weaker and the market is saying it's done. I Still expect a final push up into June 4/5 but then the theoretical high should be rather pathetic and far below the Mid May highs. KWM
Jay
19 comments:
Jay:
Research based on DJIA is suspect at best and probably of little value today. Research based on S&P and or Total Market is much better.
Jay:
I think the chartsedge weekly forecast looks good this week. It seems to agree with me. We'll see.
Kumar
Man I'm feeling pain today. Is everybody holding their shorts. I know Jay is but how anout everybody else. Coy? Sam? Anyone? Bueller?....Bueller?....Bueller?....anyone?
Steve
perhaps today's mars ingress into Taurus adds force?
a2
I am short as of Friday and holding. I am thinking the Jupiter Neptune conjunction is pushing the market up 940 area should be major resistance . I am looking at the first hour. if we take first hour highs the market should close at the days high.
I'll be shorting tomorrows open I think. Today is a straight up day.
Billy
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I am holding my shorts. see neg. divg. today's tape. Hope for the best. too late to panic. bought some put puts to average down.
sam
Still looking forward to a very beary Monday Jay? Think you're power index is upside down again...that 300 point loss was actually a 300 point gain. Is your power index and astro still showing a strong Tuesday?
Jay,
Any midday update for us.
Thanks
Sam, You seem to be one of the few seasoned traders here. Im sure there are others, but as IVE written, the HARDEST thing a trader needs to learn is WAITING
I get the feeling others think they have been left behind and the dow is going to 9k
After gyrating LOWER this week into Wed early and again on Friday, next week should hold another rally so lets get ready for it MENTALLY
THE END OF THE MONTH has the POTENTIAL to EXPLODE to 9k or above , but there is huge volatility dead ahead as Tim has proposed as well As I altho we do not agree exactly on the timing of it.
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WE STILL HAVE to CLEAR a HOLE mid Month June15th to 17th as Hadik has also projected. His price level at dow 7600 might not be reached, but I have found his DATES quite valid, AND whats MORE they AGREE with mine, and He uses only cycles
Bradley dates CLOSELY packed together on the 14th & 18th.
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the time difference between a LOW thursday @204bars at 10:30 + 258 minutes( not bars) = about 1pm right now dow + 220, and spx at 944
258MINUTES = 8.6hours
it breaks down into my smaller cycles - DAILY hourly cycles of 11am- 1pm & 3pm
the NEXT turn if NOT now at 1pm, then its due at 3:10 pm by adding 2hrs & 10 minutes.
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instead of gyrating between 880 and 909
it seems they raised the bar @ 910 to 940
If 909 is breached this week, we might see 890 once again by the 5th.
MMath @ 909 , then 940
once they broke thru 909 with volume, the magnetic feature of 940 took over along with Merc turning direct.
My power & Prop indexes still stand as posted b4.
RIGHT NOW, I'm standing PAT and I did ADD more shorts this AM, also considering more by 3pm
It still possible to get an open rally tomrrow as shown by Ch-Edge, then a sell off into the 3rd as Ive already proposed by 10;30am
AND IMO, after anther brief rally, lower again into 5th.
UNLIKE C-E, ive got the 5th DOWN, but thats not unusual given his past charts.
Ive mentioned JUNE10th MANY TIMES as a VERY IMPORTANT turn, but it should come from a high similar to right now
June10th 17th has the potential
to take out a considerable decline
with the emphasis on the 15th-16 & 17th
more later
Jay
1:40pm
Thanks jay. this helps me and others too. You can understand evryones concerns.
updie is limited and downside is huge.
sam
I don't think that the downside is huge. If we don't break 880 this week or next, then I don't think this market will go down below it in June. Quite possibly, we'll just churn and grind higher into August/September.
- Shankar
Thanks Jay,
appreciate the update.
pete
Shankar, you are probabally right. I meant on an IT. Like Jay says, 1000 --1040 is in the cards. But we may soon see 900, 880.
sam
Jay,
Any 3 pm update. SRS and SKF may be breaking out.
Still holding my shorts ,, got killed today back to the drawing board
The market went up today .. not down
Short the Open Tomorrow and enjoy a nice ride down for a couple of days.
Billy
Billy
I am short, but ... only VIX is on my side...and maybe USD ... hope you are right... just to get out...lol...
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