Sam
Heres what I was referring to
wave 'a' was 3 waves
wave'b' was 3 waves
wave 'c' JUST COMPLETED TODAY was 5 waves
WOW, at 3:30, it looked like they were coming apart
MY bar cycles did not seem to sync correctly so the 3;30 low
might have been the 258bar cycle occuring again at 270 bars
921.42
Did some one write 922 was possible
oh yeh, it was me
Remember that I posted yesterday to look for the HOD at 4pm
it really did hit at 1;30sh
but tried again at close
Activity index finished on a high at 233
but the after mkt has dropped some to 166
power index GAPS lower from 650 at today's close to 575 at open
and continues lower all day ending at 475
more later
Jay
31 comments:
Jay,
Its safe to be short until Monday, as your analyzation.
Thanks jay.
sam
Jay, do you see Jun 30 high being a higher high than today or a lower high?
Breaking news: Michael Jackson just died.
Arak
Very hard to call that one
I dont have all my ducks lines up yet
Only a few of you realize its a PROCESS of putting the pieces of the stock market puzzle together
and the data only gives me so much to work with
FYI
Astro for longer view
Power index for 5 to 7 day view
Propensity index for next day
and there is other internal data
as well as elliott waves & bar cycles & more.
It all comes together by the morning light
dont epxect me to call a market
days or weeks in advance merely because theres not enuf data to work with- it makes for a weak forecast.
Jay
Jay
I've always wondered how you put together your forecasts. Now I know better. Thanks.
I went long on the pound @1.637 with tight stop to catch the tail wind of this move - nice bull flag on euro/pound. Ride to 1.645. Then looking for a big turn down to confirm Jays analysis. Will short via futures
Annette
Jay, here is a 5 minute EW chart of todays SPY, and a 1 min chart showing complete subdivisions.
and a nice tutorial too -
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/
perfect-intraday-elliott-wave-lessons-from-spy-june-25/
challo
Challo:
His second chart eneding in a, b, c implies we go up in a new 1, 2, 3, 4,5.
You get bearish interpretation only if you label his a as i down and the rest three wave ii.
That remains to be resolved. Today.
Ravi
Dont expect anything dramtic today but a downtrend has begun
they finished 5 waves up from 886
today has
30bars @ 10:30
60b@ 1pm
90b@ 3:30
Monday
120 to 126 b @ 11;30 to noon
150-156 b @ 3:30
That MIGHT be the LOD
We have to watch the behavior of the hourly turns espcially at 3pm
Yesterday for example 3pm TURNED lower to the 3:30 low at 270bars
When the mkt did NOT dive at 2;30, we had to suspect an extension
Power & propens index BOTH show a decline starting today
What does employment have to do with the MKTS-- As per JOE Granville-- NOOTTHHING
I cant understand WHY CNBC commentators who are supposed to be mkt savvy still cant understand that the MKT does NOT respond to EVERY NEWS item that comes out on any particlular day.
And then they have the GALL to make light of people like Arch or Nenner who use totaly different techniques from each other
More later
Jay
The extended hour chart appears to be giving a better reading.
Look at the chart posted by Jay. We just did a five down in pre market after making a hi about 1.5 points above yesterdays hi.
Ravi
what does it mean Ravi? bearish or bullish
Anon:
it opened the possibility on downside, depending where it fits in the higher order wave, which is not yet clear.
Ravi
Nasdaq is still climbing higher, but RSI is showing divergence
thanks Ravi. I am an e-wave dunce. -g-
I thought that the spx might drop enough to fill that 910ish gap (on the 15 min chart) but the daily spy looks as if it is forming a bear flag.
that would seem to confirm Monday's down -
guess we continue to wait . . .
challo
anon's
please identify your comment
with at least a single letter
and if you havent registered as a follower, please do so
its good for my ego to see more people on board
thanks
Jay
PS; I guess the heckler is silent now
Jay, I did not know you were follower of Joe granville. Many young traders have not heard of him. I remember whe he predicted that 100M share will tradeand DJI will swing 100 points. No body believed him. When he gave a sell signal DJI dropped 30 points and it was viwed as a crash.
Anyway, it is good hear from old times.
Thanks jay
sam
I am out of half my short position. With stop loss on the rest.
Reason: The moves from yesterday's hi (cash) and today's hi (cash spx) both look corrective overall with 3 and fives. So chance of a new high is very much there.
Ravi
Ravi,,
Good to see an unbiased ellioticion. I think it's safe to say AGAIN that the bottom is in.
tlz
tlz:
Which bottom is in? YR 1931, YR 2008, YR 2009 888.86 or today's in wave b of c , or?
Elliotician gets biased when they publish and get stuck to a call. My only bias is to take only good risk reward reads.
Ravi
888
tlz
The long corrective since yesterday hi most likely b of (c). Yesterday's hi was then end of a of (c stating from yesterday low.
We are likely to see a new hi, which better keep under 927.09.
We are in very complex corrective up since 666. Very treacherous to read.
Ravi
contd.
If we go over 927.09, to say 931 or so in fashion of Dan Eric's count. But that will likely lead to a low just under 888 as illustrated by Dan.
Ravi
Thanks ravi. Jay how is your separtment doing? any guidance? or no cahnge?
I got stoped out out of spx puts. I need to learn to take profit.
sam
The waves are different for SPX and DJI. DJI made a low post 888 SPX.
Most likely resolution: a higher hi to let DJI complete a 3 wave move from its bottom which can still be counted a, b, c on SPX. In place of a 5 wave 5,3,x
Knock kncok! are you there jay? where is everyone?
going short over the weekend or wait for Monday?
sam
Ok, we got new hi in SPX unconfirmed by DJI.
A sharper down move now POSSIBLE on Monday.
How likely? Jay, what do you say?
Ravi
at 3;30 the activity is rising, but it might be too late to effect the mkt
HOURLY in charge today
11am was a low
1pm was a high & turn lower
3:05 pm = a HIGH & TURN lower
3;30 did a low at 90bars
3;48 another potential high dow-10
3:05 + 32 minutes ~ APPROX
I would have sold out earlier, BUT Monday's open GAP LOWER might not allow anyone to get short.
only 8 min left- they cant do much with that.
I shouldnt say that- Ive seen 500 pts come out in less time
Sam,
I went to a presentation of Joe's back in 1980, and he was my first into to tech analysis
He actually plays the Piano
Music is really the KEY to stocks, but how does one apply it?
OK its SLIPPING away at the close- here comes Monday's open in plain sight [g]
OBv tells the story as it topped
at 3pm on the 1 day ~ 1 min chart
Ditto for MACD & ult
Ravi
today counts at a & b ?
or 1 & 2 ?
In either case 3 or c are bearish delights
Jay
Ravi,
Just because I posted 922 as potential 88% retracment doesnt mean they had to get it[gg]
Irregular "B" means very deep "C"
NON confirmation and plunge on Monday
913.03 intraday low lower than 914.05 of yesterday
OBv on 5 day/5 min chart topped YESTERDAY at 1pm - ditto for MACD
& Ultimate
Jay
..also came down in clean five waves in the last minutes. Getting more likely.
Ravi
http://www.corbettreport.com/articles/20090624_bilderberg_predictions.htm
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