Heres another great chart from Ibo
NOTICE the SMOOTH nearly unbroken wave on the rally from March 9th to June 9/10
90 calendar days = nice symmetry
Anyone else see it as one wave such as a large "A" with NO break yet for the "B" wave
If< as most of us suspect, March 9th wave was the bottom of a very large wave 1 = 17 months in a very long bear market still unfolding thru 2012, then what we are now in might be a wave 2
And since it took 17 months to complete, we should expect wave 2 to last at least 6 months to complete its work which would take us to October where we normally expect the market to take its dive OK, lets come back to present looking at the chart again we have NOT had what might be called a sell off against the main up trend since March 9th However, June10th to 17th IMO
the next question other than time is HOW low is LOW ?
anyone got good idea?
spx gains 300 pts nearly unbroken sets up possible 1/3 swoon??
100 pts in a few days- not out of the question, but not your everyday occurrance either.
more later
Jay
29 comments:
Flash still expects to see 967
Im not so sure about that level, but we still have an
uptrend peaking this week on June10th and or 11th thus leading to the June Swoon I have referenced many many times
My indicators are saying today is an UP, dn Up day, but MOSTLY UP
I will be selling those calls I bot yesterday on any rally at +100 dow pts,
AND WILL be SHORTING the close today, expecting a down draft Wed till 11:34am tomrrow, after which they can recover AGAIN.
Jay
THANKS JAY
Good reading Jay.
Today seems a very news affected day. I guess the course will be changing after mid day...
You are right!!
pk
activity index has just droped from 200 to 100 at 11am with a one hour delay
A review of today & tomrrow seems to rule out a run to spx 967, and Im fairly sure they have already topped the spx but forming tops takes a longer process as we have mentioned several times
Still looks like higher close with a sell off at open tomorrow, then a moderate recovery
BASICALLY
any attempt to BREAK OUT today and Tomrrow should be met with selling until selling becomes more advanced than buying
once again the professionals are selling to those they prey upon to buy their inflated stocks
- ala the general public
otherwise known as DISTRIBUTION TO
yes INWESTORS
Jay
60bars coming at a low right now as I write this
11;30am
Jay
Jay:
You are planing to sell on any rally +100 on DJI, presumably +100 over yesterday's close. That implies that you expect a new swing hi. Am I correct?
If I understand you right, in your system the time is more important than the price. So short at close irrespective of hi of the day??
Will appreciate clarification. Similarly, yesterday you expected the low around 12 to 1, but preferred to go long at 3:30. What was your logic to that?
Ravi
Ravi
Hi Ravi
sometimes trading has no logic
Thoughts some times get in the way
and we fail to pull the trigger.
Today's close ""SHOULD"" be the HOD- no promises
So I will be tempted to SHORT the close - tempted is the key word here
ACTUALLY Im doing what has been deemed the most difficult thing a trader can do
**that's called WAITING**
activity index holding 100 at 12;30
SPX leading the dow higher today
just as it led the dow lower on friday and Monday
I mentioned the SPX effect a few times and again last week
I mentioned the hunger effect a few times, and right now im hungry
more later
Jay
Good work!
Thanks Jay
Keep it up.
pete
Flash now has posted on his Twitter
looking for spx 952.60
A lot more reasonable than 967.
However, IMO, and that of some other analaysts, He will be SADLY disappointed when Jun10th turns in a SWOON rather than a break out
more later
Jay
Jay Hope you had some thing feed:) Hope you dont forget some lunch while you observe these crazy markets.
What are the index ratings for today 2 pm and close?
What is your latest reading for 10th?
flash fusion -- bearish reversal 946, 952 or 967
we are now at 946
kathy hope you have tight stoploss. good luck
sam
Jay:
Re: Flash now has posted on his Twitterlooking for spx 952.60
That is less than a point over 951.69 hi on June 5. If tomorrow is some kind of wave 3, we may not make a new hi.
Ravi
I'm out of longs now. Buying puts.
Thanks guys
Kathy
I think wednesday should be higher than today. What is the logic of going short at close today?
Yes anon
Tomrrow should close at the PEAK
looks like today hit the HOD at 2;45
very typical
IF shorting today till 11;30 on Wed, then a higher close
Jay
Thanks a lot Jay for clarifying. I am still on with my longs qqqq spy rimm hd gs slb and trying for uso
Thanks
pk
OK Today came in close to what was anticipated
ONCE MORE
after a SLOPPY open till 11;34am, we should see a stronger close to that spx 950 level, and brother as they say on broadway - tthhhaaattss
alll folks
Jay
Kathy hit it just right
She evidentally uses her own methods combined with my nonsense, to make her trades work
Jay
Big day tomorrow I think the market is watching the 10 and 30 year auction. The 10 is Wednesday, I think they will buy it sending the market up. The 30 is Thursday, No one will be there but Ben and down we go. Futures will roll as well and i think they would like to keep it up here til they do. waiting to see the highs retested
Astro8
Jay, how do you see tomoorw's open. you had said that it will be down until 11:30 am and move up to close HOD. Is that still your scenario?
thanks
sam
Why next week we are going down? here is a good analysis supporting Jay's calls.
sam
The VIX was cliff-diving today, despite the small gains in stocks.
This is highly unusual. Over the past decade, on days the VIX dropped 5% or more, the S&P 500 rallied +1.6% on average.
There have been 6 days since October 2007 when the VIX was down 5% or more but the S&P 500 was up less than +0.5%. Over the next week, the S&P was negative every time, averaging -3.6%. The most the S&P was able to rally during the weeks averaged +1.2% while the average drawdown (worst loss) was -5.7%.
So that's pretty scary, but it also seems pretty specific to our current market. Prior to October 2007, this kind of setup had very little, if any, edge either way, which makes the recent instances more of an outlier than anything
thanks jay. been lurking on your blog for a few weeks. i find your work of huge value. thanks for sharing.
Does anyone have a link to Flash on twitter Thanks Eric
Eric
on the homepage to the right in green above the follow section.
pablo
Hi Jay:
As I wrote earlier that we may not make a new hi, we did not.
Interestingly, we now have a H&S on the intra-day charts.Left Shoulder = 949.38 on June 2, Head = 951.69 on 5 and right shoulder at 946.92 on June 9.
If we break 926.44 low fro June 8t, the trget is around 899. Symmetry may result in Thursday low not later Wednesday, let us see.
Ravi
Supreme Ct steps aside
Futures busting out to 951
2 scenarios could occur today
1. STRAIGHT up to high by 10am, then peter out the rest of the day
2. Open high, set back to 11;34am and close higher
needless to say my pet indicators are showing mixed results
Activity index at 8pm is up from early am low of 66 to 166.
this is not a 400 or 500 level so its not blown away- we do expect such a reading next week on the 19th.
power index opens at 500
drops to 375, and closes at 450
Flux has some activity today
vhf at 5,- not very bearish but not bullish either
the power index open was hard to read because the 500 is right on the dividing line from yesterday and today
thus the forecast for a closing high yesterday, but today it is somewhat clearer,
and looks like an open high
midday low or 11;34 as per astro
then higher into the close
June10th, hmmm, My ex anniversary
what a day to top out- hah
June18th my now anniv - what a day to bottom out.
strange
___________________________
Ravi,
count elliott with one more up thrust to previous highs
Oil over $70 might be the high for that one and gold up at 963
More later
Jay
ps ;I will be adding more shorts at close today if spx at 950 area
or almost any time today at 950
Flash says turn today - dow at 8800 area
but imo, seems like 8835 is not quite the high yet.
Jay,
Any AM updates
Thanks
I'm sweating a few bullets this morning.
Kathy
Thanks Pablo
Eric
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