If we get a 5-3 -5 correction from JUNE11ththen where are we now?
Ravi has posted the numbers but heres the visual
From June11th I can count 5 waves down from 956 to 905 on the 17th at 11am
this can be either wave 1 or an "A"
wave 2 or "B" was 3 waves from June 17th at 904 to JuneJune19 @ 927
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that was then, this is NOW
NOW we should be in the SECOND set of 5 waves LOWER
AND IMO, the GOAL is JULY 6th just before the ECLIPSE at 4am on the 7th.
IT NOW looks like the first of 5 waves is NOT COMPLETE YET
today as a 3rd wave from 927 to 894 at 1;30today
THEN wave 4 to 3;36pm,
and NOW looking for 5th of THIS LEG at 11am to 11;30 tomrrow
BUT thats only the first wave of 5 yet to be played out between now and July6th
Ravi
Does that paint a clear picture ?
38.2% of 300 pts = 100 pts
would give us spx 956 high to 856 at the low
61.8% = 186 pts = 770
ive seen some analysts offering that level
It would also mean June25th might offer the 856 level, then we would expect
770 level on July6th.
THIS IS ALL JUST CONJECTURE on my part
more later
Jay
waves 1 which was 5 waves
9 comments:
This is an extract from this mornings update by an Aussie elliotician I subscribe to:
One other observation I would make is that the wave I have labeled wave c (green) is so far shorter than a,
which may make it less likely that it is a third wave. However, it also means that wave c could yet extend
further than I have shown with my red forecast line. Either wave 3 or 5 (pink) could yet extend and take
wave c (green) lower before the next rally of significance commences. The VIX volatility index has turned
up, but not enough for bears to get excited.
He also suggests the Aussie dollar may have another leg in its rally to go b4 turning over. I look to the currencies for clues because of the clear inverse relationship that has existed since this bear market has started.
On the other hand Neowave have sent through the following this morning:
"Today's vertical drop confirms "THE TOP for 2009" has been made; the S&P will trend "sideways to down" the rest of this year until it breaks 500. The final bottom could be as low as 375. Whatever 2009's low turns out to be, it will mark the low for the rest of this century!"
They also suggest the Euro and gold are ready for a big bounce which at least points to a sizeable correction.
Some are also pointing out the s&p may be painting out a h&s
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/sc.png
I bought some faz calls on friday which i will try to sell around 880 - after which i will short it, it seems to go down a lot faster than it goes up (a bit like my - no i wont go there)
Annette
Tide work suggests the remainder of the week may be up, while next week looks down going into the new month. Gees!
Jun 12, 2.5
Jun 13, 2.4 Sat
Jun 14, 2.1 Sun
Jun 15, 1.9
Jun 16, 1.8
Jun 17, 1.8
Jun 18, 1.9
Jun 19, 2.1
Jun 20, 3.5 Sat
Jun 21, 3.7 Sun
Jun 22, 2.7
Jun 23, 2.8
Jun 24, 3.0
Jun 25, 3.0
Jun 26, 3.0
Jun 27, 2.9 Sat
Jun 28, 3.2 Sun
Jun 29, 2.5
Jun 30, 2.2
Jul 01, 1.9
Jul 02, 1.7
Jul 03, 1.7
Jul 04, 1.7 Sat
Jul 05, 1.8 Sun
Another 5 waves down? That would imply we're going to new lows right now. I don't know about that. We 're near critical support now and though we go down a bit more I would think we make some sort of a double bottom over the next week before resuming a retest of the recent high.
Now the bears are getting carried away don't you think unless ofcourse the market keeps going down which is really hard to see right now. I'd be careful about committing too much to the downside here.
tt
Don't get fooled ladies and gents. Bottom is nigh so don't miss the train.
Will s.
Jay:
The big issue is :
- Are we in a shallow A,B, C correction from 956, where C started from 927
- OR, Are we in a deeper A, B, C correction of a W wave from 666 to 956, where (iii) of first A stareted from 927.
If it is the first, I do not see going much below 875. If one includes pre-market future, yesterday's initial low around 1:30 pm may not have been (iii), but (iii) either fished at the close or does so early today. If we take it as ii done at close, if we now retace 38% to 904 and change; then unless we get an extended (v), I do not see us going much below 875, following projection gets to 872
A 956.23 903.78 -52.45
B 903.78 927.09 23.31
C (i) 927.09 915.80 -11.29
(ii) 915.80 923.87 8.07 71.5%
(iii) 923.87 893.06 -30.81 2.728963685 -34.03
(iv) 893.06 904.83 11.76942 38.2%
(v) ?? 927.09 872.03 -55.06054 1.618 of i to iii
IF we are in deeper correction, then we are not in C, but in 3 of the first A:
1 956.23 903.78 -52.45
2 903.78 927.09 23.31
3 927.09 872.03 -55.06
4 872.03 893.06 21.03 0.382
5 893.06 840.61 -52.45 1
In the second case, after a deeper A finishes, we still have B, and C to go to finish X. Following possible path indicates that taking us to 782 to finish X and then we end the cycle with Y, if Y=W, that means a top at 1072.
W 666.56 956.23
A 956.23 840.61
B 840.61 898.42
C 898.42 782.80
X 956.23 782.80
Y 782.80 1072.47
For now, those are the two scenarios.
Ravi
Chart by Teaparty: shows potential H&S pattern developing on weekly chart.
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?s=fd4eabc18bfa112961a252cc267e5a3f&showtopic=107567
Mark
Jay:
According to Dan Eric's very detailed count (using only NYSE cash sessions), we may even be done with A, B, C at close yesterday.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/Sj_qXpYb3HI/AAAAAAAAA7w/hI2kiMcHy6A/s1600-h/spx1.png
Dan also has a less likely very bearish count, wherin we finish 1, 2, (i), (ii) from 956 after a dead cat bounce followed by (ii) of 3 going below 875. This is more bearish than my second scenario posted earlier as it apprently implies cycle wave was over at 956. I do not see that because bullishness at 956 was not hi enough.
Anyway, would like to hear your cycle/astro view on timing unadulterated by wave counts. Then only, your view can give some idea as to which alternate wave count is more likely.
Ravi
Flashfusion:
catching up here; 6/23 is a turn day; we caught the SPX 901.8 & chg.; I have SPX 884 or so, range bounce tommorow; trouble though
Mark
There is alot of support in the S&P 880 area and I'm expecting a significant bounce soon. The bears will get skinned AGAIN so be on the alert.
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