If you think YOUR confused - TRY FOLLOWING THIS GUYand HE is GOOD
This chart shows a RED TIDE and a GREEN TIDE
He says that the mkt can follow the red tide or green tide ALL DAY
OR SWITCH between tides at any point where they cross
HMMM -I think I like my indexes better
So far today and its not 8:30yet, we have futures mildy positive
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Im glad I waited for the propensity index to get a clearer picture of today's mkt.
It NOW looks like the 10am Moon 0 Mars will most likely provide the HOD
and possibly get to the spx 923 & or 927 as mentioned by Rafi & JR
THE PROPENS index NOW shows that more clearly ALSO.
FROM THERE, BOTH the power & PROPENS index show a steady drop to the end of day low
HOW LOW IS LOW ??? dont know & it doesn't matter at this point, but it should be substantial
enuf to trade on.
IF we get the LOW and I hope its at least 900 SPX to 885, then I WILL BE BUYING limited
long position.
WHY ? you ask.
Monday at 10:45 is a Powerful Mars120 Saturn
but is followed by a new moon at 3:36pm calling for emotioanl security & defenses
accompanied by a venus 135 pluto & Sun 180 pluto
the reading calls for a SHAKE UP
Summary & GAME PLAN
I expect to sell MY short postion at 4pm today
I expect to buy some longs positions at close today
MONDAY --TO BE confirmed Sunday night.
I expect to sell those long positions at 11am, and buy shorts
I would then expect to sell those shorts at close , and buy long for a rally on Tuesday
Wed calls for CAUTION
Thsday calls for $ problems -BUT I DONT expect any new lows
Thats more than we need to know for now, because It will adjust as we go.
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More Later
Jay
35 comments:
Jay for those of us with some IRA's with trading limitation what do you see the swing type trade being? A downward slope with retrace rallies into August?
Jay:
Since the drop from hi yesterday was not impulsive, we do need a higher hi to start any impulsive drop in earnest. So that fits in with your scenario for the day.
Ravi
rrman
not sure what you want
Im short term
BUt a MORE severe LOW should be seen on July8th
then rally to July22nd
August 4th high
oct10th could offer another HIGH of the YEAR such as 2007
Low next April
Jay
Ravi
Yes, futures are higer for the open= 10am
down from there
but 1;33 still another high point, but should be a lot lower by that time
Jay
I WILL BE OUT of my office FRom 10 to noon
I've LOADED up the boat with SHORTS. Backed up the truck and filled it full.
Kathy
Me too! Now I can go and get some sleep (its 1am here!). Hopefully to be awoken by an sms telling me to sell.
sam here
Im back and its 1pm
Played GOLD this AM and did Ok
just a 9 hole course with 2 hoels over 250yds,
Had a few par 3's
but mostly 4 to6's
total was 39 for 9 holes
90 degree heat
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So far so good
10 am HIGH
11am HOURLY TURNED lower
see what 1;33 brings, and , but it should not be anything much
Im still expecting low at close
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SEE what 3pm brings- hopefully it will be a slight up tick or in the middle of the declining move
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In other words,
I dont want to see 3pm as a severe low, if Im expecting it at 4pm
more later
Still want to buy 4pm at a LOW
Jay
Hi Jay:
Looks like we are in iii of (i) of C from the 956 top. We still need one up and one lower down to complete (i) and more importantly confirm that this is a 5 wave impulse. Let us say that takes half hour. We then have (ii) (iii) (iv) and (v) of C. Wave A from 956 to 904 took 23 hours of trading to complete, B to 927 took about 12+ hours of trading, symmetry suggests bottom on Tuesday or Wednesday and C=A at 875 which is an important support level on charts.
I find it difficult to see how we get there by the end of today's trading session unless you are looking for a shorter C, say C=.618 of A in the neighborhood of 895.
Regards,
Ravi
Ravi
Completing a minor up into Jay's 1:33 area. This looks to me as 4th minor wave within i of (i) of C. If so next down may complete i around 915, then ii up and a big down in iii.
Ravi
Ravi, your script is playing very well. thanks for your teaming up
sam
I covered and took 9 points today. Long is pending
Kathy
(i) may not have completed at 915.80, there may be one more down leg to v of (i) that takes us towards 914.15 where v= 1.618 time i of (i).
Ravi
I'm LONG now , smaller position.
Kathy
looks like(i)was done after all at 815.8, in which case we may have ended (ii) at 38.2% retrace of (i) around and getting ready for the big (iii) down, but I do not see how that completes in one hour.
Ravi
Good job Ravi.
(ii) extended to iv of (i)921.52. Better start (iii) soon. If beyond 924 , I abort the short
Ravi
what is your worst case scenario if 924 were to be breahed. are you looking for 960 or 1000 type of move?
sam
I'm up another 4 p(o)ints so far. hehe
Kathy
Okay I'm out with more prfits. Time for weekend party.
Kathy
Thanks guys and to Jay as always for his hard work.
Anyone holding their shorts over the weekend?? Ravi?? Jay?? Thanks
same question for me? what is the weekend game plan? Thanks for your help.
sam
I am out of spx puts for a small loss. visit it next week.
jay are you going long here?
sam
I am getting out of shorts in after market with a small profit..will take another look during weekend.
The waves still say (iii) down on Monday, but that is opposite of Jay's idea.
Ravi
Good safe trading Ravi. Way to go
If today's secondary hi of 923.87 holds on Monday, we should have wave (iii) and (v) down towards 875 before major rally up. But, in that case we will open with a gap down.
If we exceed 923.87 on opening, we are likely to go to 933-34 area for a more complex B.
Ravi
Make that 933-935 area. 935 would be 61.8% retrace if we are still in a B, not C.
So, either a big down pre-open in (iii) of C, or up first towards 933-935 and then start of C down.
Ravi
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/large-scale-monthly-elliott-wave-chart-of-sp500/
Ravi, thanks for your insight. It supplements Jay's work
Ravi
SPX 936 is a number that FLASH has thrown out there w while ago
And Yes its a good FIBo level
Yes Im long a small position and YEs I gave up a loss to get the cash to re enter shorts in at spx 936 = dow + about 200 pts Monday AM at 11am
A new moon Monday AT 3:36pm could break the spx undet 915, but MAYBE NOT.
the reading does call for insecurity & shake ups
Maybe mkts will react to an Iranian problem as a catalyst
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What I would like to do Ravi is collaborate using ELLIOTT with the aspects that are coming from here to say July8th so we dont get TOO far ahead but gives us enuf time to get a picture and yet be able to make adjustments as we go .
I'll layout the astro in the Am on a NEW posts
Jay
Tomrrow AM, Ravi Im going to LAY out the ASTRO
Welcome new commentators
I see some new names and I like that
Please do register as a follower-its good for my ego
I'll put up some astro in the AM
And we can see how the elliott might fit in to create the next wave
I went to that Elliott site, bit it tells me nothing new aboout what Ravi & I can collaborate on for the next 2-3 weeks
Elliotters like that are good for identifying the PAST, but fore -telling the future is a GIFT , which we are NOW very fortunate to have such a person on board.
More tomrrow
Jay
GOLD hit 940 ONCE again, and backed off
KISS OF DEATH ??
I hope so. its destiny is LOWER
but it also becomes a question of when
Jay
You guys are amazing!
I subscribed to Glen Neely's Neowave site for a two week trial -out of interest to see his predictions. He has called a top and is predicting the S&P break at least 500 later this year in a crash type event.
As far as short term goes he is bearish on the hourly stating weakness is returning.
He does no intraday wave forecasts stating "it is seldom of value to my customers to attempt intra-day wave analysis, especially when Daily or Weekly wave counts are not clear. The only time honing in on intra-day structure is of value is when all larger degree patterns (Daily, Weekly, Monthly) are near the end of their development. When near the middle of a complex Weekly or Monthly structure, it is even a waste of time to follow Daily charts. "
He clearly hasnt come across Ravi.
He has calling a bottom in gold next week follwed by a run to a new high, we will see
Have a good weekend
Annette
Jay,
You need to get some pay per click ads on your site and some advertising out there, you could have a massive following.
I am actually a computer programmer "by trade", would be more than happy to show you how you can get a site going with chat rooms etc at no cost, take a look at "Joomla", open source content management system - www.joomla.org
Cheers
Annette
thanks Annette;
I'll look into it, and
I would need a lot of help programming chat rooms, etc.
For now Im still dealing with my own inadequate skills.
When we get to 100 + followers, It might be time to expand.
I do have google ads on the blog which helps them more than me.
But thats why these blogs are FREE
Jay
To kathy,,
wow. what's your system? the market moved almost instantaneously after each trade you announced the last few days. please give us a clue?
Mark
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