THE CYCLE IS
52 hours = 8days
And
26 hours = 4days
there was 50 hours, if i counted it right from June 11 @1pm
to 23rd @11am at 888 - High to LOW
11am from the 23rd to 11am on the 29th = 26 hrs LOW to HIGH
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next 52 hr cycle = July10th at 11am
AND the 13day cycle hits at 10:30 to 11:30
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BUT THAT doesnt have to be the LOWESt point.
If truncated by 2 hours = 3;30 - 4pm on the 10th as you posted possible.
_______________________________________
Remember the Nov 21stlow was a 13 day cycle pivot, but it came in after an UP open
Nov 20th was the closing LOW
THE EVE of July 9th calls for A change to UPBEAT
leaving me suspect July 9th at close for the LOW
PLUS
ItS ALSO 44 cycles x 4 from OCT 27th where we had a 13 day 55% meet a 4day at CLOSE
next day was UP HUGE
_____________________________________________________
WOWOW
WE NOW HAVE a 4day [26hrs] AND 8 day [50hrs]
come to a meeting at 100% on the 9th at 4pm if truncated by 60 minutes
SOOO
we NOW have the LOW at THE SAME 50 hours from the
HIGh on June 29th at 11am to july10@ 10:30,
but NOW truncating to the CLOSE of July9th at the 4day cycle completion.
Another WOW
and the astro reading for the 9th is quite negative also
Now all we have to see is the power index next week,
and the propens index on the 8th.
So the LOW of 820 is possible on July9th at 4pm
Which means we should see at least spx860 on Monday
more later
Jay
18 comments:
RAvi's math
W 956.23 888.86 -67.37
X 888.86 930.01 41.15
Y 930.01 862.64 -67.37 1
Y alt 862.64 821.01 -109.00 1.618
Scenario for A of Y if 5 waves (could be 3)
i 930.01 912.86 -17.15
ii 912.86 920.69 7.83 45.7%
iii 920.69 892.94 -27.75 1.618
iv 892.94 903.54 10.60 38.2%
v 903.54 886.39 -17.15
Scenario for shallow Y
A 930.01 886.39 -43.62
B 886.39 906.23 19.84 45.5%
C 906.23 862.61 -43.62 1
Scenario for deep Y (alt)
A 930.01 886.39 -43.62
B 886.39 895.72 9.33 21.4%
C 895.72 825.14 -70.58 1.618
Thanks ravi and Jay. I am getting a hang of cycles and ew waves. we may have completed ii or in A. Either way it is down time.
it seems that all roads to 862 or 821 go thorugh 886.39. I would ignore iv, if at all it were to happen (may be small hedge). I would Settle for v, or shallow Y , or deep Y. they all settle down at 886.39.
I am just talking to myself so I remember.
Thanks folks
sam
Thanks Ravi you saved me some money on friday I was short ..took a small loss the market was going know where thanks eric
Eric:
You are welcome. I thought I saved myself money too. However, I was in a meeting this morning and missed entering short at a higher level. Bottom line I neither saved or lost, just doubled up. Now I am short at a level not too far from my Friday short.
ravi
Ravi
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=6396328
What a surprise, futures aree up 7 points to 926 cash level. London FTSE over yesterday's hi.
Ravi
The move has not been supported by a rise in the currencies, would not be suprised to see it all vanish b4 market opens, waiting for pound to drop below todays low then I will short again
Annette
REMEMBER this
I posted a GOOD START for JULY1st to GET SHORT and then I changed IT
to JULY30th which was a DOWNER
NOW we see teh FUTURES support my original outlook
***********************
BUT ASTRO and POWER index show a SOLID low at the CLOSE TODAY
*************************
propens not as clear, but ALL SHOW A RALLY TOMRROW
Jay
Out to the golf course
see yu at noon
Shorts are getting KILLED!!!!
What's going on! I'm losing money!!!!
Rolof
Hi, wondering Jay/Ravi and all if you believe that tomorrow Thurs/Fri will be the peak of the month of July on S&P. If so what do you believe that peak will be 942-950 approx. OIL seems like its going to run this week for sure...
Reviewed this from a seasonality report; Some say based upon seasonality equity markets are stronger than average at the end of the quarter when quarter-end window dressing occurs. The Independence Day trade has a history of gains from the last two trading days in June to the first five trading days after the Independence Day holiday (i.e. July 8th this year). The trade has been profitable 71% since 1950
NOTE, The overall Index in July for the mth performance has gained in only three of the past 10 periods. Average loss per period was 2%. July was the second worst performing month of the year (September was the worst).
Cheers
Joseph
Joseph:
Everything about the market is probability including end of quarter and seasonality; so is wave count and cycle work. Rember all time hi was made in October 2007!!
Yes, one can make a rule not to take a bearish position around quarter end. Say, take only bullish trades that waves suggest; and if waves suggests bearish next move just sit out. Don't have to take every trade.
Would have been a good rule yesterday.
Ravi
Ravi
There's Jay's inconsistency rearing it's ugly head again. The market looks BULLISH-TO-THE-MAX if you ask me. Nothing is going to stop this train. If you are short you are going to get BURNED till your an ash burger.
pl. jk.
I'm so sik of this...so sik. ms market is flyin to da moon and I'm stuck holding shorts .
carter
Ravi:
What's happening here? Is the bullish case justified? I'm confused by this market action.
steve
Steve:
Obviously we did not finish the X wave yesterday at 930.01. This corrective waves are difficult to be sure of.
One indication is from the H&S forming on SPX with Right shoulder peaking at 930.17 and head peaking at 956.23. No wonder 930 was a target with many.
However the line joining the bottoms of H&S is not horizontal. The right should came don to 878.94 and from the head we cam down to 888.86 that is 9.92 points higher in 26 days, or slope of 0.382 points. Today is 6th day since 888 bottom, so 0.382*6=2.29.
If you add that to 930.17 for right shoulder, perfect symmetry should target 930.17+2.29 =932.36.
Today's print high is pretty close to that. One more up down with slightly higher high is possible or we are done. Done will need to be followed by 5 way down after done.
When everyone and there mom sees a head and shoulders pattern, guess what? It fails miserably. In fact, the majority of them fail but traders only remember the ones that worked.
x
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