Thanks Guys and Gals for all the great comments- very useful stuff
EH latest says JULY6th -10th is NEXT Critical LOW & TURN to higher highs
HE uses CYCLES ONLY - NO ASTRO
and it matches EXACTLY my astro outlook for an important low & turn that week
ECLIPSES take center stage
Back to present
PROPENSITY index today starts at 2982 - moves higher in the AM to 2985, then DROPS by end of day to 2976
IT Does NOT give me intraday TIME parameters so I have to look at bar & hourly cycles for that
Bars today
60b@ 11am
90b @ 1:30
120B @ 4pm
Using what we know, we should see the rally stop at 10am - 10;15
11am turns lower with the bars and hourly turn
A 1;30 low should offer a rebound to 3pm, the next hourly turn
and a lower close on the 120bar cycle
_____________________________-
wow -There we go with 11am and 1:30
fascinating
Jun 11 high @ 1:30 @ 956
17th low @ 11am @ 904
19th high at 11am @ 927
22nd low @ 1;30 @ 894
or 893 at 4pm
_______________________________
rebound this am possible
33pts lost x 23.6 = 8 = dow 64
x 38.2= 13 = dow 100 - very typical
34 = perfect fibo
___________________________________________
FUTURES ARE NOT VERY STRONG, and we may not get
as high as the above
33x 14.6 = 5pts
_______________________________-
ITS very possible we get to a LOW at close today
Because Tomrrow's open calls for a FALSE START
huge oversold bounce and creates bullish excitement
AND
the PRO index JUMPS to near top of range to 600 at OPEN
then DROPS back to bottom of the range at 200
_____________________________________
25th reading says money under siege and
Friday calls for a Challenging start-
just the reverse of Wed.
_____________________________________
Summary
Low today after higher start
HUGE start UP on WEd, with fizzle
sluggish on Thsday
Friday open down, better later
Monday 29th = a serious type day
30th = harmonious & good for $$ ~~ Jupiter 30 Uranus influence all day
From there its DOWNHILL TO July6th
and dont forget the 3rd is a holiday
that makes the 6th on MONDAY
Mars 90 Neptune @ 10:43am
Mars 90 Jupiter @ 4;48pm
Eclipse at 4am on 7th
which clears the 7th for take off, but not b4 the 8th has its say
next Eclipse on july22, and there is NO hard energy to stop it
more later
Jay
35 comments:
dont be afraid to EDIT or summarize what you read elsewhere for comments here
think {Less is MORE}
TT, bearish sentiment is NOT strong
JAYWIZ index very bearish .19
Ravi
thanks for the numerical scenarios
my math is a little off
300 pts X 38.2 % = 111 pts -120
which would max out at 840-835
Jay
Sam
oh yeh
Activity index has been FLAT all night at 66 and at open is even lower at 33
wave action?
I did not think yesterday completed a wave and left the door open for lower lows today
Jay
I'm LONG now.
Kathy
NOT GOOD Kathy
Jay
Jay and Ravi,
Compared to EU, dont you think we will be sideways today and tomorrow Fed fireworks, then short at the fireworks.
Fed is NON event
jay
its 10am and the SPX has gained 4.46
just as fibo said it would
jay
As you can see, MY SCRIPT is playing out well today
just becasue i was out of sorts yesterday doesnt mean it will be that way the next day.
Jay
Looks like 1:30 yesterday was wave (iii) after all and we had wave (iv) of only minor retrace to 899.64.
(v) = (i) at 888.35. Probably done just above that. (Not expected: If we accelerate much beyond that,watch out below.)
The real question is the move down from 927 is all of C, or 1 of 3? The character of the next move may give a hint.
Ravi
Ravi
What's the game plan today Everyone shorting ?? Buying PUTS?
Jay or Ravi anyone
thanks eric
Just in case, we did (i) of 3, I will be watching out to see if the up move towards one of the following fibos shows up as an a,b, c correction. If so, I will shorting there. Note the first one close to last Wednesday low
38.2% 903.15
50% 907.72
61.8% 912.29
If it does not look like corrective wave up, I will wait to buy into the next dip.
Ravi
Ravi
Sorry those fibos are just a fraction higher
903.46
907.98
912.49
Ravi
Whats the concensus on the low of July 6th ? will we hit 845-867. Also, based upon seasonality Im trying to research what usually happens on Avg after July 4 which is a weekend, hence July 6th being the Monday after they July 4th holiday. Agrium and Cdn Nat Ress breaking their support line, hence bad news for commodities related stocks. Thanks Joe
Jay:
Re your "my math is a little off
300 pts X 38.2 % = 111 pts -120
which would max out at 840-835"
38.2% retrace is around 845:
666.56 956.23 289.67
38.20% = 845.58
What kind of wave action could get us to that area? Perhaps only if 927-888 was (i) of C. here is a simple scenario using 50% retrace and (iii)= 1.382 of (i) and (v)=(i). A textbook case, except they don't happen that eaxt and (iii) = 1.18 of (i) is more textbook:
(i) 927.09 888.86 -38.23
(ii) 888.86 907.98 19.12 50%
(iii) 907.98 855.14 -52.83 1.382 of (i)
(iv) 855.14 881.56 26.42 50%
(v) 881.56 843.33 -38.23 (v) =(i)
correction to last message
......that exact and (iii) = 1.618 of (i) is more textbook:.....
Hi all. I like ravi's game plan. short at 903-908 or but the dip.
sam
I posting from a conservative news letter ( mid to long term). It gave a sell signal.
""Update for Tuesday, June 23rd. ...
NOTICE: SELL Signal ALERTS ...
1. June 23rd. Sell Signal: We have had a "NOW IN DANGER" alert on since June 17th. for our Super Accelerator rally signals. Yesterday, the SPY's C-RSI Green 2/2 condition hit a S.T. Sell signal. The Super Accelerator has not started to down trend yet, so a full confirmation hasn't happened yet ... but waiting for a full confirmation would necessitate lower prices and much higher risk, so we are fully EXITING our Green 2/2 SPY Long Position and going to cash. This also applies to any IWM/Russell 2000 positions that you may have open. The NASDAQ has been the strongest of the indexes and it did not reach a S.T. Accelerator Sell signal yesterday ... if you have not fully reduced your exposure yet and gone to cash on the NASDAQ 100/QQQQ yet, I would strongly advise it.
2. Multi-Indicator Model: Conditions are a "Down/Down" which is a "Market Down" condition"
good luck to all
I will not lose money today. I may not gain huge either but I will not lose. Still long and looking for exit and next short. Timing was off today. Jay had it right today. good for him. I'm going to kill the next trade for huge profits.
Kathy
I would like to urge all posters(except Jay) to post your trades if you will. It makes a huge difference between talking the talk and walking the walk. Everyone including yourselves will benefit If you will that is. It takes balls or ovaries in my case to post trades in advance and expose yourself for all to see and scrutinize.
Kathy
Jay & Ravi,
I was thinking about FAZ to short financials. For XLF, it is hitting a resistance at 11.60-.62. If u draw a trendline from Sep 2008 -may 2009, there is a resistance, that is a 10 month trenline. If it goes over, then I think FAS will run. Otherwise, FAZ is an entry point.
I agree Kathy. currently in cash. ONly legacy positions on SRS, FAZ and SDS which are close to break even. will sell around 875 or 850. In no hurry to unload.
sam
Kathy you have a shot for your long if we close on a 30 bar min basis above 895.3 per UI blog.
sam
Reza:
If you are doing a leveraged ETF like FAZ, you really need to use the chart of the underlying index or unleveraged ETF, not that of the ETF. In this case, is not the latter XLF? Index chart is preferable, because ETF charts may not be adjusted for capital gains paid off as dividend etc.
Ravi
Thanks Sam and best trading to you.
Kathy
I think the ETF's pays a dividend etc like fas bgu.. watch out after the close not sure my system is showing it
Jay how does it look for the rest of the day? I guess wait wait
and tomorrow's game plan? If we close lower do you go long for the bounce on wed?
sam
I'm out, and looking to go short.
Kathy
Coy's Tide Work
Jun 12, 2.5
Jun 13, 2.4 Sat
Jun 14, 2.1 Sun
Jun 15, 1.9
Jun 16, 1.8
Jun 17, 1.8
Jun 18, 1.9
Jun 19, 2.1
Jun 20, 3.5 Sat
Jun 21, 3.7 Sun
Jun 22, 2.7
Jun 23, 2.8
Jun 24, 3.0
Jun 25, 3.0
Jun 26, 3.0
Jun 27, 2.9 Sat
Jun 28, 3.2 Sun
Jun 29, 2.5
Jun 30, 2.2
Jul 01, 1.9
Jul 02, 1.7
Jul 03, 1.7 Hol
Jul 04, 1.7 Sat
Jul 05, 1.8 Sun
Jul 06, 1.9
Jul 07, 2.0
Just maybe that low is on Thurs, July 2 rather than July 6. But we do not trade on the tide alone.
good call Kathy. I just got in puts looks like jay's scenario is playing out. we see low er low today for the bounce tomorrow.
spx 890 @ 24.20
sam
update
Tuesday, June 23rd. - 3 PM Update
3 PM Update ...
Part of what we are grappling with right now is this: The market strength is (day) neutral right now and the Institutional Index tick is sitting on its lower Bollinger Band after having been in a trading range all afternoon.
This still could allow for some more up movement that would create a stronger negative divergence for a downside short.
If that turns out to be the case, then waiting for the shorting condition is prudent. We are going to call it a day and hold off a taking a short position for now. See you tomorrow
got stopped our for small loss
spx put. crazy market
sam
jay you said -
"Low today after higher start
HUGE start UP on WEd, with fizzle
sluggish on Thsday"
when you say "with fizzle"
does mean mean market closes down
or?????
tomorrow looking for that 903/907/912
and then lower?
Reading Coy's Tide Work
Change and direction must be cifered. The number itself is almost meaningless.
Example of last Monday:
Jun 21, 3.7 Sun
Jun 22, 2.7
A change to the downside of -1.0
This is a bit of a worry what has happened with the euro tonight, it is back in its upward channel, either the rebound from the other night is pending or this correction is over. The dollar index has also broken out of its rising channel. Has anybody got a wave count on it?
Annette
Reza
Be careful when going long on faz, the price deteriorates through the RUT upward OR sideways movement, If we get even a couple of days slight upward/sideways movement it will be back at 4.3 in a flash. For these reasons I think it makes it ideal to short when we are on an upwards track, not much movement needed for large gains.
More on this here http://www.tradingmarkets.com/images/etf020509/tvr3_1.pdf
This is clear from todays action where the underlying index has actually closed LOWER but FAZ has also closed lower
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