heres a nice Elliott chart from KennyHis questions show he has NO IDEA where the mkt is at the moment,
and thats because he has NO way to envision direction from here
and the expected LOW on July6th
Its sort of like taking a trip without a MAP,
and can only see where you've been, but not where your going
Ive found that true of many Elliotters,
but we are VERY FORTUNATE to have Ravi as a contributor
who is not afraid to use the tools we present here
the above chart looks like we got
5 waves down ~~ 956 to 904
3 waves UP ~~904 to 927
5waves down from 927 to 889
those 5 waves might be misconstrued as a complete cycle, but we know better
we already KNOW the rest of the story,
IT JUST NEEDS TO UNFOLD
and follow the script to July6th.
more later
Jay
10 comments:
From my aussie elliot wave update -
Wave count which suggests aussie dollar will rally to new highs has been eliminated for the moment - which in turn suggests market is not about to rise to new highs
For the bearish count he is showing a rally to about 8400 on the djx b4 falling. I Expect to see some strength return to the $US b4 we get there if this is to be the case
Jay, i reread your postings. this is my take of your projections.
Rally Wed. Good time to buy shorts for the July 6 th event. Do you have a time for this high? You manetioned PRO 600 at the open and then down during the day. So around 11 noon HOD? Or may be we look at ravi for the target 903, 909, 915, 919? for the short entry.
thursday time for rest listen to fizzle sound.
friday set up for July 6 event.
So the best short entry is tomorrow? or friday?
thanks jay.
sam
Jay there is fundamnetal issue being discussed by EWers. here is the blurb. If we topped P2 down movement is going to be ugly. If P2 top is yet to be formed then a rally into 1000 is likely and may take summer.
ravi, what is your take?
SAM
FROM:
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/
"I'll add that yes the 50/200DMA crossed today yet on the hourly chart, the 50/200 crossed today in a bearish manner. I will also say that the market is "oversold" but that doesn't matter much if this is a wave [iii] lower. We seen in P1, how "oversold" gets even more oversold until you lose all your money.
In the long run, P3 will kill a lot of people basing bounces on basic TA but a wave 3 of any size will crush bounce expectations. I must not fall into that trap and must stay in tune with the waves. And so far, they ain't a pretty picture if your a bull.
Its this simple folks: Either P2 topped or it ain't. There ain't no "in between". I'd say within a week or less I'll chart which one it likely is. But for now, the market is teetering on the edge of a break much lower in the meat of a wave [iii] move (or even the meat of a wave C move if you desire).
The bulls still have time to recover, but they better get their act together quickly or risk losing 875 support, a key level, altogether.
I have just had a look at the euro on a 1 year chart. Ravi can you confirm this as I am no EW expert but it seems to be in a large bearish triangle.
Touchpoints:
A. IT high 18/12 (spx IT high 6/1)
B. IT low 4/3 (spx low 6/3)
C. IT high 2/6 (spx IT hi 11/6)
That leaves us with D @ ~1.365 on 27/6 -
market turns up shortly after?
Then E on 31/7 @ ~1.415-
market turns down hard shortly after?
Other points of interest:
Euro IT hi 22/9 (spx waterfall commenced 29/9)
Euro low 27/10 (spx IT low 28/10)
While it is far from accurate it has pre-empted a number of major turning points on the s&p - if it is infact in this pattern then it should be a big clue as to what lies ahead
Sam:
Dan Eric's chart has great detail. I agree with the count he shows on the chart posted after close today. Exactly same retrace levels as I posted earlier today. Plus a great channel, in case a fibo retrace comes while kissing that channel: bingo - bingo! back up the trock load with shorts. I will personally use SDS because loading the truck means IRA a/c where I can not short SPY.
Where I do not agree with Dan is this: he seems to equate his iii of (iii) count to P2 having ended at 956. That is simply not the case. Earlier today, I posted a possible scenario of A, B, C ending around 845 and then we going to over 1000 to end P2. Bottom line for next few days: we can get iii of (iii) within next 13 trading hours irrespective of whether we are in P3 or not.
Velvetunderground, your aussie EWer's 8400 in DJI is pretty close to 38% at 904 ish.
PS: the set up is good enough for me to start scaling in shorts at 900. The trick in EW is not just watch the level, but the shape of EW. You want to see corrective waves to short into.
Ravi
Jay:
The Kenny EW count you posted is one day too stale and calls for A,B, C having ended at today's low. So far today, the correction up does not show any impulsive characteristic. So, Kenny is likely wrong in his labelling.
Dan Eric's chart includes today's close and is VERY good in detail. (See my earlier post to Sam regarding where I differ with Eric, but that does not matter for the next 50 points down, if it comes.)
YOUR MATH
THE MATH, not surprising, is wrong. I quote
"we got from 927 down to spx 889 = 38 pts
X 23.6 =9 = spx 904
X 38.2=15 = spx 909 = dow + 120
X 61.8%=24=spx 919 ** = dow + 190 pts
Etc
RAVI- are we on the same page MATH wise??"
Only your first sentence is right.
The right MATH is:
927.09 888.86 -38.23
21.4% 897.04 8.18
38.2% 903.46 14.60
50.0% 907.98 19.12
61.8% 912.49 23.63
78.6% 918.91 30.05
Now, going up from 888.86 earlier today, this is what I see:
a 888.86 897.37 8.51
b? 897.37 892.32 -5.05 59.3%
c possible 892.32 900.83 c=a near 38.2%
c alt 900.83 906.09 c=1.618*a almost 50%
What will be a "back up the truck scenario"?
Look at Dan Eric's charts.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SkFBpzVpWeI/AAAAAAAAA9A/Zg5P6PTasM4/s1600-h/spx1.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SkFBmYSyuPI/AAAAAAAAA84/X-4XwQ6NnI4/s1600-h/spx10.png
If I recollect it right, the top of channel meets 38.2% retrace at 903.46 around 3 pm on Thursday. If we wiggle up ( or in in other words 'fart around' )that long to get there in a complex a,b, c, ab,c, a,b, c ... that will be the real back up the truck short entry with a very small stop loss.(Always stop loss, never get too sure) What is the chance of that happening? Same as finding a winning lottery ticket on the street. Actually better.
Ravi
Jay:
Does your cycle/astro work allow for a sharp move towards 903 ish in th AM followed by a drop below 900 and then a move towards 909 at 2:15 or so tomorrow after Fed speak? If so, 907-909 can be another back up the trucjk and short entry after 2:10 announcement.
Awaiting your bar cycle /fibo answer unadultarated by my wave count and fibo targets.
Thanks,
Ravi
Velvetunderground :
I have not followed the FX market closely. But, doolar strength has coincidental to SPX weakness since Oct 2007 top or so. If that continues, dollar goes up IF SPX tanks down next few days. Same for gold. Gold likely to go down with SPX as Jay said. Gold around mios 650 could be the buy of the decade.
Let us see what the markets have to say. SHE is smarter than you and I.
Ravi
Lately, FED day has brought rally but xtrnd says it follows the prevailing trned. could fed at 2 :15 PM bring down? and reveal the trend?
Ravi, thnaks for your analysis. i got the truck ready and i hope 909 scenario plays out. strop loss will be tight.
sam
Shorted pound @ 1.6530, looks like large triangle setup
Annette
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