Heres another chart I think you'll find timely
I think OIL has had its MAIN MOVE up against the tide,
but it wont give up its gains so easily
It could be another few months b4 lower OIL prices can be seen
in a more steady decline.
Just like stock,s I think it will still be at least until October 1st to 10th
before the tide starts to EBB lower Into Next year
Jay
13 comments:
The alternate count is that today was the top. That means that EWI's count is correct and this was not a B wave triangle but a 4th wave triangle. Since the market traced 5 clear waves with a deep retrace (which can only be a wave [ii]) so by their count it is all over at 956 and some change and a significant decline is coming.
just a paragraph from
FROM Daneric's ELLiott waves
Jay
SPX's (S & P 500) Wave B up (since 3-6-09) of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07 might have peaked today 6-11 at 956.23 (SPX only rose +0.48% since Friday 6-5's cycle high at 951.69), see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. Note that the rate of ascent (see peaks) of the countertrend Wave B Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 rolled over significantly in May and again/dramatically in June, from the rate of ascent during April.
From trade the CYCLES with Joe Ferrazzano
AND I told you all of this would happen WEEKS IN ADVANCE
EH has a dow price level of 7900
on June18-19
thats NEXT week and it means some kind of PANIC effects traders
He also mentioned GOLD starting to SLIDE TODAY, and wow it sure has done that and its only 9;15am
Jay
Just a note to let you know
Activity index has been FLAT ALL morning at 66
Jay
Thanks Jay. I sold my puts this AM. when do you see HOD today? around noon? or would you buy at the close?
sam
I Have SPOKEN to DA REAL CHIEF
and he has sworn those posts were NOT HIS
I choose to believe him and have deleted then from the comments
He says He NEVER visits me here.
SO BE IT
Jay
Hi Jay,
THANK YOU for continued commentary.
Im WAITING for opportunity to SHORT but we seem to be stuck in a narrow channel today.
If it carries on into NEXT week i may just wait for the 17th LOW & go LONG there.
Lets see
Pete
The SPX is going to take out today's low FOR SURE 100%.
STAY SHORT
Billy
I don't think the markets look like theyre ready to fall off the cliff just yet. It might need one more push up on Monday. Everything still feels bullish today.
------------
Markus
jay, will you be posting, similar to last Friday, the next week's nukmbers and time cycle guidance, if you have them analyzed?
Thanks in advance
sam
Jay,
Any closing updates for Monday.
Thanks
DJI30 SPECULATIVE PATH: LIKELY
i 8877.93 8717.11 -160.82 11-Jun
ii 8717.11 8805.53 88.42 55.0% 12-Jun
iii 8805.53 8545.32 -260.20676 1.618 15-Jun
iv 8545.32 8644.72 99.39898232 38.2% 16-Jun
v 8644.72 8483.90 -160.82 1.000 17-Jun
SPECULATIVE PATH: To Jay's 7900ish target
i 8877.93 8717.11 -160.82 11-Jun
ii 8717.11 8805.53 88.42 55.0% 12-Jun
iii 8805.53 8384.50 -421.02676 2.618 15-Jun
iv 8384.50 8595.02 210.51338 50.0% 16-Jun
v 8595.02 8434.20 -160.82 1.000 17-Jun
alt v 8595.02 7913.10 -681.92 1.382 17-Jun
Thanks ravi. this makes sense for the anticipated target. Let us hope. It is not a far fteched target either. it itranlates into spx of 100 points ot about 10%.
Iranian and korean situation would add to the event may become a cause to topple the market.
sam
Sam:
One does need to keep in mind the alternate wave count that is shown in Dan Eric's Elliot Waves blog. If that is the case, we shoot above 956 early Monday in a third of third of v.
The wave from Thursday's hi of 956.23 to Friday low of 935.66 MAY be counted as five waves, but it not too clearly so. Hence the confusion. Only a drop below 927.97 will eliminate the alternative near term bullish count.
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