Sunday, January 10, 2010

Now & Then

thanks Alice
Govt can do whatever they want, but they cant stop the MARKET CYCLE.
IF they had done NOTHING last year from Spt to March,

Andre and others

What would be the BEST BEAR scenario given a price decline from Jan 22 to Jan29th
and what would be the least case scenario ??

in other words
what are the parameter levels at which we could expect support to hold?

We will have approx a 500 point rebound from March 9th to Jan 22.

I had posted data showing an 18 month decline from Oct 10- 2007 to March 9th, 2009
Then 9 months + from Mar9 to Jan 22
22 months = 55% equaling the 55% price gain of 500pts - or damn close to it.

Any decline [ LATE JANUARY] in such a short time slot should NOT represent anything
but a normal setback within a RISING trend still due to reach its pinnacle
on or about JULY 22nd which is equal to 34 FIBO months adding 18 + 9 + 7.

If we apply FIBO to the 500 pts gain, we could see losses of 8%-13% as an expected correction
for example - We had pivots hit on
July8th @ 887 or 7%
Nov 2 at 1030 or 6%

at spx 1070 = to 21% of the 500 pts gain or 100 pts
which only = an 8% loss from spx1165 level

Looking back at Mar 2003 to Oct 2007, corrective loses were limited to about 10% maximum

From a LOW expected on Jan 29, and or FEB2nd
we can then expect a continuation of the UPTREND to JULY 22nd
HOW HIGH, you ask.
wow, you sure are needy[g]

Just a GUESS, but
62% = spx1230
78% = spx 1376

As one example in 1938 the rebound was 62%.
I would venture to say that spx 1230 looks right
which means we can go from 1070 to 1230 from Jan 29 to July22nd

more later


Jay Strauss said...


AM I alone or do some of yuo see the MACRO events over a few decades??

1978 to 1982 saw COLD, SNOW & DROUGHT
1982 to 2006 showed us WARMING year after year, but increasing storm activity especially hurricanes near the end in 2005.
AND at the SAME TIME A BOOMING ECONOMY that seemed like it would NEVER END-HAH.

NOW weve had an economic BUST, and the weather has turned COLD< and SNOWY worldwide, once again

the crash of 1987 occured in the middle of a warming trend and was now just a BLIP in an overall rising trend for stocks and temperatures.


Anonymous said...

Great Stuff Jay.

I'm loading up on stocks tomorrow. I finally have the confidence to get in now.
I appreciate the hard work that you do and helping al of us make money in this Bull market. I can hardly wait to get next months Statement and finally get my retirement savings back on track.


rrman said...

Marty wait until wed to go in long we are at the top of an up wave that will come down monday all day pop up tues then back down tues eve and wed afternoon we will have a huge wave up thurs/fri/mon into flashes 3 legged tops

MKT: next 3 leg turn up is 1/19, 1/22, 1/25 but there is a trading low in there between now & then so go find the day :-)
about 4 hours ago from web
MKT: we still have a vacuum down at about 1100 SPX; a lil dangerous here; I don't call trading positions as that is your responsibility :-)
about 4 hours ago from web
MKT: for z record, I don't do crashes, nor call MKT tops per se; there's enough tweets to see SIMON's capability now easily
about 4 hours ago from web
MKT: For z record still no wkly sell on the DOW; in fact the tape continues to be stretched upward; 1/4,1/6,1/8 was just a trading string
about 4 hours ago from web
MKT: Rocking & DOW puts in new highs for year, as advertised; 1/4, 1/6, 1/8; traders don't see these up legs & most never will, SIMON Says
about 24 hours ago from web
MKT: several have asked how does SIMON work ? he's workin just fine ! about 320 thousand data points strong
12:47 PM Jan 6th from web
MKT: highs coming in right on schedule; 1/4, 1/6, 1/8 (one more left to go), as advertised
12:46 PM Jan 6th from web

The FLASH...

rrman said...

Look at the 3rd chart down Helge's waves and you'll see what i'm talking about it looks like we might be rotating into up fridays and down mondays ...

Anonymous said...

Futures are SPIKING!!

Asia is UP!!

It's liftoff and there's no looking back.

Thankyou Mz. Market.
Thankyou Bernanke
Thankyou Goldman
Thankyou Barrack Obama...You are my hero. Don't let the republicans back into power because they will ruin the country and turn it into a Hitlerite dictatorship where many more genocides will occur all around the world.

3 cheers for the Bulls


Anonymous said...

I'm buying the gap tomorrow. The Spx is set to run away this time. Too many times I've sat paralyzed watching as it took off and left me behind flat without any profits.


Anonymous said...


wow, look at Gold go.

Any idea on a Gold target? I think equities will follow gold.

It definitely feels like we're in a new market paradigm where the rise is steady and relentless.

Tom L

Anonymous said...

5 point Gap so far. This is spectacular. I th\ink an easy 10, maybe 15 point Gap up by monday open. I'll sleep well tonight for sure. If it opens 15-20 points up I might even take some profits early and go long at 11:00 for a rally till close. Just follow the script boys. It's a bull rallly into Options Expiration. Just holde'em steady and let the market do the work for you. It's nthat easy.


Anonymous said...

Ian Raja-car "times&Cycles" is going to lose alot of subscribers this week when his Top call fails.

I don't mean to be cruel but I just use simple T&A and even I can figure out the market isn't going to decline here....and it's free!!



Anonymous said...

gold is running away. Amazing.


Anonymous said...

Futures still rising. (ggg)


Anonymous said...

Anyone else see the ChartsEdge chart for this upcoming week?
I don't think it''s accurate. I think it just goes straight up and won't dip. That dip will happen after Fri. and it will just be a fraction of the Chartsedge drop. There are way too many bears on the enternet blogs this weekend and that usually spells a contrary move as the Elliotwave traders are on the same side.


Anonymous said...

Anyone else see the ChartsEdge chart for this upcoming week?
I don't think it''s accurate. I think it just goes straight up and won't dip. That dip will happen after Fri. and it will just be a fraction of the Chartsedge drop. There are way too many bears on the enternet blogs this weekend and that usually spells a contrary move as the Elliotwave traders are on the same side.


Anonymous said...

We remain in Buy Mode, looking for a move higher into 1/19.

This coming Friday is options expiration. The market has a way to reverse on those dates. Given that and our key reversal date, I’d expect the move higher to continue into Friday or the following week.


Anonymous said...

futures up 6 Points!

10 points by 2:00am

15-20 points by Monday open

sweet dreams


Anonymous said...

Now 7 points UP!

.....and counting!


Anonymous said...

Futures are rockin! If you must , don't short until at least 1150 or maybe 1160 if they decide to launch this tomorrow morning. We are going to gap up and rally tomorrow imo...looks like they want 1200 soon b4 any decent downtrend.

Anonymous said...

Gap up which will be faded big time and turn down hard and the market is not going to look back


Anonymous said...

I am short from ES 1091. My new software says so


Anonymous said...

Sol& Atilla

You guys are always short.

Give it up

We're going to 1200 by Friday in a straight line.


Anonymous said...

I agree guys. This a GapUP and GO day. I am buying it because she'll close at the high of the day.

the bears have been wrong since the March lows. They have NO credibility left if you ask me.


rrman said...

We hit the top of the trading range guys ..

Anonymous said...

Forget trading ranges in this market.

Cheap money = assett bubbles.

No-one knows how high a market can go in bubble territory , but IMO 1200-1250 will be printed in Jan , and 1250-1320 in first quarter.


Anonymous said...

we're going to 1300 by this Friday!
If it Gaps and takes off Upwards, then 1300 is possible. It will be a parabolic spike caused by some really good news.


rrman said...

thats fine but we will have a bottom of the dip wed i agree buy wed/thurs for the big rally friday..

Linton said...


1300 by friday?? LOL.

you're too bullish even for the bulls

Anonymous said...


What is your target for the dip on Wednesday?



rrman said...

1125 or so.....although flash was hinting about the vacuum at 1100 might be good to watch but 1125 ish is my guess