Sunday, January 10, 2010

TOO bullish?

Some of you seem to be too bullish

Expect MONDAY to scare BULLS in first hour,
but day should end where it began and maybe better

Every bullish move this week should be met with minor selling

and every bearish move next 10 days should be met with buying

once again, the KEY TURN DATE this month is Jan 22nd
Anyone with TECHNICAL savvy should be concentrating on that turn and its technical value

Until then, please dont beat up on each other with your comments
which should be restricted to market updates, and NO personality cramming

More later


Anonymous said...

Monday will GapUp 10 points according to my system. But we'll see. If it goes down enough to scare bulls then it would continue down imo.

So Monday's are typically Strong up from Open. I don't expext this Monday to be any different. This is one of the few absolutes in this market and I'm banking on it.

Andre G.

Jay Strauss said...

My power index starts the day at 300 but ends the day at 500.

propensity index has a very sharp DIP, but it appears to occur at the close of the 9th, which does not correlate to what actually happened.

the propens index ALSO shows lower start on the 10th

ALSO got 126bars at open on the 258 bar cycle

Its possible they open higher to 9:45, then make a dive, and recover by days end

As I wrote,
the day to day action between

Astro reading does call for SUCCESSFUL biz day

more later

Anonymous said...

Thanks Jay for the update.

I'm expecting Up into OEX as usual. That's pretty much a given and then they sell off a bit Friday afternoon.

It's a pretty standard week for us Bulls and Bears just keep getting squeezed too. Love it.

My bank's financial advisors are really helpful and I strongly recommend that people consult with them about putting your 401k's to work right here.

The stock market is a matter of National Security. There's no way that our Leaders will let it correct much now after what happened last year.


Jay Strauss said...

thanks Alice
Govt can do whatever they want, but they cant stop the MARKET CYCLE.
IF they had done NOTHING last year from Spt to March, stocks STILL WOULD HAVE RECOVERED EXACTLY THE SAME.

Andre and others

What would be the BEST BEAR scenario given a price decline from Jan 22 to Jan29th
and what would be the least case scenario.

in other words
what are the parameter levels at which we could expect support to hold?

We will have aprox a 500 point rebound from March 9th to Jan 22.

I had posted an 18 month decline from Oct 10- 2007 to March 9th, 2009
Then 9 months + from Mar9 to Jan
22 = 55% equaling the 55% price gain- or damn close to it.

Any decline in such a short time slot should NOT represent anything but a normal setback within a RISING trend still due to reach its pinnacle on or about JULY 22nd which is equal to 34 FIBO months adding 18 + 9 + 7.

If we apply FIBO to the 500 pts gain, we could see losses of 8%-13%-21%-34% or any of those.
We had pivots hit on
July8th @ 887
Oct & Nov 2 at 1030

at spx 1070 - to 21% of the 500 pts gain or 100 pts
which only = an 8% loss from spx1165

Looking back at Mar 2003 to Oct 2007, corrective loses were limited to about 10% maximum

From a LOW expected on Jan 29, and or FEB2nd we can then expect a continuation of the UPTREND to JULY 22nd
HOW HIGH, you ask.
wow, you sure are needy[g]

Just a GUESS, but
62% = spx1230
78% = spx 1376

As just one example, 1938 rebounded 62%, I would venture to say that spx 1230 looks right
which means we can go from 1070 to 1230 from Jan 29 to July22nd

more later

Anonymous said...

XLF is a good indicator.

If the financials breaks its OCT 2009 high at 15.76 , the markets will keep making new highs for a couple of months.
Good earnings by the financials wil take spx to 1300.
The market is already anticipating this , and moving higher from a 2 month bullish flag formation .
This breakout at 1140 , will be the pullback target from 1300 later in the year