Friday, January 01, 2010

January 2010

Heres some MATH to Think about

Dow high = 14,280 -Oct 10,2007
Dow low =6440 - Mar 9- 2009

total loss = 7840 = 55%
FIBo on the button

Turn it around
55% of 7840 = 4312
6440 + 4312 = 10,752

Weve been creeping our way up the ladder and the difference between
10,580 and 10,750 is a quite narrow margin

throw it back in my face.

IF Jan 22 becomes the HIGH
from high to low took 18 months
from low to high would = 9 months

Any set back would NOW be limited to a fibo relationship allowing the above to occur within the established uptrend.

support have been strong at 10,200
since Nov 13 and it will probably hod again given the above scenario.

SO, we are POSSIBLY looking at my graph & C0ORDINATING the above data indicating a low on the 7th at the support area of 10,200 - 10,250, and a high on Jan 22 at 10,750

From there, I am expecting a sell off as previously mentioned to April 6th in increments.

April 6 = 13 months from March 6.
thats 288 days = 144 X 2
THE FIRST 144 ended on the OCT2nd

One more point using time
March 9 to Jan 22 = 222 days
222/288 = 78%

April 3rd & 5th ALSO has 2 MARS squares
1 to Venus and other to Merc



rrman said...

Thanks Jay lets make some money out of this.....What did you do for New Years ? Ive got the flu we just staying in....

indigo said...

Jim Curry's latest outlook:
Seems to fit with your Jan graph, Jay.

Jay Strauss said...

Easy stuff
dinner & movie
same for today
Im surprised that no one offered an old but insignificant adage
which says
never short a dull mkt

guess that one is BLOWN away , and I hope I never see it again, but im sure we will

Im getting some preliminary indications of a converging low on the open of Jan 6th

the 7th is 20 days from the Dec8th low

but the 6th is
39 hours from Dec28- Dec16- Dec 8
Skips over from 2pm to 10am to due the half day on 24th

And we have 156bars at 10am
with SUN 0 Saturn at 8am

Flash says its an Armstrong date
on 6th also, but I dont know how he gets that count

182 tr days was nov 23
182 / 21 = 8.67 = armstrong value

We'll take him at his word for it


Anonymous said...

hey, Is Y curry?


Linton said...

Indigo, you subscribe to jim curry?

indigo said...

Linton, I tried his service for a few weeks but I like Jim Curry's research more than that of his 2 other partners. He also pretty much says everything he needs to say in his monthly articles. He's useful for a bigger picture cyclical outlook, but very imprecise with his dates, so you have to take everything as just a guideline. Jay is much more accurate at pinpointing specific dates. :-) It's best to synthesise various tools (astro, EW, Hurst cycles, Gann, fibo etc) and trade accordingly. ;)

indigo said...

Incidentally, this may be of interest:
The message seems to be: "bulls beware in 2010". McHugh has also done extensive analysis showing that years ending with a "0" have almost always seen significant corrections. Let's see what 2010 brings!

Joseph said...

Hi Jay, hope all is well : )

I really cant see the GOVT allowing the market to correct 10% in JAN/Feb or Mar.... I think we move up slowly and I believe we should be buying the dips. The only way this market will correct is if some big, I mean big news comes in. Even that is a buying opportunity, look at the Dubi or Greece issue, market dip'd 1/2 days & buyers came in. Look at GMAC asking for 3bil, and they got it...... Were going up in my view. I followed the same view on Mar 20, 2009 when I got back in the markets in a big way, I even bought 120k of varrious GMAC Bonds early 2009 due to I just couldnt see the US Govt folding on them. Its the same deal now and I think we do move up till atleast 2nd QTR.
Things can change and if so I will re-shift but its hard for me to really go short like you folks.......

Take care & thank you for your input and blog

Anonymous said...

Here is a chart$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&i=p53192162588&a=168005396&r=249

I have the 1170 area around Option exp. in Jan near the Solar Eclipse. Eclipse can bring 3-5% correction so it works. And would take us down to that bottom trendline break of that would really send us down. For me that would be a great place to go long till April then I look for a 10 % correction. then bullish again. For sure a bumpy road ahead. Feb 2 brings the year of the Tiger He is determined to get the job done. but pitfalls will lay ahead. My opinion FWIW
Astro 8

Jay Strauss said...

heres some more interesting
market math

SPX moves in 40 pts segments and we can use that as a rule of thumb

for example

1575 - 666 = 909
880/40 = 22 divisions of 40 + 30
920 would have been 23 divisions

1130 - 666 = 464
11 X 40 = 440 + 24
next higher level = 480 to 1146
= 24 takes us to 1170

Whats notable also is the gain was 11x 40 which is half the loss
of 22 x 40

THIS WAS ALSO NOTED by the 55% ruler on the main page

NOW, what can 40 pts mean for Jan 6th and or 7th LOWS

1130 - 40 as a minimum = 1090
1090 - 40 takes it to 1050

1170 - 1050 = 120 pts
or 3 x 40

For better or worse


Linton said...


from the article you posted, I felt jim curry's outlook from it was very precise and accurate, it kinda agrees with jay's outlook as well.

High early next week.
then low 6-11 Jan timeframe
Then final rally till 22 Jan or around that period

Anonymous said...

MKT: those who R paying attn; in 1987 we had a turn 1/30/87 & crash low close was was 10/19/87; 8.6 months exactly; SIMON is alive & well
about 3 hours ago from web

I'll trust The Flash before I listen to morons like Joseph.


Anonymous said...

I have to get out of here. I have to set myself from vain tyrants and overlords. I live in a prison of invisible walls and lies. Prisons whose wardens are vain, corrupt, idolatrous and greedy. They're in love with their own false assumptions, misinterpretations, superstitions, misconceptions, egos and subjugate others to seek validation and fund their narcissistic fantasies of twisted love.

I've got to get free. The time for fear must end today.


Anonymous said...

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Jay Strauss said...

No One is going to send you a FREE
book without expecting some kind of payback later on

correct me if Im wrong

Jay Strauss said...

between NOW and the 7th, if they drop 7%, that does NOT change the overall trend, and a SNAP BACK rally of equal proportions resets
the trend to the Jan 22 high

I dont see any astro in October that matches 1987.
However, 8.6 months from NOV 23 = the END of JULY and start of August which does have potential for disaster- but more on that at another time- much later

for now we need to focus on this week

DIP and ROLL back up


Anonymous said...

A 7% dip is a lot in such a short span of time but I think you could be right. I think it will surprise many but the nimble will buy it up. It looks like the Dam broke on Friday and it's far from finished.

thanks jay


Anonymous said...

Mike Swanson's market map for 2010.


Anonymous said...

Just started looking at your blog....What is the basis of the "January 2010" chart? Seasonals?

Jay Strauss said...

AGREE 100%
Friday's DIVE will NOT STOP on a dime

BOTH MY propensity & power index readings show a LOWER open, rebound and lower close for Monday

Tuesday, im expecting a 300 pt dow loss to be follwed by a lower open on WED just as I posted

Mike, I registered for Mike Swanson - I take it thats not you??

Anon at 5:56pm

WELCOME to my corner of the world.

Please register as a follower if you want me to acknowledge and even come close to answering such a question

Registering also insures that you will not be mimicked by some one else, and its good for my ego.

there are many who have been here for a long time, and they understand what & where my outlook comes from

It takes a bit of looking around and reading some of the back pages and you will get the gist
of how & why.

Scientific resources combined with
Elliott, astro, cycles, and whatever else I can throw at it

Lets just day the input keeps me very busy

See the heading at the top of thee page and the indexes over on the right with levels

I dont always keep up with the data daily as its a lot to follow
but I ppost it when its important such as tomrrow to friday


rrman said...

Look at Helge's daily chart 2nd one down he seems to think Mon and tues are big up days....I don't see how it seems the trend has changed...