Tuesday, June 22, 2010

June 22nd EKG a little late -10am

update at 4pm
40/59 = 67.8%
CLOSED under 100 as suspected, and should open lower tomrrow

I dont think that GAP in the data means a GAP for the mkt, but we'll see later

CYCLES today

55%/13day at 11;59

Bar cycle pivots today
156bars at 10am
180b@ noon
204b@ 2pm
228b@ 4pm

If 4pm DOES close on a LOW, then I would expect
tomrrow AM to seek higher ground at the 26hr cycle at 10am

Today appears to be a wait & see type day
Maybe more sellers than buyers ??

ITS 10am right now and the higher open is FAILING into 10am
@156bars, and most likely continue lower today

I really dont think SPX1130
can be reached, but I dropped it out that for thought.
others have mentioned it and it is a fibo level.

Ideally I would like to see today at or under 1100,
but it might not occur till tomrrow AM - some are suggesting support at 1085

and the 13hr cycle at 10am might be the LOD

IF so, then any rebound would only recover the losses
and maybe add a little more to end a little positive.

Keep in mind that even tho Wed calls for $$ benefits,
the rally looks like it will come off a lower open




San said...

Dow jones and 50 DMA

Jay Strauss said...

Please give us a one line interpretation of your chart as you analyze it.

jufu said...

Hi Jay - thank you for the time and effort again today

I have a question about your EKG.

What does the x-axis represent? is it estimated to be 9:30 EST to 4:00EST, or is it the entire day?

Cheeeeers & gl trading

AS said...

Looks like the 13 day and noon cycles will be a high ...

Jay - I thought 13 day cycles were typically lows - is that not the case ?

Jay Strauss said...

Im not going to pick on you,

The PIVOTS I offer for this blog can be lod, but not always since they occur with a frequency.

They can also be pviots in a RISING TREND, thus can sometimes be quite muted.

As it apperas at 12;24, the NOOn drop off did occur, but we are not getting a TREND TODAY- trading range day with no clear direction, YET.

CYCLES are market orieneted, THUS can be influenced by ENERGY forces outsire the cycle itself.

ALL the cycles I mnetion are typically pivot LOWS, simply because they are more defined thatn cycle highs ,as we knwo from experience.

Hope this helps everyone understand morea bout cycles.
they can expand & contract due to other energy foreces occurring at or near those pivots.

USE the pivots as a GUIDE, not to ALWAYS be exect, but frequently are.

RickyBobby said...


She's going to drop late day. So I agree about morning low tomorrow. This will happen absolutely 100%

Jay Strauss said...

thanks RICKY
its alwasy good to get confirmation from another source

Has anyone else noticed how LOW their OWN PERSONAL energy levels are on UP DAYS verses DOWn days????

Yesterday my energy level was quite low, but today I played golf at 8am to 10am, and NOW at the NTC office since nothing else is doing much YET.

ENERGy levels seem INVERTED to MKT trends
the hhigher the mkt, the lower my personal energy.
Thus confirming a bear mkt.
IT was opposite from 1993 to 2000- whih is actually more normal in terms fo what we would expect.


benjoyce said...

from "Atilla" on

I'm told he has made great calls. But last two weeks he was wrong. oh well....

you can't see the charts here but the spx has made higher highs last few weeks

You can see that SPX made higher highs within a simple bear flag. Point C was greater than point B which is marginally higher than point A.

Now, during this time frame, there were four key sectors that did exactly the opposite, in other words, these four sectors kept making lower highs during the same time frame.

I can not sufficiently express how important this information is because if these sectors are what I think they are, they will be among the main drivers of this bear cycle which will be terminal.

These sectors are:

$RLX - Retail Index
$BKX - Bank Index
$XBD - Broker/Dealer Index
$HGX - Housing Index

The list looks familiar doesn't it? All members of the list except $RLX were the leadership sectors that led the financial markets into the oblivion in 2008/2009.

AS said...

Jay - no offence taken ... am learning about cycles from you ... hence the questions ..

"they can expand & contract due to other energy foreces occurring at or near those pivots."

So that means the amplitude is magnified by whether a strong -ive or +ive day - right ?

This is very helpful ...

San said...

JAY point taken

SP 500 Trading near important support zone.

Kc135a said...

For the SPY the 20 DMA is 109.35 and there is a pitchfork center line at 109.40.

Simple stuff but that is my short exit point unless price blows below hard. If so 106.70 is next.

Let's have some short term fun bears before we reload to the long side for July.

jufu said...

Jay, your mid-day updates are great.

I need to setup my blackberry to alert me on the updates :)

Jay Strauss said...

Selling at close today might NOT be the BEST trade for the money, especially if they OPEN WEAK as suggested by the daily reading, and confirmed by Rickybobby

However, If profitable & wish to close your shorts today, then might think about buying the OPEN DIP, and selling it by days end,thus shorting again at close


Jay Strauss said...

Activity index WORKING EXACTLY as the mkt

100 at 5am
166 at 8am
166 at 9am thus the higher open
166 all morning till
200 at 1pm
166 at 2pm
133 at 3pm
100 at 3;15pm

We can readily see the progression
and the steady decline since 10am

MONDAY"S HIGH was at 1131 at the 39 HOUR cycle at 10am, so NO NEED TO RE ENACT that level again


San said...

The False breakout of Dow Jones in hour chart.

xenne said...

since the high abwx finished
a in progress, almost finished
then b up (tomorrow)
then c down to complete Y - B wave of Minor [2]

that is my idea for now....


xenne said...

trying to combine ASTRO with EW


Kc135a said...


Great call for the day!!!!!

Alesund said...


You are amazing!!

Thank you so much for what you do.


AS said...

Jay - great call :)

Here is what I see ... we are in some kind of 3rd / C wave here ... which I don't think is complete ...

I see that we need one push lower to setup some divergence and complete the 3 of 3 wave .. then the rise may be slightly up for a wave 4 tomm followed by a wave 5 move to new lows - probably by end of week ...

This ties well with what jay is seeing ...

jufu said...

Anyone have any resources for me to learn more about astro / cycles?

Jay, thanks for the guidance on entries and exits for this week. I decided to hold till Friday as I am not always infront of a computer throughout the day. :(

Maybe one day...


rrman said...

We are at the beginning of a two week down move Monday and today were down days
tomorrow should be the last big rally to try to test the highs put in yesterday before the decline won't be able to get to the high probably 1100 on the S&P will be as
far up as it can go ....if so it will be a gift from God to short since we have 50 plus points on the S&P and 400 plus on the Dow to go down in the next two weeks....
faz was up almost 7 percent today ....most of that will come off tomorrow by noon and then
it will start back up as the market declines into the close.....faz is at 14.92 at the close
it should get back to 14.25 or so tomorrow ...I see no reason it won't be 18.00 by
next week.....

sirgiyan said...

FED will rise rates. Look at $IRX

stalion said...

FED will do NOTHING. There will NEVER be a fed move.

xenne said...

rrman, if you are right then we are in the beginning stages of a wave 3. anyway, i agree a bounce is coming today and should be shorted by all means... how much we drop from there we'll see