Saturday, June 26, 2010

Preliminary Power index

WE MUST consider that MAY25th @ 1041 MIGHT have been the LOW
of the move from April 26th@ 1220- ATTACH WHATEVER Elliott label you wish,
but from there, we seem to be in SLOW recovery mode-
Certainly NOT a BULL market, IMO, but NO CRASH IN SIGHT either.

THIS last week had ALL the earmarks & potential to head LOWER and it stopped at 1068
at 11am on a probable 26 hr cycle

thus lessening the potential for a lower low

Energy & daily readings seem to concur with the above, also.

SOO, My earlier THOUGHTS about a lower low DO NOT look probable,
and those calling for a crash next week appear caught in a bear trap.

We had some conflicting ideas about next week, which now seem a little clearer.

more later


JUFU said...

If you look around the Dec 18 / 07 timeframe, we have an almost identical correlation in the market before it heads down.

During those times, the market retouches the 200ma before it rockets down.

If that's the case, we should rise up to 109X-111X talking about entry points for shorts, we may want to scale in hard around that time. If this is the pattern, it will be wave 3 of 3 down....

that's just a pattern so take it with a grain of salt.

Thanks for the preview Jay.

JUFU said...

I have not looked at other indices - I am referring to SPX.

cementzak said...

okay. thanks Jay. we probably get a C wave up now to 1150 or so to finish Minor [2]. the real meltdown (Minor [3]) is expected in the 2nd part of July, especially around August 1st things will become EXTREMELY bearish, the long awaited MELTDOWN.... Bears must be patient, this decline has to go on for years, not months


Abdullah said...

makes sense to exit short positions late Monday if you are holding FAZ/TZA/etc...??? is that the game plan for next week.

p.s. RIG seems to be pushing to mid 60's by next week. GL

Abdullah said...

spx s1 = 1068 if it breaks then we test s2 = 1048 if that breaks then we see 1020-1025.

if we break above 1068 then 1100 within 2 weeks. load up on FAZ, TZA, and any short positions.

It will all depends on Monday close.

rrman said...

Helge seems to look like we are in a summer trading range which should be easy to trade he shows we need to go down into wed to touch the bottom channel then a quick run back up to the top of the channel in early July I agree no crash just normal summer trading ranges....look at a daily chart of tza and yo can see the trading range the best of any chart...

benjoyce said...

This is interesting. I was getting ready for a huge drop tues/wed.

Euro rallies (lower dollar) is correlated with S&P rallies. Will G-20 this weekend cause a Euro Rally (hell if I know, but I'll find out). For a "press release" They should just sit on a whoopi cushion next to a microphone.

Euro is expected to rally on some sites like daily fx (short term)
"Push to 1.26 Still Likely"....about 200pips up

German CPI Monday (German time)
Euro zone confidence Tues
German employment Wed
Euro cpi wed

Will big swings in overnight Euro ie 4am result in big moves in the overnight S&P?

rrman said...

I like this count but I think mondays up will happen overnight instead of during trading hours

rrman said...

theres been a lot of divergence lately on the euro S&P trade

Jay Strauss said...

NEW graph & thread

July 2nd might not end in such a positive fashion, but we'll let the EKG tell us more later