Wednesday, June 23, 2010

June 23rd EKG @ 8:30am & 4pm follow up

Since march 9th ---41/60 = now at 68%
Activity index showed us A LOW ENERGY DAY
FED spike- no big deal- I dont even know what was announced- and dont care.

Negative thinking does NOT seem to relate to a negative open as previously postulated.

10am new homes sales "SHOULD" correspond with a TURN @ the 13HR cycle
there is ALSO a moderate high energy hit at 11:05am

BUT 258bars at noon should set the day back into a low at that time

the afternoon should respond in a positive manner to the FED no matter what they report
as the day has high positive energy effects at 3pm & 6pm

Oil is moderately lower showing mild weakness , but the futures are mildly positive at 8:30am

more later


Jay Strauss said...

the BACKGROUND vertical lines
on the EKG mean NOTHING

San said...

Dow jones trading close to an important support zone

Anonymous said...

great stuff jay

I would have dumped my tza monday open if it weren't for you,as is,I just did at a VERY nice b-day present from yesterday!
now, since fri 2-4 SHOULD be a low,will this minor run (as rrman says a weak attempt maybe back to 1100-1110)should I enter tza before close as a high,or do you see a high early thursday per weekly graph?

you da man

Jay Strauss said...

Dont fall in love with your analyst

I do make mistakes
altho less often recently

Today so far is running PERFECTLY
on the EKG
Small up open
HIGH at 10am
THAT 13hour CYCLE@ 10am Sure has MERIT

11am energy boost, some what

coming near to noon @ 258bars

After they can go to sleep till 2;15pm

If I weren't holding my shorts
I would look to short today's close, especially if they dont get back to 1100
Either way, IMO< I would not wait for tomrrow, unless you can trade at midnite in futures tonight.

Jay Strauss said...

TZA, TYP, Energy and other related
3x bear direxions are
5 to 1
on July8th.

AS said...

Closed my TZA calls at a 20% profit - could have closed at 30% if I had followed Jay's low cycle :)

Will look to enter at EOD ...

sirgiyan said...

Dear Jay,
I have a modest proposal if you don't mind. It would be really convenient if you would make a post in the thread when you make a new post on the blog (something like "NEW POST" - so we would then jump to new thread and not stay in this discussion while there is a new one going on. Thanks!
Also I would propose that everyone keep an eye on TLT. If it breaks 100 and closes above - the most bearish predictions might come true

Jay Strauss said...

will do

Jay Strauss said...

TLT has the LOOK
of an UPSIDE break away


sirgiyan said...

Thank you, Sir. Well TLT has not break out yet. But when it will... Oh my God

Jay Strauss said...

is the BETA better on TZA calls
TNA puts??
and how will the 5/1 reverse split
on tza effect that beta


San said...

Russell 2000 hourly chart got support from a dragon fly doji

AS said...

Jay - I buy it based on price of options as I have smaller account. Howver TNA puts will give better movement as the moves will be larger ...

AS said...

Splits usually change the strike price ... accordingly for the options ... but not 100% sure how it will work if you have few options not the even number for the split ..

eg if you have 5 TZA 7 calls then it will be 1 TZA 35 call ... but if you have 2-3 only then you may be forced to sell ...

Abdullah said...

I have a feeling they might headfake us higher today and pull the rug tomorrow.

AS said...

Jay - still looking for rise into EOD - is the activity index showing that still ?

cementzak said...

i don't trust it, i remain short . have the feeling a meltdown move is coming and would be shitty to sit on the sidelines

Reza said...

I think sweeping done

San said...

Dow Jones came down from a triangle

Alesund said...


Can you tell me what you mean by "sweeping done"?


Anonymous said...

beware eur/usd huge rally....s+p should follow into the close

Kc135a said...

Re the Euro

It also looks very bullish to the 1.307 area. A little overbought short term but should start to rally hard in a day or two which would fit a rally in the majors for July.


JUFU said...

Jay, I don't think I can say thank you enough for your guidance!

When could we get a preview of next week/early July?

As discussed, I'm thinking about closing all my shorts near market close on Friday as you've suggested.

I'm curious if I should scale into any weekend positions long/short. Or alternatively, wait for the Bradley Turn spike and then re-short.

Thank you!

Reza said...

I meant take out the bear stops

Jay Strauss said...

You confused me a bit
on the 25th at or near close
and BUYING LONg at or near close
ALSO on the 25th
Monday the 28th should be quite a bullish show

JUFU said...

Sorry for the confusion.

Your answer is what I was looking for. Thanks!

How long do you think this bull move will last?

I'm debating on buying front month calls on SPY. There are some that expire June 30 and then the next expiry is July. If I hold it for just the weekend, potentially June 30s could be quite lucrative, but also very very risky.

Jay Strauss said...

The rally on Monday will be only good for Mnday
Tues & wed should offer some sloppy tradings and setbacks

THE HIGH should come on JULY 22/23,

AS said...

Bought Aug TZA 7 call @ 1.14 ... for holding into Fridya

AS said...

no longer doing july call due to theta decay ...

AS said...

JUFU - one piece of advice - always try to keep time on your options on your side ...

This is why I bought the aug 7 call vs the july 7 call on TZA ... i could buy only half of what I could have bought of july calls ... but still better ..

Trust me - have learned this the hard way ..

Jay Strauss said...

EKG tomrrow Am