SCORE ANOTHER winner for the EKG, now back to 68%Jay
Thanks for the GREAT discussions on yesterday's publication of the blogthats the kind of comments we need to make this the place to discover whats next
Today's EKG shows a dramatic drop off at the ned of the day, and or tomrrow morning
on the 13 hr cycle along with 30bars at 10am-
HOw dramatic will it really be? I guess it will depend on how high we get today.
I cant tell you HOW HIGH that will be, but MY GUESS
IS to SPX 1105 to MATCH the PREVIOUS HIGH
Today's ENERGY HIGH is on schedule for 1:20 pm till maybe 2pm, but 1:20 is the EXACT pivot
We know that highs ROLL more often rather then V or W pivot like lows.
Helge has a LOW on the 14th - then RALLY into the 21st as his chart shows,
BUT we also know that it can VARY some, so DONT USE those dates as PRECISE time pivots
The POWER index And NOW the EKG both show a DROP off after a high TODAY
combining - energy high, cycles, bars, waves, we see they do concur with a high today,& drop off
later into tomrrow AM
Question becomes now, HOW to play the moves
I was expecting 204 bars to bring in an open low, but FUTURES are PUSHING up 10spx pts
over 1100 at open and might push the index to 1110
area before pivoting at 1;20pm, then heading lower
Since I cannot jump into the open at a lower value,
I must now consider SHORTING the 1:20pm high
and prepare to cover at 10am tomrrow
As with Helge, the POWER index ALSO shows potential to SURGE after the 14th---
___________
above 1105, IMO, on Tues- Wed & thsday JUNE17th AM @ 26 HOURS at 10am
SOO< once this RISE and FALL is out of the way by tomrrow at 10am it should become
a RISE only, or rise mostly to a HIGH on the 17th at 10am
PLease trade according to your own analysis, and
PLEASE do make comments that ADD to the discussion just as we have seen ALL this month,
and more especially yesterday
GREAT WORK- THANK You
MORE LATER
JAY
32 comments:
Posted by a professional trader:
ES remains inside the trading range between 1032.50 and 1103.50 that was set up by the price low on May 25th and the structural pivot high set on June 4th.
The most recent push has crossed the short-term primary trend line (currently at 1088.50) and the multitrend message from Stops and Targets now says the following about the macro trend picture…
▲ E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Option [Sep 10] is rated Bull 8, indicating a sharp, short-term rally in the context of an intermediate bull market pullback. This multitrend configuration can create a whipsaw zone between intermediate resistance and short-term support as uncertainty about the continued viability of the intermediate downtrend awaits resolution. A move above intermediate resistance at 1,118.25 would signal an end to the intermediate pullback and resumption of the bull market, whereas a decline below short-term support at 1,088.50 would resume the bull market pullback with an downside target of 1,078.25, which is long-term support.
…that S&T analysis agrees completely with my assessment of the Big Picture as being at least an IT bear market pullback to LT primary trend support—but that is awaiting resolution of the current trading range.
The prize in play is the 1103.50 level. That is not at least a short-term structural pivot and as explained before, it can represent the latest lower high in a continuing IT bear market–or, if exceeded, it becomes at the very least an excellent stop sweep reversal candidate or a momentum breakout trigger.
If the bulls can continue rallying, then 1103.50 becomes a breakout level where many professional bear stops are located. Exceeding that line forces bears with good technical discipline to stop out of existing positions to take final partial profits—or at the least partial profits from trades initiated from higher levels for those with longer trade horizons.
As I mentioned recently, S&T gave the cover partials signal at 1047 across three timeframes and it was an excellent signal preceding the recent rally.
This rally is a natural and expected thing to occur in either a bounce before resumption of the downtrend—or on a bottoming move in an IT pullback to LT trend support. Technically-speaking, all of this is meaningless from a macro trending perspective until the current range is broken and held. This is range-trading territory, and the VST intra-range trading action has been tremendous, as can be seen by the red and green arrows on the June contract charts posted previously.
ES 1103.50 looks to be in play here and so the trick (in my opinion) is going to be to use that number as the next bull/bear line if/when price gets there. A push up and through is definitely going to generate volume. That volume will come from a combined buying pressure of bears covering and momentum bulls buying. That is an ideal environment to potentially unload shares accumulated near the recent lows, if the trend is to reverse. If that happens, the we would likely see a push up and through, followed by weakness and a fall back below that 1103.50 number. That would be the place (in my opinion) to focus on establishing a new position—long above/short below that line.
I have been focusing on very short term trading setups in my posts to show how pressure is used continually by professionals to force people to the other sides of their trades. That is the game in the markets…it always has been and likely always will be. Crossing 1103.50 will certainly bring pressure on some folks—but it is just a line and a spot to give it up (if one is bearish) with the thought of reestablishing a new bearish position only if price were to retreat back below that line.
S&T points out in their multitrend rating text that this particular configuration often results in a whipsaw zone between intermediate resistance and short-term support and that is good information to have. To me, the first possible official end to the downtrend would be marked by a move and hold above that very important structural pivot at 1103.50.
Price has already broken through two major resistance trendlines that correspond very closely to the LT and ST primary trend lines. Those trendline breakouts occurred just before the S&T primary trendline cross and so they have worked pretty well as precursors to a breakout. There is one more major trendline above that is aligning fairly well with the S&T intermediate primary trend line and so that offers confirmation to me from two completely different systems to confirm what I see and expect.
The trading range is critical and we are closer here to 1103.50 than to 1036.50, so odds favor a test of the former before the latter—but ultimately, this market cannot trend again until one side or the other of this trading range is exceeded.
Next lines of interest are the red trendline resistance presently at about 1099 and then, of course the big number above at 1103.50.
Reza;
If you could EDIT such large comments, it would make it easier to read thru it.
Jay
THX,Reza
Abdullah
thanks for that Astro view
Shows that modern science is paying attention to our universe and its components as we traverse the sun with our neighbors
Jay
Dow jones broke out of the flag on friday and will find tough to cross 10320-10330
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/06/dow-jones-flying-high-from-flag.html
San
it seems rather OBVIOUS to stop at 1100spx.
So, I think they might get above that later at the 1:20pm TIME pivot
before settling back under 1100
My lower open appears destined for tomrrow by 10am
Jay
11:10am got to 1106
11;30 = 228bars should settle back bit to 1103
Europe closed with moderate gains
Jay
Thanks Reza
Dow jones the resistance seems to be strong
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/06/dow-jones-resistance-seems-to-be-strong.html
WARNING if Your planning to short at 1:20pm
there is an outside chance that
The CLOSE might actually end at the HOD
the POWER index does have SOME indication that today might close
on a high
then OPEN strongly lower
I think I would rather prefer to BUY the 10am LOW tomrrow, rather than short today's close
Jay
Oh Hell
If 1:20 finds the mkt at or near today's highs, I will probably give in to my urge to short
I hate myself-gg
Jay
well its 1:20 and they are not
jumping back to 11:15 am highs
So my game plan is not working
for this time pivot
I have to leave the office at 2pm,
thus that will be my last chance to get short today
The saner part of me says to wait out tomrrows open low at 10am to BUY long
WHY?
because the power index zooms way up from 350 to 650 over next 3 days
HOPE IM NOT DRIVING all of you as crazy as I am to to me
Jay
LOL Jay keep em coming!
Helge's down wave finally showed up LATE...
Some nice sell signals here. Probably a little strenghth before going down hard.
thanks rrman
Anyone paying attention to WC2010
If it is that down wave that should have happened last night it is projected for 11 hours or so down
Jay - love your updates :) - keep them coming ...
Rman - based on this "Late wave" when should the low be ?
8 or 9 pm central looks like
SP 500 indicators showing negative patterns
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/06/sp-500-indicators-showing-negative.html
Good call.
Nice call Jay.
Just curious, with your power index and ekg.
How often does it fluctuate? Like the EKG, if you looked at it now for tomorrow vs your typical post in teh morning tomorrow, will there be major differences?
I'm just shocked at the shape of the EKG. If I wanted to learn more about these energy readings, do you have any recommended websites/books?
TY for all the time and effort you put into your posts and comments.
Dow jones end of day analysis
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/06/dow-jones-end-of-day-analysis_15.html
So, I've got 1000 shares of DIA at 103.04 that's now 102.74. I hate being under water. But I'm simply betting on them trying to keep the green momo alive.
I added more of RIG. Still holding FAZ/PTEN.
Abdullah they will run it up overnight to try for the 200 ma again
should retest the highs of today right after open then down the rest of day should have 3 more trys to bang away at that 200 day ma but they will fail will be 3 ops to swing by shorting above 1090
tommorrow might be the last day to get out of longs as it looks like the other two attempts will be in afterhours so futures would be the only way to play it
just went long /6e looks like we got our double bottom helge shows tonight now up into the open
rrman - if we close at 10225 then will see 10500 as top, maybe ~10800.
Jay - has your power index changed - since the last one showed high tomm and slight rollover 16-17 ... but today you mentioned that it shows up for next 3 days - pls could you update ?
Jay, you are a genius!!
I am still in the watching mode and haven`t made any trades so far based on your work. I am stunned by your score.
No, your are not driving us CRAZY. It shows there is a man behind and not a computer. (Did you short?)
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