As we can plainly see the Second chart was obviously more in tune with todays marketbut I will NOT count this one as a positive , thus we now are back to 68.75% accuracy
NOTE of IMPORTANCE
the ACTIVITY index AFTER HOURS jumped up to 466, indicating HIGH energy.
it was languishing ALL day at the 200 to 266 level.
ARMS INDEX was a huge 5.97, pushing the 5 day to a BUY @ 2526
& 5 day trin to a buy at 1263 with 10day up to 2092
Those values on June21st SELL were
97.6 - 488 & 1072 respectively
You can see huge differences which generally signal a
short term buy such as the one on June4th
& we watched the spx run from 1064 to 1120 in 7days.
3:35pm UPDATEThe LAST LEG DOWN, IMO, was supposed to happen AFTER close today,
but its occurring right now at 3;30, dow at 9853
The PREMISE of the 39hr cycle low at 10;30 @ 9855SHOULD
mean that would be the lowest point of the day
theres 30 minutes to go, and 3;30 made a lower low at 9838
That might qualify for 90 bars due at 3pm
we''ll see what the close brings in a few minutes
Just as I suggested and The EKG showed late yesterday,the LATE SELL off continues into this AM
Consumer confidence at 10am & Investor confidence also
Just as the POWER index revealed, we are on schedule for a LOW at the 10am/ 39HOUR cycle
and a recovery making a high probably after 3;30
Yesterday's PC ratios were OVERWHELMINGLY BEARISH
Except the Jaywiz index at .70, moderately bullish
________________________________________
FOR THOSE JUST TUNING in over here
I posted cycles on the main page
TODAY
39HOUR cycle at 10am combined with 30bars converge today at 10am
BOTH indicate a PIVOT LOW
ALSO
Review the WEEK in advance on the POWER INDEX & MORE page to get up to date.
more later
Jay
58 comments:
Congrats Jay nice call. Your getting scary. haha
I still think my warning should hold or get penetrated a bit. Price likes to move back to the apex of a lot of triangles that form
astro8
not sure what you mean
Jay
out of /6e short at will short the pop
Holding on to long hurt...ugh
been watching this chart. we are breaking that warning line but can penatrate a bit
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p12742850540&a=155363609&r=7135
Helge's chart 5 is where we are going
http://www.cyclelt.com/INT.htm
We went into the gap area for IWM so expecting move to 62 for gap fill ...
Rman - still holding TZA ,,, or have you closed all shorts ? What time are you expecting to enter again ?
rrman can you interpret helge's chart
Where we are going.
I'm lost
im still holding tza will get out in prehours our right at open tomorrow whichever is the quickest that will be the short term bottom 8am ish central i think
Buzz up! 0
Print
Anne D'Innocenzio, AP Retail Writer, On Tuesday June 29, 2010, 10:08 am
NEW YORK (AP) -- Americans, worried about jobs and the sluggish economic recovery, had another relapse in confidence, causing a widely watched barometer to tumble in June.
The Conference Board, a private research group based in New York, said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index dropped almost 10 points to 52.9, down from the revised 62.7 in May. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had been expecting the reading to dip slightly to 62.8
ben we pop at close up into 9pm central will be a nice pop short it hard! then down hard into 8-830 am Wed..,., cover everything then!
I will go long hard....
we will go up hard into July 6 or 7th
there will be some whipsaws but will hold tna/faz until that high helge shows july 5 market closed...
Im sticking with MY TIMING MODEL
WE GOT a LOW right at 10am on the COnsumer Confidence report
Now backing off some at 10:18
there not ready yet to rebound
give it a couple hours to flop around at this level near 9900
and spx 1050
60bars next at 12;30
and energy effect at noon
sold all shorts b4 10am
waiting to buy some longs
Jay
i agree Jay i just bough a small long /6e euro position
rebound will start 10:28 instead of 10:00
Jay - is the activity index showing move up coming ?
there will be a rebound at some point - the question from what level will it start... who knows where we stop if 1040 support breaks
i'm showing a noon central high Jay your chart shows 230 central high of the pop?
Activity index is HOLDING steady at
the 200 level
Was at
133 at 7am
266 @ 8
now 200 @ 10:45am
From this point we can expect the rebound to hit a HIGH at 10am on JULy 1st , the NEXT 13 hour cycle
as per the POWER INDEX, then drop off for a moderate sell off on July 2nd
HOW HIGH IS HIGH??
That will have to wait to make sure we dont take out 1040 today which I dont expect it to do.
LOW today was 1042, SO we are now looking for support at this level
Jay
Closed my TZA call for about 27% ... will reenter on a bounce ...
my concern is that Rman sees the low at 8.30 ... so not sure if we will get a chance to get our when mkt opens at a lower price....
Rman - will welcome your thoughts ....
Jay - are you also seeing weakness into tomorrow am .... ? Your daily read suggest that there may be issues ...
AS i think there should be no problem getting out around 8am central in premarket but if not 830 central should still be ok
AS
Yes there are issues tomrrow
However, as yuo LOOK at the POWER INDEX, we DO SEE a HIGh today and or TOMRROW AM, possibly at open to 10am
The 13day cycle is at 11am, thus we should see a pivot there, but it has also signaled weakness
Just follow the bouncing power index
It really holds the story this week
Jay
GO over to
LWAVERIDER
shows a breakDOWn from the ABCDE triangle TODAY is the THRUST LOW
IMO< bottom of wave 1
Wave 2 should start after retest tomrrow, and short term high on July 7th and or 8th as per the JULY energy graph
Please USE the DATA I presented for comparisons & to keep our heads on track
Jay
jay
if you see 1040 on spx break down will you go short? sell longs?
from red dragon leo site someone writes:
Nenner Cycles show a drop to 900 after this break.
Ben
breaking 1040 doesnt seem to be in the cars today as per ALL my publishing data
We got the LOW today AS EXPECTED
at 10 to 10:30
LOOK at the ROAD MAP as provided
If we do break 1040, I will most likely hold long for the rebound later next
week
note
Since we GOT what I projected, why would I look for anything different
Jay
spx 925 is a level that has been projected by some, and I agree with that, BUt the timing for such looks GOOD FOR LATE JULY
SEE the JULY Energy graph
Jay
I mentioned that yest that we seemed to be in some kind of wave 3 of C in the close ... my opinion is that we completed the wave 3 of C with the low this am ... now we are in wave 4 .... then should see wave 5 down start and possibly into tomm morning ....
Hence Helge scenario is possible but we still need to see a bounce equal to what we have got from the low ...
rrman - are you saying you are holding into FAZ till 5 July? what is your target for FAZ? 17-18 possible by tommorow??? But how about 5 July what do you see the price trading at?
ok out of long /6e will go short shortly
Think monthly closing target on S&P is 1050
ok short /6e 1.2197 will hold until 2pm central
rrman,
What is "6e" that you're trading???
TIA
Dow Jones week chart with a broken rising wedge
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/06/dow-jones-weekly-chart.html
EURO/USD (GLOBEX: 6E)
EUR/USD Futures
its similar to /es but its the euro 4050 dollars per contract lots of cheap leverage and it moves much better than /es
symbol is /6e
thank you rrman.
trading on C was halted , circuit breakers halted trading may of been bad tick.
POSITIVE DIVERGENCE Shown in Dow futures chart with moving average oscilator
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/06/positive-divergence-in-moving-average.html
If they DONT close well off the lows today, then TOMRROW could be a huge gap UP at open
Jay
jay did you EKG today invert?
long /6e we should rally into the evening now pretty big 6 or 7 pm then down all night
astro8
It was a judgment call
I published an UPDATE at 3;30
BUT it wont COUNT for the score
and sets me back one to
68.75% daily accuracy
Thats an example of NOT being able to PIN POINT the close
I based the close today on the power index which is showing a BIG GAP UP, which NOW looks like it should be tomrrow, rather than today
They are improving some after that 3;30 dip to a lower low at
1037.50
IT does NOT change what the power index shows about the next 2 days
JULY 1st recovery high at 10am
Jay
Left 50% profits on the table by closing the position too early near the 10.30 pivot ... made 27% - could have made 65% ..
Well ... will now wait for rman's gap down tomm to go long ...
What all are people watching to go long / short ?
sold 1/2 my position in FAZ.
added more to RIG.
new position VISN
faz 16.62 up 10.5 percent today tza 7.91 up 11.3 percent today we are near the bottom of this move get out of faz and tza at 0800 0830 tomorrow!!! then go long fas and tna
I added some DATA on the MAIN page under the SPX chart for today
BUy signals seem to have been generated on the INTERNALS
Power index shows GAP UP OPEN
And high on 1st at 10am= 13 hrs
SO far at 7:30pm, futures are not responding higher, but not crashing either
Jay
AS
hindsight is always perfect
I did the SAME thing
ASK my self
Would I have waited till 3;30 to close positions
I doubt it
Jay
out of longs went short /6e 1.2207
I would have waited rrman...
hammer at 8am on 60 min chart and 8pm tells me it tests it's 50 period ema @ 122.45 or slightly higher
I meant 10 am and 8 pm..
eur/usd dead cat bounce here
Jay - that is true ... I have a tiny < 1K account, so play 1-2 calls / puts so comm eat a lot of my profits unless I play it right ...
Still 27% profit is better than BE or loss ... focus on the small steps ....
thx francois i may take some pain but i am going by Helge and he says timewise we go down ....but the fact the up wave was delayed a few hours may set this downwave back a few however....the trend is down so i am going to take the benefit of the doubt...
francois thanks for the heads up i got out looking at the chart i see the wave was delayed 4.5 hrs so adding that to 730 when it started means the 130 will be the top so ill wait and short the top hopefully at your 1.2245 level :-)
Nice calls anyways.......Jay are you saying a lower low on Wednesday ?
rrman no plunge over night was this plunge delayed too. I remember you said cover shorts and go long 8-8:30 central time ??
good question Ben either this spike was the spike that helge showed early in the evening and it will come off completely with more or this is the upwave that he had scheduled for 830 am come early in which case we continue up from here all day with a down wave at close that will retrace most of this spike....
let assume minor [3] started at the 1131 high - 1 of [3] in progress, yesterday in the middle of that wave - today wave 4 dead cat bounce. then back down to a new low. and from there a bigger bounce will take place probably somewhere next week. when that bounce is finished (a backtest of the broken channel @1070 or so) the real meltdown can start
GO to new thread
Jay
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