Whats Next & WHY

It has been noted by some that as of OCT 30th
ENERGY effecting human behavior may have hit a brick wall

It would not be surprising to be unable to make any progress beyond this point
OBSTACLES are significant

As we have already seen, national security has been threatened once again
even if only involving a minority group,
it shows as there are HUGE HOLES in the hierarchy

This week we have a convergence of HARD energy
where there seems to be a great deal of DESTABILIZATION

Responsibilities & accountability clash with rebellious behavior as well as
retribution for misguided FINANCES this year.

Panics can be the outcome of the above energy, but take heart, it may only last a few days

Getting back to that Elliott chart, IF we are TRULY at the edge of a wave 2
contracting triangle, the aftermath can be as described above for the markets

Looking back at 2008 we can make note of a 500 tr days cycle hit on Oct 29th from the NOv4th high of 9625, and the mkt fell to 7552 on Nov 20th

Ian pointed out many cycle convergences THIS WEEK- link to his blog on my main page on the right

Jay

Contracting Horizontal Triangle

The ABOVE triangle, IF FINISHED ,
denotes a PLUNGE to the widest part where it began,
which in this case would be about spx 1100.

Jay

CHECK OUT THE LINK --
IAN"S BLOG
EXPLOSION or IMPLOSION next week

Compare wave to EKG today

OK once again
Jay
chart above FROM ELWAVE RIDER
IT WOULD APPEAR that IF we close at or near 1190 today,
which is somewhat indicated by the EKG, that MIGHT JUST complete wave"c"-2
OPENING the DOOR for wave 3 DOWN without warning

Fascinating that the POWER GRAPH seems to be showing Monday as a PLUNGE

And technical trader KNOWS the MKT iS VULNERABLE at this point, no matter
what the FED does

BILL MERIDIAN says the MKT runs into a BRICK WALL this weekend, and that
seems to fit a TREND CHANGE or at least that ALLUSIVE PLUNGE thru the 4th
Jay

NOT much happening today

Pos energy at
10;30 am -- so far on track, and its now 11am
3;49 pm

55%/13 day cycle at noon might be a low
60bars at 1pm

reading calls for a pleasurable day

I FIND IT VERY HARD TO SEE HOW A PLUNGE IS AHEAD OF US
LAST CHANCE for near term in up to NOV 4th
AFTER which, the mkt should have legs to run higher into Nov 19th to 21st

Energy patterns do NOT show support for such a plunge
Bradley PATTERN does NOT show such such a plunge

ON the OTHER hand, from what we KNOW about markets VIA charts, graphs, cycles, Elliott
tech data, we see WEAKNESS inherent in our present price level

IS the mkt building DOUBT within a very narrow price range, or will it open up , even if briefly for 2 or 3 days thru the 4th??

What will it take NEWS, or fundamentals, to get SELLERS into the trade??
Disappointment over QE2???

Wed's read does call for Confusion
Thsday AM calls for EARLY upsets, but a positive afternoon

Neg energy did pull the mkt lower on the 28th, but NO WHERE near as low as
we might have thought given the wave, energy, charts, etc

SO where does that leave us

SIMPLE- WE WONDER WHATS NEXT- ME TOO

Jay

Oct 28th EKG

Contrary to what I thought yesterday about this AM, we seem to have an UP open
setup and confirmed by the futures, but it does appear short lived, at least for the morning.

A Later recovery might or might not make a higher high than yesterday
or this morning but we see the trend is UP after that 11am low ive been
mentioning and might just peak at 2pm

THE POWER Graph shows a HIGH on NOV 1st with a downdraft into the morning of the 4th- JUST why that would happen on a fundamental reason might involve the FED, but
the power graph knows nothing about such matters

Jay

EKG w after hours display for comparison

This is the EKG with a continuation for AFTER HOURS,
or what looks like it might have been after hours, and we know NOW that it
was during the day for a rebound after 1pm @ 156bar pivot, and the 3pm pivot at 180 bars only accentuated the move up.

The open is easier to judge as I wait for 8:30 to see any reaction to any data
but the close is not that way. I have to JUDGE when to cut off the graph since the data is on a CONTINUOUS feed which makes the close much more difficult to judge.
Jay



13hours at 10am along with 120 bar cycle pivot
or
126bars at 10:30 along with some mild neg energy

So far the TECH, WAVE , CYCLE & energy are in sync
scroll down to view the previous pages showing the
McClellan graph, DOLLAR graph, EDT graph, and more

Yesterday's close rebounded off the 2pm pivot
today we have 180 bars at 3pm, so we will have to see
if any rebound repeats off that pivot.

Jay

FROM ELWAVE Rider

MATCHING these charts with MY OUTLOOK
makes a Very STRONG CASE
for the BEAR to attack tomorrow

The READING calls for CHAOS
Morning complications & Disruptions

Jay

UPDATE for OCT 26th

Not bad, just missed a small rise from the 2pm low which was mentioned in comments
as a 90 bar cycle pivot, and it lead to a 3:30 high, a little after the mentioned
3pm possible high, so over all, not perfect, but NOT bad either.
Jay
Money talks get poor reception today

problems abound

SPX Futures indicate a lower open - off 5.80

Neg energy at noon
pos energy at 3pm
neg energy after hours

Activity index weak at 200 level all night
Flux a little quiet today
90bars at 2pm

Breaking support today would setup tomrrow's CALL FOR CHAOS

Jay

Update- EDT

Chart from ELWAVE rider

shows and explains very clearly what we've been watching unfold since
October 4th
it indicates an EXHAUSTION of the uptrend, complete with an overlap of wave 2, and an overthrow of wave 5 as of this morning at open

the AFTER effect can extend a sell off for many months
OR
HIT immediately erasing all of the previous gains within a brief time period
and fall back to the point where it began.

Jay

70% Accuracry since March 24th

Another very successful EKG
STill holding 70% , but I dont expect it to get any better than that
even the days that dont make it are usually some what close to actual,
but we have seen some fail miserably- those days are now far & few between

Jay
Nothing dangerous about this chart today as it shows.
There is a chance the close could be accelerated lower.
Tomorrow's EKG starts lower right from the open.

as previously indicated a HIGHER open to touch 1189

Today is a Bradley turn date

258bars (21hrs) at 1pm

Jay

McClellan NEAR ZERO with SPX at recovery HIGHS

Compare the above Graph Oct 22nd to APRIL 26th, 2010
the McCLellan Osc is AT the ZERO LINE, while STOCKS are at
recovery HIGHS- what does that say about the sustainability
of this market- IT SAYS EXTREME CAUTION is warranted

Jay
Compare the ABOVE Current level and position to
OCTOBER 2008, just before the big declines

Jay

DOLLAR UP

Certainly looks like it wants to rally

Jay

Daily Readings

Monday -Oct25th
expect many problems
money talks dont go well
unwelcome events

Tuesday -26th
Disruptions
prefer solitude
solve some problems today
unrealistic expectations

Wed
Plans disintegrate
morning complications
Disruptions & chaos

Thsday
IN like a LION
OUT like a LAMB

Fri
Pleasant & Fun day

more later
Jay

Oct 22 EKG & AM comments

NOt bad
NO IMPROVEMENT - sure was none
Jay
Even tho the graph shows a late rally higher, it doesn't not have to occur that way, just as yesterday did recover off the 2pm low, but did not make higher highs.

The NUMBER of ASTUTE market analysts are NOW calling for an immediate TOP, and drop

Evidence is gaining sending warnings to certain groups of elite traders

Is it real or memorex? [g]

FULL moon tonight might STILL be holding this baby in tack

Elections more in focus than stocks?

Wave has made a series of 3's since Oct 12th, and yet it is still in a possible expanding wedge
w one more high, otherwise it would be plunging in the retrace wave, and its NOT happening

more later
Jay

Oct 21st EKG- BULL GRIP

DAMN good for sure
Jay

Is the BULL GRIP slipping ??

Are bears yelling WOLF, once too often, or is this the REAL thing when the BEARS are ready to throw in the towel--- I CANT TAKE IT ANY MORE !!
which works at both end of the spectrum- { bulls at bottoms & bears at tops}
CONTRARY thought- mkt forces you into it.

Futures waning off the earlier AM highs at 9am

Power data shows up, dn, up

Neg energy at 11:11am
90bars at noon
126b @ 3pm

One of my sources indicates the 28th as the more important pivot low
as it also showed oct4th as the pivot low for early Oct.

That rally shown on the EKG after NOON, does not have to be a higher one

charts on the dollar indicating the LOW has been hit which would have been
@ 76.20 on the 15th

One source indicates an ODD lot sell signal was triggered Monday

ROLLING TOP ?
GOLD high last week
Dollar low last week
Stocks high this week

more later
Jay

Oct 20th EKG & AM commentary & closing

NOT quite as good as yesterday, but still showed the trend for the day
Jay
Yesterday's EKG was as good a gold.
will today be a repeat performance?

Today we have a convergence at 11am of the bar cycles{ 21hrs} & 13 day pivots
as shown above

It should lead to an afternoon rebound till 3:30pm
as shown above

Power data indicates a good start but retreating the rest of the day which is somewhat contrary to the EKG but not entirely

CNBC commentator telling the public that stocks are CHEAP, of course in relative terms, but we ALL know the stock market stretches evaluations in both directions.

Just as they got over bot for many months in 2007, they can get oversold for many months
also, and look cheap. Where was his recommendations on March 9th, 2009 ??
Anyway.
IMO there were many holes in his argument, but he is obviously attempting to attract buyers.
Its the OLD argument that IF you buy and hold for a long enuf time, your values will increase.
BUT then again, stock market has not made sufficient gains since year 2000
10 years of apathy.

SO<>

Watch what happens in the politico arena IF we get a substantial decline in the next 10days
They, whoever they is, will be screaming- MR PRESIDENT !!- DO MORE TO HELP
what are you waiting for? another crash ??

more later
Jay

October 19th EKG & AM comments

NOW THAT'S more LIKE the EKG we've all come to LOVE
Sometimes, there is a ROLL OVER at the EOD into the next morning
and it looks like yesterday's EKG may have reflected that

Jay


Tuesday. today is scheduled to sell off as previously mentioned

Was yesterday an 5th wave EDT ?

Yesterday's outlook as published-- HOLD off & Dont risk $$

Today outlook= Unexpected disruptions & expenses
today is a PHI cluster date according to one subscriber- Lucas series

hmm -70% chance of rain today- fwiw ??

Activity index yesterday AM low was 66, mid day high 233, and ended at 100
Today was at 266 at 6am, at 9am is now dropping lower to 133

FLUX very active last week was QUIET yesterday, but TODAY is highly active again

Ok, I know what your thinking
morning sell off and then back to biz
B of A earns improving losses, so we should NOW buy it- hmm
where were you when it was trading at $4. Dont touch it- hah

180 day lo to lo -- Feb8
360 day high to lo -- 9/3/08
convergence of cycles on Friday

Full moon Friday late day indicates finding a balance & financial improvement
13 day cycle segment at 10:20
Neg energy at 11:35
156 bars at 11am

Jay

Power Graph, Week of Oct 22nd

Lets see if the REVAMPED data graph can perform
better than 50% on a weekly basis

Jay

October 18th EKG

TODAY was a TOTAL BUST - NOTHING even CLOSE
STILL HOLDING 70% accuracy, but today was NO help
Jay
Today calls for being practical
dont take risks with $

A FOG of UNCERTAINTY rolls in over wall st now

Bars cycle pivots
90 @ 10am
126 @ 1pm
156 @ 3:30

Power data graph shows strong down day for TOMRROW

Looks like Friday's selective selling my expand to other sectors

Jay

BEAR Market- WHEN ?

HAS any read this report from EXCEPTIONAL BEAR

www.exceptional-bear.com

IMO, His assumptions maybe correct, but his timing may be wrong

He attributes a crash to FED intervention FAILURE of QE2

Market doesn't care about FED intervention unless its in response to markets such as in 2009, BUT it is my assumption the market would have recovered on its own with or without the FED

I was wondering WHY I have NOV 4th as a Bradley date, IMPORTANT BOTTOM & IMPORTANT TURN HIGHER thru Late Nov and continuing till late Jan, 2011
before repeating the decline of March 2009.

THE TURN occurs the NEXT day after NOV 3rd and supposed FED announce of QE2 - so the initial reaction, IMO, WILL be viewed as INADEQUATE

At this point in time, some will say a CRASH is possible NOV 3rd or 4th, but NOV is targeted for a MARKET rally.

HIGH anticipations and VERY HIGH POSITIVE Sentiment can DISSOLVE in seconds during the next few days leading to the NOV 4th bottom

Jay

october - Helge & Lavoie

BOTH charts SEEM To be pointing DIRECTLY at Oct 27-28 as ALSO reflected by
Mahendra's projection for the same date

the next question is when does it start,
since we seem to have a handle on when it ends.

altho Nov 4th potential for secondary pivot is not shown.

Its possible we dont see anything serious until Oct 21st to 28th
or it may have already started

Regardless of Googles meteoric rise today, IF it wasnt up as much the NASDQ would NOT be up 22 pts at 2pm, and even at that, the Dow & spx are showing true colors

Looking for a trading pattern? check out the EKG daily
wish I could get the power graph to perform better,
but its from a very different source

Lavoie's graph shows high may have hit on WED, and the SPX did hit 1184.27 @ 2:15pm

Helge's graphs are harder to pinpoint and the top may have already occurred
but which looks like the 9th, which matches Spiral Cal date of the 10th.

ENERGY totally CHANGES after this WEEKEND
NEGATIVE ENERGY forces are in much great abundance
with very little positive influence interspersed thru Oct 28th.

Just what that means in terms of a price erosion is only a guess
some say maybe 5% & others indicate as much as 25%

Jay

EKG October 15th & 4pm comparison

REALLY DARN GOOD
STILL HOLDING 70% average accuracy over the past 6 months
inception was March 24th, 2010
Jay
Early power boost

Fed spoke at 8:30am

78.6% /13 day at 12;25pm

end of day might not retreat as ekg shows

Jay

EKG October 14th & closing update

GOT THAT ONE NEARLY EXACT
Still holding at 70% daily accuracy since March 24th inception
Jay
Running a little late today- its 9:45am

Neg energy at 1:57pm
228bars @ 1pm
258bars @ 3;30pm

Uncertain morning
look for bargains mid day

Tomrrow am calls for energy boost

Jay

TIME & PRICE LIMITS

1173 .68 was the PRICE level prior to the May6th FLASH CRASH

got above that on open

1175 is next 5 level --1+1+7+5 = 14 = 5-- a CHANGE #
1179 is next 9 level-- 1+1+7+9= 18 = 9 --a FINAL #

Looks like 1175 might be the winner unless 10am make a higher high,
but the open could be the 13hr cycle high

Jay
ps
GREAT charts, thanks- Michael @ Columbia 1

BULLS STILL CHARGE- EKG oct 13

ONCE AGAIN we published the EKG below at 8:30am
and COMPARE with the SPx at the end of the day
Jay
STILL holding 70% ACCURACY
13 hour Cycle @ 10am might provide the hod today

Some backing off till mi day tomrrow- thsday

but Friday has the power to surge ahead

POSTIVE enrgy is CONCENTRATED this wkend and dissolves
by Monday morning where a fog of uncertainty takes over next week

ps
Isnt it preposterous the Republicans like Dick Army can get on a
public forum, and blame TARP on the Democrats.
Then tell the world that BA, Meryll, and Citi should have been
allowed to fail, when it was his party that saved them.

Its one thing to ignore the DOT COM bubble, and allow that to sort itself out,
but to claim the govt should have allowed CHAOS in the GLOBAL FINANCIAL world is just irresponsible, IMO.

and that rhetoric is simply POLITICALLY MOTIVATED

Jay

SPIRAL chart

SPIRAL Cal CONVERGENCE date is OCTOBER 10th, but that was good for 2007

but I KNOW SOMETHING HE DOESN'T

THIS YEAR it is OCTOBER 15th
MULTIPLE HIGH ENERGY CONVERGENCES THIS WEEKEND

NEXT WEEK WILL BE A SHOCKER
MULTIPLE NEG ENERGY CLUSTER + that cycle
convergence I have mentioned several times on 21 & 22

Jay

Oct 12th EKG

WOW- Darn good for sure
Jay
the reading indicates a change today, but it might take one more day b4 we see any price changes worth noting

55%/13 day at 11:59
60bars at noon
Could be the lod

I mentioned the FLUX indicator b4
It was showing VERY STRONG activity ALL of Jan, Feb till March 13th of 2009
as well as sporadic activity in 2008.

It has had Little or no activity since then, except for most recently on
June 26 ,27, 28 & we got JULY 2 to 9 lows
Aug 4th
Spt 2nd

and now IT HAS NOW BEEN VERY STRONG every day since OCT5th
IMO, as IVE recorded this phenomena, it occurs when we can expect serious price changes,
and I dont mean bullish changes.

Note the important cycles coming on Oct 21 & 22nd
500 tr days from oct27th, 2008
411 tr days from Mar9th 9th, 2009

Jay

HOW to SPARK the R E mkt

Anyone older than 50 who has bot and sold a few homes in the past 40 years would be able to tell the Fed what to do to get the Real Estate mkt moving again

The Economy and the RE mkt is near death- WHY ? because people who need $ for a mtge cant get it from the banks, and those who have $ to buy are waiting for lower prices or getting extras that would not normally be available to them;

STALLING Now has benefits

Its just the opposite of the FRENZY when sellers were getting top dollar PLUS
and buyers were paying a premium because they intended to FLIP the property within 6 months;
BUT THAT SHIP HAS SAILED and wont be back for many a day, month, year, decade.

Its really very simple
What makes people ACT = FEAR of course
FEAR OF WHAT
HIGHER INTEREST RATES would be ONE good reason to buy now.
Prices wont recover until a bunch of homes are sold and the tide begins to turn

BUT - will the Fed raise rates -- NO-- UH-UH
why, because Ben is a student of the great depression and HIS FEAR is creating
another one. He would rather be remembered as the savior of the US economy

So, the market drags out TIME as we approach that 70 year cycle in 2012

Anyone who has bot homes over the past 40 years has seen home selling increase as interest rates rise- very simple- based on fear, people want to pay less interest.
I dont remember the exact time periods, ((1980's, for one)) but I do remember thinking about not wanting paying a higher rate and not wanting to wait as rates were in a rising trend.

Jay

REMEMBER GOLD

this was gold a couple weeks ago at 1300
Internals DIVERGE as price climbs

Hadik expects 1370 price high & late October low

Anyone got an updated chart- email it to me and I will publish here

Jay

Oct 11th EKG & readings

ONE MORE HIGHER THRUST Tomrow at OPEN
then we make a LOW on WED at about 1pm
HOW LOW ?
Dont know, and cant even guess
Jay

Today calls for vitality & success, should make for a higher day

Activity index @ 9am hits an amazing HIGH of 500
has been quite low for many weeks at or near the 100 level

Power data shows today open higher, and attempt to stay at those levels
and so far the 1168.78 meets my projection for a failure under 1170

the EKG rising later does not mean the spx has to supercede
the 10am high and it really shouldn't.

Another banking crisis due to inability to FORECLOSE ??
doesnt seem to make sense?? but it might clog up the works,
if it lasts a month or more

VIX now under 20

Tuesday
Yesterday's UPBEAT mood CHANGES
expect disruptions

Wed
Early problems
challenging - obstacles & setbacks

Thsday
Look for bargains MID Day

Friday
POWER BOOST

Monday 18th
DONT RISK $$

Tues 19th
Disruptions

Wed 20th
expect some success

Thsday 21st
PROBLEMS & Struggles
expect a difficult day

Friday 22nd
UNSTEADY
return to common sense mid afternoon

Jay

1937-1942 Graph

COMPARE with 2007 to 2012

Ive made a possible comparison of April1940 peak & decline
to OCTOBER 22nd, if you can read it above

Jay

Power Graph, Week of Oct 11th

Weve been WAITING for a trend change since about SPT 20th,
but it seems to be like the energizer bunny

Monday's outlook at 39 hours at open till 10am,
along with the daily read & power graph
ALL seem to indicate ONE more thrust to maybe 1170

Once we see lower highs & lower lows starting to take effect we can be more certain
the trend has changed.

From the energy & power data graph, it would appear next week might show us
the way into that new trend

the new moon on the 8th did indicate a change

The Chart above from Michael at Columbia is not labeled,
but does seem to show 5 waves nearly complete from that low at 1051.

Since nothing serious is expected till the week after, we will remain vigilant
watching for evidence of such a trend change

Jay



Monday is a bank holiday

Jay

General road map for next 6 months

TYPO- sorry ,did not proof read, got distracted- sh happens.

It was 528 tr days from SPT 2nd, 2008 at OPEN dow @ 11,790
to Oct 6th at OPEN dow @ 10,998

IT WILL BE 528 tr days from MARCH 9th, 2009 to March 28th 2011

Thanks for pointing out my error, & SOME of you picked up the RIGHT
dates immediately while others,---- well we wont say any more.

Just Coincidence ?? maybe For educational purposes, maybe.

Can we USE this knowledge?

Not today, but the graph might be useful
some did not like it and compared it to an EKG--
ooohh, thats what its supposed to look like.

Jay

Oct7th EKG

Jay

October 6th EKG

Futures fell off earlier AM highs
After 9am, the energy turns negative thru Mid day on Friday, but that remains to
be seen if there is any effect on stocks

Has wave "C" peaked?

Flux indicator WILD for second day ina row- usually means something is about to happen
and IF we have topped out, then the first wave down in a series thru FEB 2nd should show up NOW

Jay

Jay

October 2010

One web site I was just viewing makes a good case for a 1987 type crash, but I really dont think thats what we have going this month

It looks like we will make a 4 month correction into Feb 2nd as the pivot low
but more about that later

Jay