Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Oct 20th EKG & AM commentary & closing

NOT quite as good as yesterday, but still showed the trend for the day
Yesterday's EKG was as good a gold.
will today be a repeat performance?

Today we have a convergence at 11am of the bar cycles{ 21hrs} & 13 day pivots
as shown above

It should lead to an afternoon rebound till 3:30pm
as shown above

Power data indicates a good start but retreating the rest of the day which is somewhat contrary to the EKG but not entirely

CNBC commentator telling the public that stocks are CHEAP, of course in relative terms, but we ALL know the stock market stretches evaluations in both directions.

Just as they got over bot for many months in 2007, they can get oversold for many months
also, and look cheap. Where was his recommendations on March 9th, 2009 ??
IMO there were many holes in his argument, but he is obviously attempting to attract buyers.
Its the OLD argument that IF you buy and hold for a long enuf time, your values will increase.
BUT then again, stock market has not made sufficient gains since year 2000
10 years of apathy.


Watch what happens in the politico arena IF we get a substantial decline in the next 10days
They, whoever they is, will be screaming- MR PRESIDENT !!- DO MORE TO HELP
what are you waiting for? another crash ??

more later


cementzak said...

that EKG makes sense really. we start with the end of wave a. then up for b, and then a c wave to complete this correction.


cementzak said...

ooops, looks like the a wave already finished yesterday.


Jay Strauss said...

5 -3 -5 from Monday's close
what was it?
wave A ?

now in wave B
3 waves a,b,c

next wave C

Just a correction in a continuing trend to Jan 24th with only a minor pause

OR do we really have a hole in the bucket this week

Remember I mentioned the days surrounding 22nd were heavy

that means tomrrow & Friday or nothing


cementzak said...

the best case for the bears is a nasty c wave to around the 1130 level

but it should turn here around 1177/1178, if not expect a new high


Abdullah said...

how painful it is to see the market going up.

Abdullah said...

What a strange morning. Well, let me rephraze that... what a manipulated morning.

Over the past few days the Fed did over 10 Billion in POMO operations. Then this morning they went straight to the TIPS market. In a nutshell, after the opening rush higher, the market started fading and then as usual "boom" it was rescued.

cementzak said...

a 90% retracement for wave B wouldn't be abnormal i guess. pretty much there now, and rising wedges across the board


Abdullah said...

My SHORTS are underwater ... either I need to add and AVG down or HOLD on??? Darn I hate to be in this position.

cementzak said...

fully short at 2469 (COMPQ)


Jay Strauss said...

good to see your comments
always clarity

Yes got just above 78% retrace

wave 2 or B
probably 2

But 5-3-5 down to 1160 is nuttin

STill on target for decline from 19th to 28th

got to bear thru this brief rally

IM right there with you

WAITING BEIGE book for whatever good that might do @ 1:45


Abdullah said...

WED = High Point

Jay Strauss said...

activity index rose to 300 this AM, and has backed off to 133 at present
at 2pm

All thats left is positive energy
at 3;30

beige book shows econ growth everywhere but housing mkt

How much more QE2 will be expected now


Reza said...

BAC almost positive even under pressure of 400 million selling.

Abdullah said...

On Monday they pushed the market higher, closing us out at about 11,143.

ON Tuesday we ended the day down 165 points, with most of the materials guys, and gold/silver/oil/copper etc down sharply.

On Wednesday program after program fired off and we were up 130 to 11108.

I have a mixed emotions on either to lean LONG and start buying or WAIT. I think I am done with my SHORT positions for now.

WAIT is all i can do for now ...

Abdullah said...

I am beginning to develop a deep hatred for the Fed / Banks / and Obama.

AS said...

Abdullah - I can imagine your state ....

Here were jay's reading for the week ...and my comments in hindsight

Monday 18th - not sure what this meant ...unless it was a warning for tues...

Tues 19th - Huge down

Wed 20th - Huge up
expect some success

Thsday 21st
PROBLEMS & Struggles
expect a difficult day

Friday 22nd
return to common sense mid afternoon

Based on this and the power graph and reading - it seems that the time to cover shorts is sometime tomm or friday morning ...

From a wave perspective if yest was a, today was b, then tomm/friday should be a nasty c down ...

AS said...

Jay - what are you seeing for next week ... i know you expected a major pivot on oct 21 /22 ...

Jay Strauss said...

Thanks AS
good reminder

Im waiting for 8:30am, not that it should be a game changer, and 26 hrs today is at 10am

13hrs opened down 150 dow on Tuesday
so today might open at a high

According to one of my sources
Oct 28th is more of a pivot low
and might be the IMPORTANT one

they are HOLDING up on THIN ICE
and it could give way any moment

Monday, 25th has 39 hrs at 10am and after a strong open, GOOD SHORT opp - mkt should cascade to a low at 11am on the 28th

I know it sounds like the I'm yelling WOLFE once too often, but
WE KNOW as long term traders
there has to be a sell off before the next rally in NOV

One week at a time is sometimes insufficient data, but I cant get too far ahead

MY 6 month graph SHOWS a LOW on the 27th


Jay Strauss said...

Think about what your FEELING

bulls feel most AWFUL when the mkt makes an extreme low

bears FEEL most AWFUL when the mkt makes its extreme high

and both occur right at the MOST IMPORTANT pivots -@ tops as well as bottoms

FUTURES pointing at ONE MORE high at 10am, or sooner this AM