Waves

WAVES 1 AND 2

If wave 2 is completed, then there is NO TURNING BACK TOMRROW

Jay

SPT 30th EKG

What level would it take for the month of SPT to hold its TITLE
for the best Spt in 70 years

WILL an October 1 & 4 panic ERASE all the gains of the year??
AND WHY ??

Today they are ignoring some tough news from europe, and even they are not responding
negatively

Whats the STORY with CHINA trading next 7days??
Is the dollar going to EXPLODE UP off a LOW
and the LOW of the year was at 70, not 78 where it is now- and WHY has the MEDIA
been pushing it lower

BEST SPT in 70 years, actually 71 years to 1939
but they dont mention it was coming off a SCARY MARCH low on 1939
which was 30% lower.

And they dont mention that HUGE DROP in 1940

The Kondratieff wave still projects the WINTER LOW in 2012 which is 70 years
from the JUNE lows of 1942,
UNTIL Then, we can get a serious short term panic of 3 days or 3 weeks
giving the indeces a chance to recover as they do most of the time.

Jay

Spt 29th EKG

Another success
Jay
Dollar coming off lows ???
Fed induced LOW ??

26 hrs are 10am = rebound high??

today calls for a CHANGE in trend

NEW highs 171
new lows 14

Level of new highs is WOEFULLY less than the levels on the
20th = 324/8
21st= 233/6

Jay

Spt 28th EKG

Darn Straight
Jay
just as projected by the Power graph, we seem to have a day that goes no where

maybe the CALM b4 the storm??

26hr cycle at 10am tomororw might indicate the hod, and the reading
calls for a change

Jay

Power Graph, Week of Oct 1st

ITS NOW 4pm, and FINALLY, they gave some back- the graph indicates more, but we will take it for now.

Remember its NOT the AMPLITUDE of either the EKG nor the POWER GRAPH.
the DIRECTION HAS MUCH MORE MEANING

The POWER graph & daily readings do sometimes conflict
I should have posted them this AM, but was tied up
SO here is the daily readings which might clarify the differences
Obviously we are not getting a severe sell off today as the EKG shows -
last 2 publications are a bust, but we are still in the 69% range from March 24th start

Monday
DONT BELIEVE WHAT YOU SEE or HEAR
which means the MEDIA is pursuing a false God
I find this reading OFTEN at MAJOR bottoms & Tops
it cuts both ways

Tuesday
PEAK creativity & productivity
Midnite high tide lends a hand to hold onto previous gains

Wed
AHH , heres where it STARTS TO gets hot
Charts edge has a strong down day
Helge is sometimes off by a couple days or his graphs are hard to pinpoint EXACTLY
UNSETTLING moods
EXPECT a CHANGE TODAY

Thsday
Review your $$ values
Stressful energy

Friday
Avoid $$ Risk
overwhelming details
We see the FLAWS- exaggerations & inequities

Saturday
Still not out of the woods


Monday
25th of Tishrei== could be a PANIC day
Financial efforts could be like a mine field today

Tuesday
Dont FOLLOW the CROWD


Jay

Spt 27th EKG, update & commentary

NOT TOO BAD overall
RSI took a DIVE after 2;30pm
AS did the OBV & MACD

the POWER graph shows tomrrow HOLDING ON for dear life,
and the BIG action starts WED.

PC ratios = 90% Bearish

Best Spt in 70 years

13 Hrs at 10am

Jay

Where ARE WE NOW ??

1942 to 2012 and we are fast approaching
Jay
An attempt to match up these 2 charts or overlay might or might not indicate a brief sell off

Im not looking for TOPS along the way, BUT actually an extended weak market.
I do see many similarities to year 2000 this year.
As the above chart shows, BRIEF , severe sell offs can & do occur
Is one coming in October as is typically expected??
Or sooner OR later
Jay

Heres a chart of the dow from 1936 to 1942

1942 + 70 years = 2012
Kondratieff wave winter or deflation trough = 2012
Ive posted it b4

Wave 1 = Wave 5

from Columbia's public charts
wave 1 from 1040 to 1065 =25 pts
wave 5 from 1123 to 1148 = 25 pts

Jay

GOLD at 1300 FIBO- whats NEXT

This came to my attention
thought you would like to see it

Traders hoping for Republican congressional take over
BUT what if NO DEAL
DOLLAR UP- gold down stocks down

the GOOD news is ALL OVER THE Media
BEST SPT for STOCKS since 1939
BUY GOLD, its NOT going to drop more than a few bucks if at all

SAME OLD -SAME OLD
51% BULLS
24% Bears

Of course the SENTIMENT is BULLISH
BUT, is the underlying value really there?

WHOM do you think they are preaching to ?
the un- suspecting PUBLIC - of course

Internal TECHNICAL SIGNS OF DISTRIBUTION
Date --- Dow----Adv/Decl-----Vol----arms 5---- Trin 5 ----trin 10
8th---10,387--------1495------4093--------78------390
14th--10,526--------998-------1416--------80-----402-------791
20th--10,753-------863--------1685

You can plainly see WANING Vol & Adv decline internals against a rising mkt
TRIN 10 issued a SELL SIGNAL on the 14th


More later
Jay

SPT 24th EKG & comments

FRED
as You can see from the EKG, the OPEN rally today is only a wave 2 reaction to the
5 waves dropped from 1148 to 1123 as per the previous publication

Yesterday was very moderate, but a clear warning bell, if your ears are on.-
an old CB terminology from the 70's.

THE TREND from SPT 21st at 2:30 to Oct4th is DOWN
How it gets to that pivot is up to the mkt, and thats what we try to determine, but we have to keep in mind the MAIN focus
Yes, I may have shorted a little early, and maybe I dont catch EVERY SWING
but DO stay tuned.

there is 68 hours of trading from 2;30 on the 21st to 4pm on the 4th OR open on 5th
I have been doing a study of tradings hours from lows to highs to lows, etc
EACH segment is at or very near FIBONACCI-- and why not, of course they would be

the Time segment mentioned above is 68 hours which is 55 + 13
You can do the math yourselves
July1 low to 13th high was 47 hrs = 34+13
To july20th low = 26hrs = 21+5
To Aug 9th high = 89 hrs
and so forth

More later

Jay

5 waves

This counts out more clearly as 5 waves from 1148 to 1122.79 on close

Futures this AM indicate a strong open to 1134, which would be
a 50% retracement

Power index shows a higher open then fall into close @ 204 bars at4pm

New home sales at 10am -- trigger for drop??

Jay

HIGHS & LOWS TILL Feb 2nd

SPX trading
STRESS points are
Spt 27
Oct4
Nov 5
Nov 29
DEc 29
Jan 11& Feb 2
I havent spent much time on 2011 as yet, so cant comment on it without any study.
High points interspersed with above
SPT 30
Oct 20
Nov21
Dec17
Jan 4
Jan24

Jay

More Detailed EKG for 23rd verses Wave

COMPARE to EKG below
Jay
graph from Columbia's public charts
Shows me 5 wave s DOWN from 1148 to 1123 = wave 1
Now in a rebound wave 2 till later today, probably 3 legs a,b,c

The Spt 23rd DETAILED EKG shows it the same

WAVE 3 should hit late today and Early tomrrow
as previously posted till about 11am.
WAVE 4 should last almost all day after the open tomrrow
wave 5 of this leg should occur MONDAY @10 10am .

I had projected a much deeper cut on this leg,
but it doesn't look like it will be that way.

I had mentioned 2 different scenarios- one hard & fast,
the other long and tedious.

This idea indicates the BIAS now thru early Feb has a
number of sharp retreats interspersed with sharp rallies,
offsetting each other as we make our way to a Lower trading PIVOT
Jay

History lesson

PART of RRMAN's history lessson

The full moon occurs on September 23rd and Tishrei 25-28 will take place between October 3rd and October 6th. Thus, we are now about to enter the time of year most vulnerable to mass hysterias.

While historically autumnal panics have taken the form of financial crises, one might note above that the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis andOctober 1973 Yom Kippur Arab-Israeli War, the two points in history when the world came closest to an all-out East-West nuclear war as measured by NORAD's DEFCON nuclear alert level, occurred in the context of the typical seasonal pattern for mass panics. In 1962 the highest DEFCON status was reached on October 26th, or Tishrei 28. In 1973, the highest DEFCON nuclear alert was reached on October 24th, or Tishrei 28 as well in that year. (Tishrei 28 is October 6th this year.)

Some might not see the connection between financial crises and geopolitical crises, but it is clear that one exists. Consider, for instance, how reversals from psychologically important thousand marks in the DJIA have correlated with geopolitical "shocks".

One of the most clear-cut examples of this occurred with the October 1973 Yom Kippur Arab-Israeli War when, upon retesting the "Magic 1000" mark, the DJIA turned down in connection with the outbreak of war in the Middle East. What followed was an OPEC oil embargo against the West and a severe contraction in the global economy precipitating a 40%+ decline in stock prices in the ensuing months:

more later
Jay

SPT 23rd EKG & commentary

FYI- I thought this might be important to see NOW
PRELIM EKG For Friday morning - see the above graph
Jay
yesterday was an 8 day high, but one day late for the averages,
and yet is might work out.

MY proprietary ADv- decl & vol ratios are way off the highs of SPT 9th and yet the price
of the mkt ran higher till Tuesday on WANING internals- What does that say about the TRUE strength of the mkt-- IMO<>

In view of RRMAN's history lesson concerning Oct6th THIS year
I had already proposed a decline starting this week, but ENDING temporarily on
OCTOBER 4th

Also we read that the next 100 days is marked with UNCERTAINTY
as the planets are clustered in the southern hemisphere-
supposedly a negative for human emotions & stock prices

OFF TOPIC, somewhat-
Maybe thats why the GOP wants to shut down our NATIONAL Govt and create havok
remember the reading of Tuesday-- Jarring & disruptive to CREATE HAVOK-
and so it might come to pass--- but I hope not, and I'm sure no one else, even those
that propose it, would like to see happen in reality.

Stressed FULL moon all day today
Jobless claims some what negative adds to the selling pressure

126BARS @ 4pm and or open tomrrow should lead to a lower open tomrow
along with
62%/ 13 day at 11:13
156bars at 11:30am
Neg energy at 10;30
DAILY hourly turn @ 11am
EARLY EKG reading shows sharply lower open
one reading for tomrrow also indicates early confusion

According to Monday's reading, the mkt should open lower and recover during the day
How do we anticipate our positions? with this knowledge is the next question.

I COULD PLAN to close out shorts my Friday AM,
Possibly sell the close for a scalp trade on Monday's open - but thats really high risk
_____________
Once in the clear tomrrow AM, It might be an advantage to watch and wait for
Monday's lower open to possibly buy long as the next HIGH turn is not expected
until the 30th @ 1pm
_________________________________

As members of this community, I expect all of you to add your trading expertise
as the mkt makes important levels when your indicators give you readings to share.

Much thanks
Jay

TNX

EQUITIES should right behind this OUTFLOW
Jay

Power Graph, Week of Spt 24th & 27th

NOTE on 23rd- LOOKS LIKE 22nd & 23rd maybe reversed

I should have published this on Sunday as it more clearly shows the CHANGE occurring after today

I Hate the idea of HOLDING over a wkend, but the graph and reading indicate
a LOWER open on Monday, Spt 27th, but it does give us choices.

I know Im putting the CART in front of the HORSE since NOTHING has happened
yet, so I'll wait to suggest what I would like to do on Friday, GIVEN the above comes to fruition

PS
The previous week power graph worked out quite well- obviously not 100%
but in general it did depict the daily mkt moves with decent accuracy

ITS NOW 3:30 and I think they've SHOT the works
disparity of SPX much less than DOW leading the overall mkt lower

They just had to over ride 1130 and get to 1150, almost -- exactly@ 1148.59
which adds up to the next higher level of 5
1+1+4+8 = 14 = 5

SPX heading lower at 3:35pm @ 1139.43 with still 25 minutes to go

I have NO idea why the FED hype would indicate a strong market
for anyone to buy into -- HYPE -HYPE - HYPE

FED said the economy sucks and they stand ready to apply more aid.
DUHH; doesnt that mean the economy is in deep doodoo
WHO would buy into that ?? retail buyers??
SIGNS of DISTRIBUTION
Last minute buyers who think they missed the rally -
Isnt that what makes a FIFTH WAVE??

204bars at 2PM CYCLED in right at FED time= pivot low
228bars @ 4pm and or open tomrrow

JAY

Spt 21st EKG - & end of day comparison

NEARLY PERFECT - STILL at 70%, and I dont really expect it to get any better than that
Jay
Looks about the same as yesterday

26 hours at 10am

Yesterday was perfect feel good day

new Wall St movie premiere

Headline News - recession ended in 2009

Pres town hall meeting on National TV

tomrrow is Autumn Equinox, often a turn date

23rd of month = 5 = CHANGE, can by off by a day in either direction

38%/13 day cycle at 10:42am
228bars at 4pm

Jay

Spt 20th EKG & comments

MY proprietary ADV decl & volume indicators are screaming SELL
their LEVELS TODAY are woefully lower than the levels they reached on SPT9th

Jay

As previously indicated
TODAY has little value for anyone
expect to put on the finishing touches

All of the data previously eminated from this site is about to come to fruition

Nothing anyone can say or do can change the course of events about to unfold - WHATEVER they may be

Obviously whatever happens will not be armagedon, but will have an impact none the less

As the Monday Spt27th read says- dont believe what you hear & read as SENTIMENT will go to an extreme negative.

its an OLD OLD STORY
When the Media is screaming disaster, its time to be contrary

Jay

Elliott wave Graph from Part of NY

No one can really know when this wave will end but the evidence suggests there could be a break this week.

It's the week after options Exp
it's the 20th of the month & last 10 days
Nearly every month since March 9th, 2009, the mkt has made lows at the first of each month and highs at or near the 20th of each month, and dropped off in the last 10 days
WILL that pattern be repeated?

This week
Monday calls for HIGH Expectations and we have a PRES speech emulating
__irrational exuberance, Maybe ??

Tuesday indicates something is out of control, havok, eruptive showdowns
What will it be & will that have any effect on trading ??

WEd
Unsettled, stumbling blocks

Thsday
Financial warning bells
expect CHANGE - FOR THE WORSE

Friday
Disagreements & poor communications
Illusionary truth

Monday 27th - DONT BELIEVE everything you hear or read

If we get a strong sell off, the NEG sentiment & RHETORIC will be RAMPANT
by Monday , the WORLD will be coming to an END--
See Monday's warning- DONT BELIEVE IT

Jay

SPT 17th SNEAK PEEK & Update

NOT great, but not too bad either- could count it either way
Jay
Heres a MORE complete view of today's EKG

SPX 1130 was at the top of the futures earlier, but now at 9am is waning some
CNBC hopefuls looking for break outs - glad to hear it-
everytime they profess a mkt slide---you can be sure its going the other way
Jay
Jaywiz index was .26 yesterday which is more bearish than it has reported for some weeks
PC ratios also 80% bearish for 4th day in a row

Power graph showed the day making a low intraday
possible times
neg energy at 11;41am
30bars at 12:30
60bars @ 3:00 pm

This year it seems to say
Buy RoshHashanah & Sell Yom Kippur- opposite to generally known predictions

In addition to Jupiter's general aptitude for money , expansion & good luck;
it is making its CLOSEST pass to Earth till 2022

Jay






JUSt as projected by the POWER index, we see the DAILY EKG confirming TOMRROW

CYCLE converge at 10am
SHARP DOWN open followed by renewed UPSIDE

DID anyone see that BIG put OPTION buy yet as there was LAST MONTH
on the day b4 expiration ?

Jay

SPT 16th PRELIM - EKG & UPDATE

For comparison, we can see the OBV not keeping pace with the rise in stock prices at he end of the day. And so far the AM futures indicate an open at 1130 prior to 8:30.

Once again we see the PROBLEM associated with the CLOSE of the day verses the data STREAM which is continuous- WHERE to cut if off ??
Today was obviously NOT portrayed very well, and now we wait for 9:30 to publish
the 17th OVER the sneak preview
Jay
As we can see, the end of day today "" SHOULD"" sell off into tomorrow at 10am as the SNEAK PREVIEW indicates - Jay

Late sell off is indicated leading to a LOWER OPEN on Friday

FRIDAY
Friday has a 10am has convergence
of
13hr pivot low
&
258Bars = 21 hr cycle pivot

Jay

Spt 15th EKG

OK AGAIN
Tommrow should make it to that MAGIC 1130 number
Once there, I will be looking for a short, maybe between 2pm & 4pm.
Jay
Let me KNOW if you want me to continue with the DAILY EKG

It seems to be quite valuable for those who trade daily
but if your not getting anything from it, then why bother

39hrs at 10am
126bars@noon
156 bars @ 2:00pm

Pos energy at 10am
Neg energy @ 2:17 And 2:52pm

Today calls for mid day low, possibly at 2 to 3pm
and late afternoon shift

Tomrrow calls for a tranquil day
but dont make any biz decisions

Friday calls for early difficulties - better later

Jay

SPT 14th EKG & comments

Couldnt ask for anything better

Today's cycles

13 day cycle pivot at 11am -- would normally add support for a later day recovery
the SELL off late day MIGHT be more appropriate for TOMRROW AM/OPEN

30bars at 10:30am
60bars at 1pm
90bars at 3;30pm

From the above, we would expect a bias to move lower most of the morning till at least 11am

retail sales data - non event

today's read calls for $$ stress
and a good day to lay low

Jay

Spt 13 to 17th POWER Data Graph

NOT EXACT, but how could anyone expect 100%
but quite a good representation of the week's trading
Jay
Some one suggested that BECAUSE we have not seen a 20% sell off as of Spt 13th,
IT WONT HAPPEN
WELL: DONT YOU BELIEVE THAT !!

THE WAVE structure as COLUMBIA had shown on his blog public charts as well as some others point it out as a distinct possibility.

Using the principle of WAVE equality,
we had an spx 210 pts loss from April 26th to July 1st
That would equate to a 210 pts loss from the current high of 1120 = spx 910

researching the ENERGY about to unfold in the next 3 weeks thru Oct4th indicates
that SUCH a sell off is POSSIBLE within this time frame

Jay

Update Spt 13th

Ive seen a similar chart at another site which also shows what some are labeling as wave 2
about to finish *shortly , and or wave X as ive labeled it.

*Shortly -could be at 10am today at the 26 HOUR cycle
Merc direct Sunday adds to today's boost,
and the futures this are positive to 1114 as I write this at 8:30am

The BRADLEY date appears to be turning in its HIGH today
as it was officially posted for Saturday

Once wave 2 - or wave X as I described is finished we can get 2 different results
1. can be an extended and lengthy decline over many weeks or months
OR
2. a QUICK sell off as Ive previously described due to the neg cluster of energy
from the 20th to Oct 4th.

IMO,
Door # 2 seems most APT to occur given the NATURE of the
WAVES we have already seen and are about to finish today

A FLAT at SPX 1120 area sets up one of the weakest wave structures indicating the
next wave becomes a THRUST lower matching the price decline of the FIRST major wave.

its called WAVE Equality
That would take the SPX down about 210 pts to 255 pts to SPX 910 at a minimum
and 875 as potential maximum

Where is that ILLUSIVE Crash ??

Is there REALLY going to be any set back, ??
or are we to suppose the moon is waiting for a landing ??

the Wave seems to be HOLDING ON FOR DEAR LIFE as we Mark time
everything happens in its OWN time, not according to what we would want

But we have taken on the task of determining when there will most likely be
serious sell off to the current trend- WE have NO idea WHY it would happen,
as that only becomes clear AFTER the fact.

We had already reached a 62% retrace {{555pts}} of the 08/09
loss of 900 pts at spx 1220
AND on JULY 1st they gave back 38.2% to spx 1010

NOW we see the SPX hitting the 1110 level last week which = a 78% retrace from 1010 -1130
Yes its possible to reach a little higher up to 1130 next week.
AND
We are at a BRADLEY turn date on the 11th which could easily hit on Monday, Spt 13th.
From there, the next Bradley date is OCT 1st
which coincides with a cluster of negative energy

Using FIBO math which has been discussed b4,
we can guess that the next important level would also be
62% of 555 = 344 pts taking the spx from 1220 to 875
Columbia's chart above shows that FIBO level

SINCE we are now at 1110, that would represent a loss of 255 pts
The NEXT QUESTION, of course is WHEN.

There are TWO HEAVY Negative ENERGY clusters coming up
first series from SPT 20 to 24th
Second series from Spt 30 to Oct4th

IMO, TIME & PRICE should converge as indicated above &
There is a possibility that one of those days would occur with loss of 1000 dow points -
most likely SPT 23rd.

Jay

Spt 10th EKG & later commentary

Didnt finish as low as pictured, but I really didnt expect it to, unless Monday
starts out that way to finish. If trading were on Saturday, the down leg went further.
otherwise, its a good pre visualization of the day ahead
Jay
Much to do about nothing
near repeat of yesterday

We mentioned spx 1110 as strong resistance at the 78% retrace level
1130 is 100%, and that still does have potential

Just in case they do move higher, that does NOT indicate a NEW BULL RUN
mainly because there can be an X wave higher in whats called an irregular wave;
this type of wave CAN also indicate a severe sell off immediately upon completion
be that Today, Monday or SPT 20th

Jay

NO EKG today

Too much confusion- cant get a good reading yet as of 8:30
it it changes
I'll publish later
thanks
Jay

Spt 9th EKG

60bars at 11am
90 bars at 1:30
120bars at 4pm
Futures opening higher on jobs, etc

energy low at 1:10 pm

Jay

Spt 8th EKG & end of day update

Couldn't ask for a better depiction of today's action
The OBV at days end appears like the open should sell off
And the energy atmosphere till about 1pm is moderately negative
BUT the EKG is not very negative.

POWER INDEX shows
a LOW tomorrow - Thsday
Fri Flat
Monday UP
Down on Tuesday
Looks like today is day ON HOLD

258bars at 12;30
Neg energy at 1:30
could be the lod as shown above

End of day does not have to close lower, but there is some disruptive energy at 4;24pm

IF the EOD does end lower, then there is an over ride of the 258 bar /21hr low leading us look for the next 21hr cycle to head lower

Jay